“Money itself isn’t lost or made, its simply transferred from one
perception to another.”
Gordon Gekko, Wall Street, 1987
Victor Adair
White Bear Capital Corporation
www.VictorAdair.com
Vancouver Resource Investment Conference
January 23, 2011
Today’s topics
• Way more money has been borrowed than
will ever be repaid
Today’s topics
• Way more promises have been made than
will ever be kept
Today’s topics
• “Its not a question of enough, Pal. It’s a
zero sum game, someone wins, someone
loses. Money itself isn’t lost or made, its
simply transferred from one perception to
another.” Gordon Gekko, Wall Street, 1987
Today’s topics
• Why do you believe what you believe?
Today’s topics
• “You gotta get your mind right.” Cool Hand
Luke, 1967
Today’s topics
• What am I going to do today to make
some money?
Today’s topics
• What are my market thoughts today?
Way more money has been
borrowed…
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The greatest credit bubble in history
Consequences
Private sector de-leveraging
Public sector “to the rescue…”
Austerity / stimulation
Inflation / deflation
Risk on / risk off
Crisis / muddle through
Way more promises have been
made…
• Gov’ts: Break promises? Cut services?
Raise taxes? Raise tariffs? Default?
Blame someone else! Get re-elected!
• Central Banks: Print money? Devalue?
Interest rates? Reserve requirements?
• Who suffers? Who pays? Who benefits?
Who wins?
“Money is…transferred from one
perception to another”
• Psychology is more important than math
• Its easier to swim with the current than
against it – identify the prevailing
perception…
• While watching for signs that it may be
changing!
Why do you believe what you
believe?
• You’ve got an opinion? You’ve got a risk.
• Markets can remain irrational far longer
than you can remain solvent.
• “When the facts change, I change my
mind. What do you do ,sir?” J.M. Keyes
• Know where to get out before you get in.
You gotta get your mind right
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It is what it is.
It ain’t fair.
It ain’t right.
It can’t continue.
It is what it is.
What am I going to do today to
make some money?
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I’m in.
I’m open.
I anticipate, wait for confirmation, and act.
I know my time frame.
I know my edge.
I manage my risk.
Its only a trade. (No more masterpieces!)
What are my market thoughts
today?
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Marco views shape perceptions
China: Bubble? Who’s in charge?
Euro: reports of death exaggerated?
Gold: less urgency?
CAD: everybody loves Canada?
Stocks: it’s a bull mkt! APPL 21% of NAZ
Correction (at least) coming!
www.VictorAdair.com