Words and phrases sure thing no doubt most likely impossible safe bet out of the question out of reach pig’s might fly maybe no way long odds long shot low risk doubtful certain rarely come rain or shine expected unlikely definitely rock solid never
What do these words and phrases mean?
perhaps once in a blue moon possibly
London to a brick shot in the dark sporting chance probably you’ve got Buckley’s in the bag ten to one

Once in a blue moon
Meaning: almost never, very seldom hardly ever
Origin: when the moon is a crescent some people say the other part has a bluish colour to it. This ‘blue moon’ is rare.
In the bag
Meaning : certain of success, fixed, sure thing
Origin: Game birds were used in fighting and were taken to the where they would fight in a bag. Owners of the birds would say to other competitors that victory was
‘in the bag’ meaning they were sure to win. We still use this expression to mean we are certain of success.

What is the chance of this happening?
Match examples of situations and events to different likelihoods e.g.
• Rain today
• School will finish early
• A police car will go past the school with its siren going
• Lunch time will be extended
• Lunch bell will go on time
• Your family will win lotto
• Someone will away in the class because they are sick
• You will fall over in the playground and hurt yourself
• You will eat your lunch
• You will go to bed on time
• It will be cloudy tomorrow
• You will eat ice-cream for dessert tonight
• Your favourite football team will win the grand final this year
Which chance word or expression would you choose to represent the likelihood of these occurring? Can you think of another more suitable word? uncertain very likely very unlikely a good chance extremely likely in the bag maybe never pig’s might fly

The NEW brand of cereal has 6 new swap cards for you to collect. One in every packet.
Investigation: How many packets of the new cereal would you have to buy in order to get one of each swap card?
Number
1
2
3
4
5
6
Frequency Total Use the frequency table to keep a record of the results of your experiments. Numbers on the table can be changed to colours.
How many packets would you need to buy to get one of each card? _______
Conduct the experiment 20 times.
What is the average number of boxes you would need to buy?___________

Class spreadsheet – results of group experiments ( 20 experiments)
Counters Dice Cards Spinners
1
2
3
Experiment
20
Total
Average
Table needs to have a line for each number 1-20

11
16
1
3 4 2 5
6 7 8 9 10
12
17
13
18
14
19
15
20
Pick your favourite numbers:
What chance do you think you have of picking the selected numbers?!
1 number ___________________ 2 numbers _________________
3 numbers __________________ 4 numbers _________________

1
2
3
Frequency table – numbers selected over 10 games.
Number Tally Total Fraction %
20
Share ideas: How could you modify the game to increase your chances of winning the game?

Steps to follow:
1. Colour your spinner according to the given instructions.
2. Place a paperclip on the spinner in the centre of the circle. Use a pencil to hold the paperclip in place. The paperclip should be able to spin around 360 degrees.
3. Flick the paper clip and note where the paper clip lands.

Example: Simplify 18/24
Keys used:
Numerator
Denominator
Simp
Steps to follow:
Press
1. 18  24 
2.

3.

4.
 
Display
8/24
18/24 S
18/24 S 9/12
9/12 S ¾
Note: You may need to press  and  more than once to get the fraction to its simplest form.

Example: Convert 6/40 to a %
Steps to follow:
Press
1. 6  40 
2.

3.

Display
6/40
6/40
15%
%
Keys used:
Numerator
Denominator
Percentage Key
Enter
Note: arrow represents cursor on display

Packets of cereal
12
13
14
15
Tally
IIII
III
IIII
III
Frequency
4
3
4
3
Steps to calculate the average/mean:
Press
4 x 12 
3 x 13 
4 x 14 
3 x 15 
 (Recall total)
  
Display
4 x 12 = 48
3 x 13 = 39
4 x 14 = 56
3 x 15 = 45
(need a m above 12)
(need a m above 13)
(need a m above 14)
(need a m above 15 )
188 (m above 188)
188 ÷ 14 = 13.4
Note: If you then press the  key twice it will clear the memory.