Chapter 14 Financial Statement Analysis McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2010 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 14 Financial Statement Analysis 14-2 14.1 The Major Financial Statements 1.Income statement 2.Balance sheet 3.Statement of cash flows 14-3 Income Statement • Four broad types of accounts: – Cost of goods sold – General and administrative expenses – Interest expense – Taxes on earnings • Common Size income statements – Divide each account by net sales – Eliminates size distortions 14-4 Table 14.1 Consolidated Statement of Income 14-5 Balance Sheet • Assets – Current – Long-term • Liability (current and long term) and stockholders’ equity • Common size balance sheet – Divide each account by total assets – Each account presented as a percent of the total 14-6 Table 14.2 Consolidated Balance Sheet A 14-7 Table 14.2 Consolidated Balance Sheet B 14-8 Statement of Cash Flows • A financial statement showing a firm’s cash receipts and cash payments during a specified period. – Recognizes transactions only if cash changes hands. – “Undoes” much of accrual accounting to get at cash changes – Does not allocate capital expenditures through time via depreciation as income statement does 14-9 Statement of Cash Flows Three main sections • Cash flow related to operations • Cash flow related to investing • Cash flow related to financing • Allows the analyst to understand which of the firm’s activities are using and which generating cash. 14-10 Statement of Cash Flows • Not all sources of cash are equally sustainable. – Would you rather invest in a firm that is primarily generating cash through operations or through financing? • It is difficult to evaluate whether the amount of cash flow related to investing is ‘good’ or ‘bad.’ What else would we need to know? – Rate of return on the investment – Comparable data over time or from competitors 14-11 Table 14.3 Consolidated Statement of Cash Flows 14-12 Financial Leverage and ROE • The relationship among ROE, ROA, and leverage: • ROE = Net Profits / Equity • ROA = EBIT / Total Assets D ebt R O E (1 T ax rate) R O A ( R O A Interest rate) E quity 14-17 14.4 Ratio Analysis 14-20 Ratio Analysis • Purpose of Ratio Analysis – Understand the factors that affect performance • Methods – Trend analysis – Comparative analysis – Combination of the two • Use by External Analysts – Important information for investment community – Important for credit markets 14-21 DuPont Decomposition of ROE ROE can be decomposed into various ratios that reflect different aspects of a firm’s performance: ROE Net Profit Pretax Profit (1) Tax Burden Pretax Profit EBIT EBIT Sales (2) Interest (3) Sales Assets (4) Assets Equity Margin Turnover (5) Leverage Burden 14-22 DuPont Decomposition of ROE ROE Net Profit Pretax Profit (1) Tax Burden Pretax Profit EBIT (2) Interest EBIT Sales (3) Sales Assets (4) Assets Equity Margin Turnover (5) Leverage Burden • Ratio (1) Tax Burden (TB): – Measures the percentage of pretax profit that the firm keeps after paying taxes • Ratio (2) Interest Burden (IB): – Measures the percent of EBIT kept after paying interest expense Pretax Profit EBIT Interest Expense – EBIT EBIT – This ratio is 1 if the firm has no debt 14-23 DuPont Decomposition of ROE ROE Net Profit Pretax Profit (1) Tax Burden Pretax Profit EBIT (2) Interest EBIT Sales (3) Sales Assets (4) Assets Equity Margin Turnover (5) Leverage Burden • Ratio (3) Operating Profit Margin – Measures the percentage of sales revenue that remains after subtracting cost of goods sold, selling and administrative expenses and depreciation • Ratio (4) Asset Turnover Ratio (ATO) – Measures the efficiency of the firm at generating sales per dollar invested in the assets – Note: Margin x ATO = ROA 14-24 DuPont Decomposition of ROE ROE Net Profit Pretax Profit (1) Tax Burden Pretax Profit EBIT (2) Interest EBIT Sales (3) Sales Assets (4) Assets Equity Margin Turnover (5) Leverage Burden • Ratio (5) Leverage ratio – Leverage ratio = 1 + Debt / Equity – The leverage ratio is a measure of the percentage of debt in total capitalization. – Note that it appears that using more debt as a percent of capital will increase ROE, but using more debt also reduces the interest burden ratio 14-25 DuPont Decomposition of ROE ROE Net Profit Pretax Profit (1) Tax Burden Pretax Profit EBIT (2) Interest EBIT Sales (3) Sales Assets (4) Assets Equity Margin Turnover (5) Leverage Burden • Compound leverage factor (CLF) – – – – = Interest burden x Leverage If the CLF > 1, the use of debt will increase ROE If the CLF < 1, the use of debt will decrease ROE CLF will be greater than 1 if ROA > Interest rate on debt What does this imply about when firms should use more debt? 14-26 More on Ratios 14-28 Ratio Analysis using GI Asset Utilization Ratios (2010 data for GI) Sales 1. Total Asset Turnover $144,000 ($518,400 Avg. Assets 2. Fixed Asset Turnover 3. Inventory Turnover Sales 4 32 ,000 )/2 $144,000 Avg. Fixed Assets ($259,200 Cost of Goods Sold Average Inventory 216,000)/2 $79,200 ($ 1 29,600 108,000)/2 . 303 . 606 Industry Average 0.40 0.70 . 