Avon and Somerset
Police and Crime
Needs Assessment
October 2013
Avon and Somerset Police and Crime Needs Assessment
What is the PCNA?
• A shared overview of the main crime, community
safety and criminal justice issues, risks and threats
facing Avon and Somerset
• It aims to:– Inform our planning for 2014 and beyond
– Develop and inform our understanding of what works
• It builds upon a wide range of partnership
information and analysis
• It is refreshed on an annual basis
Avon and Somerset Police and Crime Needs Assessment
What information have we used?
Organisational Info.
Performance reviews
Risk registers
PESTELO analyses
I-Quanta Comparisons
Partnership data
Criminal Justice data
Re-offending profiles
Criminogenic need
Crime / ASB statistics
Constabulary Reviews
Operating Model
Operation Check
Predicting Demand Profile
Value for Money Profile
Strategic Policing Requirement
Analytical Profiles
Thematic profiles e.g.
Disproportionate Victimisation
Quality of Life in Bristol
PCC priority profiles
Socio-Demographic Info
Census data / Topic Reports
Changing population profile
ACORN profiles
Consultation
OPCC Public Consultation
PACT priorities 2013
Police & Crime Survey
Partnership Assessments:NIM Assessment 2013
Joint Strategic Needs
Assessments (Public Health)
Community Safety
Assessments:
Safer Somerset, South
Gloucestershire, Safer Bristol,
North Somerset, BaNES
National Resources
POLKA / College of Policing
UCL Changing crime trends
Crime Survey for England and
Wales
LAPE / Alcohol-related harm
I-Quanta Comparisons
Avon and Somerset Police and Crime Needs Assessment
We scanned the changing environment
Environmental
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Demographic change
Population growth
Migration
Increasing diversity
Welfare
• Safeguarding
• Mental Health demand
• Welfare Reform
• Alcohol related harm
Economic
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Hard pressed families
Rising personal debt
Under-employment
Price inflation
Technology
• Use of social media
• Mobile technology
• New criminal tactics
• New cyber technol.
Social
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Prevalent alcohol use
Use of legal highs
Housing reform
Young people (NEET)
Political / Organisational
• Austerity
• Organisational reform
• Commissioning
• Trust and confidence
Avon and Somerset Police and Crime Needs Assessment
Overall risk of crime and ASB is falling but
Avon and Somerset Police and Crime Needs Assessment
There is substantial unmet need and
significant levels of unreported crime
• Ranging from low level incidents to
most serious crimes and threats
– ASB, serious sexual offences, CSE,
domestic abuse, hate crime, FGM,
Human Trafficking, terrorism
• Some groups are at a higher risk
– Young people, BME communities,
deprived neighbourhoods
• We can not fully assess risk in these areas, but we can
improve intelligence, confidence and pro-activity
Avon and Somerset Police and Crime Needs Assessment
We are listening to
what matters to our communities
Avon and Somerset Police and Crime Needs Assessment
And the services people expect
…FROM THE POLICE
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Be there when needed
Do what they say they are going to do
Treat people fairly and with respect
Work visibly in the community
Be accessible
Tackle the issues that impact greatest
on quality of life
…FROM CRIMINAL JUSTICE
• Rehabilitation – esp. drugs and alcohol
• Still penalties for those that cause the
most harm
• Restorative community-based
reparation
VICTIMS OF CRIME
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Respond quickly
Explain the process / next steps
Keep victim informed
Treat with consideration and respect
DOMESTIC ABUSE VICTIMS
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More female officers
Listen. Believe me, don’t judge
Show you care / give support
Take the issue seriously
BURGLARY VICTIMS
• Take action - investigate
• Give feedback
Avon and Somerset Police and Crime Needs Assessment
The Partnership Environment is changing and
becoming more complex
Avon and Somerset Police and Crime Needs Assessment
Key Partnership risks include
The Changing Environment:
• Increasing safeguarding demands
• Pressure on low level acquisitive crime and ASB
• Opportunities for organised crime and exploitation
• High levels of alcohol-related harm and victimisation
• Challenge of meeting diversifying community needs
• Specific groups being disproportionate affected – Young people
– People with mental health needs
– Disadvantaged / deprived communities
Avon and Somerset Police and Crime Needs Assessment
Key Partnership risks include
Effectively managing demand:
• No joined up picture of community issue resolution
• Informing and responding to the public/victim voice
• Maintaining visibility and accessibility
• Increasing confidence to report serious crime
• Limitations to knowledge of high risk hidden harm
• Disproportionate demand
– young people
– priority neighbourhoods
– BME communities
Avon and Somerset Police and Crime Needs Assessment
Key Partnership risks include
The changing partnership environment:
• Budget reductions
– Dis-investment, retracting to core responsibilities,
organisational reform
• Changing commissioning landscape
– Complex delivery structures, operational management,
loss of knowledge and expertise
• CJS efficiency / effectiveness – capacity, file quality
• Victim need / satisfaction – no holistic understanding
• Culture and behaviour: PBR, integrity
Avon and Somerset Police and Crime Needs Assessment
Recommendations
The Changing Environment:
• Invest in prevention to minimise future demand
– Alcohol, diversionary activities, priority neighbourhoods
– Advice, information, signposting
• Increase focus on safeguarding from serious harm
– Agency roles and responsibilities
– Mental heath, young people, cyber enabled crime, OCGs
• Develop collective knowledge and capability in
response to diversifying population
Avon and Somerset Police and Crime Needs Assessment
Recommendations
Effectively managing demand:
• Improve processes for engaging and empowering
communities to resolve issues of local concern
• Invest in improving understanding of and response to
hidden harm
– Information sharing, research, analysis, 3rd party reporting
• Renewed focus on what works
– Improvements in inbuilt security measures, partnership
working, techniques and practices
Avon and Somerset Police and Crime Needs Assessment
Recommendations
The changing partnership environment:
• Improve cross agency co-ordination and planning
– Planning for change, managing demand at first point of
contact, roles and responsibilities, integrated services
• Partnership working with a greater focus on the
most problematic issues, cases and localities
– IOM, Troubled Families, priority neighbourhoods
• Improve understanding of victim satisfaction and
experience across the CJS