Chap 3 Developing Predictive Hypotheses

```Chapter 3
Developing Predictive Hypotheses
• Cognitive & Non Cog Abilities
• Personality
• Criteria
Chap 3 Developing Predictive Hypotheses
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Conceptual & Operational Definitions
Predictors & Criteria
• F. Kerlinger’s definitions
– Concept or construct: What’s the difference?
– Theory v. hypothesis: what’s the difference?
• Predictive Hypothesis:
– Grounded in theory (explanation relationships)
– Predictors & Criteria: defined at two levels:
• conceptual & operational: What’s the difference?
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• Predictors (KSAOs, other attributes)
– (independent vars for experimental research)
• Give some examples with operational definitions
• Criteria (performance/results)
– Outcomes (dependent vars for experimental research)
• Give some examples with operational definitions
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Theory Building and Testing
fig 3.1 p 53
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1. Theory:
– predictor construct (height) is related to
2. Predictive hypothesis (testable):
– predictor measure (height in inches) is related to
– Criterion measure (number dunks in 2 minutes)
3. Predictor measure is valid measure of height
4. Criterion measure is a valid measure of basketball ability
5. Predictor measure is related to the Criterion construct
– (confirms prediction and supports theory)
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Theory and Practice
• Specification of Population
– For what populations does the theory hold?
• Why would this be important?
• Give some examples,
– e.g. women in the military?
– Geographical differences?
• Specification of time intervals
– What’s the optimal timeframe for criterion collection?
• When and how long should the criterion?
– Give examples for jobs with different learning curves
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• Specifying functional relationships
– Linear
• Give examples linear relationships
– Curvilinear
• Give examples of curvilinear relationships
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Criteria
• Criterion constructs
– Inferring Constructs from Measures
– A theory of Performance
– Performance Components and Determinants
– Contextual Behavior
– Trainability
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Predictors & Predictive Hypotheses
• Avoid “folklore theories”
– Use standardized measures proven to work
– E.g. Cognitive ability, which is usually superior to
non-cognitive measures.
• Cognitive Factors (ability to think)
• perceive, process, evaluate, compare, create,
• Understand, manipulate (ideas), reason
– 75 years of Factor Analytic studies
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Cognitive
• 7 Primary Mental abilities (Thurstone, ‘38)
– Verbal comprehension
– Word fluency
– Spatial ability
– Perceptual speed
– Numerical facility
– Memory
– Inductive reasoning
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Cognitive Abilities
• General Mental Ability (GMA) intelligence
– “Processes of
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Acquiring,
Storing (memory)
Retrieving
Combining, (relationships)
Comparing, (relationships)
Using in context new concepts (abstraction)”
– (Humphreys, ‘79)
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GMA
• Spearman’s (1927)“g”
– Fluid intelligence (Gf)
• Basic reasoning
– Crystallized intelligence (Gc)
• Acquired knowledge (e.g. vocabulary tests)
• Carroll (1993) using factor analytic studies
– Three stratum model
• First order factors (several)
• Second order factors (R. B. Cattell’s Gf, Gc)
• Third order “g” (like Spearman’s)
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Job Specific Ks & Ss
• O*Net – three occupational skills list
– Basic
– Cross functional
– Occupation specific
• Think of some for the IO psychologist’s job
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Personality Constructs
• Trait – habitual way of thinking or behaving in
response to a variety of situations.
– Value, goal, beh tendency to seek or avoid
– Sometimes role specific
– Called “work styles” “occupational values”
(O*Net)
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Personality
• Five Factor Model (universal)
– NEO (CANOE)
• Guion & Highhouse
– Surgency (extravert, dominance, assertive)
– Agreeableness (likeability, friendly)
– Conscientiousness (responsible, dependable)
– Emotional Stability
– Open to experience (intellectance)
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Personality
• Integrity and conscientiousness
– Not engaging in counter-productive behavior
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Stealing,
embezzlement
cheating customers
Others?
– Trustworthy
– Work hard without surveillance
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Personality
• Other traits (just a few)
– Core Self-evaluation (Judge, Eraz, Bono)
– Locus of Control (Rotter)
• Smith, Trompenaars & Dugan (2007)
– PA/NA (positive/ negative affect)
• Watson, Clark, Lee Tellegen (1988)
– GCOS
• General Causality Scale Description (Deci & Ryan)
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Personality
some questions
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Are traits malleable?
Are they job specific?
How, if so should they be used in selection?
What needs to be done to improve their use?
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Physical and Sensory Competencies
• Physical Characteristics
– At what cost are accommodations to the
• Find some examples?
– What role does human factors play?
• Physical Abilities
– Fleishman, Hogan (have studied them)
– Are they important in sports?
– Are they important in the military?
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Non-Cognitive
• Emotional Intelligence (Goleman, ‘95)
– Perceive, appraise, express emotions
• (Mayer & Salovey, ‘97)
– Lacks conceptual coherence
– Not psychometrically sound
– Redundant with other measures?
• E.g. cognitive ability, personality traits?
– (Matthews, Roberts, & Zeidner, ‘04)
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Experience, Education, Training
• Credentials are rarely useful
– Unless based on a Job Analysis
• Some majors may be useful
– If knowledge is comparable to professions
• Can you think of some?
• Can competencies be assessed via testing?
– What would Prometric say?
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Team Selection Predictors
• Technical (often needed)
• Stevens & Campion (‘94) Team KSAs
• Interpersonal & Self-management
• The knowledge, skill, and ability requirements for teamwork:
Implications for human resource management (Michael J. Stevens
Michael A. Campion, ‘94)
• Staffing Work Teams: Development and Validation of a Selection
Test for Teamwork Settings (Stevens & Campion, ‘99)
• Selection in Teams: An Exploration of the Teamwork Knowledge,
Skills, and Ability Test (McClough & Rogelberg, ‘03)
• Use of situational judgment tests to predict job performance: A
clarification of the literature. (McDaniel, et al. ‘01)
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