485 0.50 4. Average collection period or days sales in receivables Avg. Accounts Receivable Sales / 365 s ($43,200 $36,000)/2 $144,000 / 365 100.4 days 60 days How will these ratios affect ROA and ROE? 14-29 Ratio Analysis using GI Liquidity Ratios (2010 data for GI) 1. Current Ratio Current Assets Current 2. Quick (Acid Test) 3. Cash ratio Current Liabilitie s Assets - Inventory Current Liabilitie s Cash Marketable Securities Current Liabilitie s $259,200 Industry Average 2.0 . 97 $ 266 ,272 $259,200 - $129,600 . 49 $266,272 $86,400 $43,200 $266,272 . 324 1.0 0.70 14-30 Ratio Analysis using GI Market Price Ratios (2010 data for GI) $21.00 1.Market-to-Book Price stock . 1186 $ 177 ,128 / 1,000 Book Value/sha 2.P/E ratio 3.ROE Also: re Price stock $21.00 $5,285/1,0 Earnings/s hare Net Income $ 5,285 Equity at Book Value $177,128 ROE P/B P/E .1186 Industry Average .69 3 . 97 00 2 . 98 % 8.0 8.64% 2.98% 3.97 14-31 Economic Value Added K = 12% E1 = $1Book Value $8.33 PLOUGH BACK RATIOS Growth Rates 10% 12% 14% 0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 50% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 75% 7.5% 9.0% 10.5% 10% 12% 14% 0% 8.33 8.33 8.33 25% 7.89 8.33 8.82 50% 7.14 8.33 10.00 75% 5.56 8.33 16.67 10% 12% 14% 0% 1.00 1.00 1.00 25% 0.95 1.00 1.06 50% 0.86 1.00 1.20 75% 0.67 1.00 2.00 Price P/BV 14.6An Illustration of Financial Statement Analysis 14-39 Table 14.12 Key Financial Ratios of Growth Industries (GI) 2010 annual report claimed that GI had a successful year, stating that as in the year before, sales, assets and operating income all continued to grow at 20%. Is the report correct? 14-40 Table 14.13 GI Statement of Cash Flows 14-41 14.7 Comparability Problems 14-42 Comparability Problems Ratios must have a benchmark, but it can be difficult to compare data of different firms • Different inventory valuation – LIFO and FIFO • Depreciation problems – Accounting depreciation Economic depreciation – Different depreciation methods at different firms – In periods of inflation depreciation is understated in economic terms and real economic income is overstated 14-43 Comparability Problems • Inflation and interest expense – Nominal interest rates include an inflation premium to compensate for erosion in the real value of the principal. – Conceptually then, from an economic viewpoint part of interest expense is actually principal repayment. 14-44 Fair Value Accounting Fair value accounting uses market values rather than book values in the firm’s financial statements. – Market value is a truer picture of the current value of the firm, – Market value is forward looking, book value is backward looking – Trend is toward market value accounting 14-45 Fair Value Accounting Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) Rule 157 classifies assets in one of three buckets: – Level 1: Assets that are traded in active markets and should be valued at market prices – Level 2: Asset that are not actively traded, but their values may be estimated from market data on similar assets – Level 3: Assets that can only be valued with inputs that are difficult to observe. •Level 2 and Level 3 assets may be valued using pricing models and the values may be ‘marked to model’ 14-46 Quality of Earnings: Accounting Choices Quality of earnings refers to the realism and sustainability of reported earnings, • Allowance for bad debts must be realistic • Extraordinary and Non-recurring items are sometimes pretty ordinary and common • Earnings smoothing is pervasive – Revenue & expense recognition options – Engaging in contingent off-balance sheet assets (certain leases) or liabilities (selling credit default swaps) that have unknowable effects on earnings 14-47 International Accounting Conventions • Reserving practices – Overseas firms have far more discretion in their ability to set aside reserves for future contingencies (or not) than U.S. firms have. – This means foreign firms’ earnings are more subject to managerial manipulation • Depreciation – Foreign firms typically use accelerated depreciation on their financial statements and U.S. firms don’t, so foreign firms have lower reported earnings, ceteris paribus. 14-48 International Accounting Conventions • Intangibles – Treatment of intangibles varies widely between countries. 14-49 Figure 14.2 Adjusted Versus Reported Price-Earnings Ratios 14-50 IFRS The International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) have been adopted by the European Union and by over 100 countries. • In 2007 the SEC began allowing foreign firms to list their securities in U.S. markets if they prepared their statements using IFRS • In 2008 the SEC ruled that large U.S. multinational firms may start using IFRS rather than GAAP in 2010 and that all firms should use IFRS by 2014. • IFRS standards are principle based rather than rules based 14-51 14.8 Value Investing: The Graham Technique 14-52 Benjamin Graham • Founder of modern fundamental analysis • Graham believed careful analysis of a firm’s financial statements could turn up bargain stocks and his work was used by generations of analysts • He developed many different rules for determining the most important financial ratios, as his ideas became popular they stopped working. 14-53