Evolving Trade and Economic
Architecture in the Asia-Pacific Region:
Visions, Reality, Gaps, Layers
Robert Scollay
New Zealand APEC Study Centre
University of Auckland
Visions
 Trans-Pacific
 East Asia-Centric
Trans-Pacific Vision
 Catalyst: end of Cold War and creation of APEC
 Accelerant: East Asia-North America economic
interdependence
 Vehicles
 APEC
 encountered limitations of “concerted unilateral” approach to trade
liberalisation
 FTAAP
 APEC-wide FTA
 TPP
 ‘stepping stone’ to FTAAP?
East Asia-Centric Vision
 Catalyst: East Asian economic crisis 1997-98
 Spur to “East Asian regionalism”
 Accelerant: expansion of East Asian production networks
 Vehicles
 ASEAN Plus Three
(China, Japan, Korea [CJK] and ASEAN)
 EAFTA (East Asian FTA)
 monetary and financial initiatives

‘Chiang Mai Initiative (CMI)
 ASEAN Plus Six/East Asian Summit
(including Australia, New Zealand, India)
 CEPEA (Comprehensive Economic Partnership for East Asia)
 key vehicle for New Zealand engagement with East Asia
Today’s Reality
“Noodle Bowl”:
 Over 30 bilateral FTAs
 Multiple impulses (no single “vision”)
 Intra-East Asia
 Trans-Pacific
 East Asia-Australasia
 Plurilateral
 NAFTA, AFTA, P4
 “ASEAN Plus FTAs”
 “ASEAN Plus One”: ASEAN-China, ASEAN-Japan,
ASEAN-Korea
 AANZFTA (ASEAN-Australia and NZ FTA)
Gaps – East Asia
 ASEAN has completed links with all prospective EAFTA and CEPEA
partners
 But CJK link is missing from both EAFTA and CEPEA
 can this link be completed? how? CJK FTA?
 implications for East Asian leadership
 CJK-ANZ link missing from CEPEA (except China-NZ)
 FTAs under negotiation: Australia-China, Australia-Japan, Australia-
Korea, NZ-Korea
 under discussion: NZ-Japan
 India-CJK and India-ANZ links missing
 India-NZ FTA negotiations about to start
 Taiwan and Hong Kong
 major players in East Asian trade
Gaps – Trans-Pacific
 TPP currently a “stepping stone”
 Questions for moving beyond “stepping stone” status
 participation by Japan? Korea? China?
 ASEAN “buy-in”?
 beyond Singapore, Brunei, Viet Nam
 CJK link becomes a question mark here as well


complicated by concerns over relative positions vis-àvis USA
could expanded TPP balance emerging G2?
Layers
Layers of regional economic integration:
 Community-building
 agendas in APEC, ASEAN+3, ASEAN+6, ASEAN
 Monetary and financial integration
 pursued mainly within ASEAN+3 at present
 Common markets
 ASEAN Economic Community, ANZ Single Economic Market
 Trade
 gains from trade: FTAAP > CEPEA > EAFTA
(also as steps towards multilateralism)
 political economy: ?
 “decoupling” v. Trans-Pacific interdependence
Does Layering Provide a Basis for
Coexistence of the Two Visions?
 East Asian and Trans-Pacific visions pursued
within different layers of integration?
 Provide for both East Asian identity and trans-
Pacific interdependence?