Choosing a Research Question
Specifying an Explanation
Hypotheses
The Research Process
 Define and Refine
Research Question
 Locate Research
 Collect Important
Information
 Write the Literature
Review
 Make Me Proud
Choosing a Research Question
 Concerned with the initial steps of an empirical
research project
 First step is to choose a research question
Choosing a Research Question
 Political scientists investigate diverse phenomena.
 Research question may focus on
 The political behavior of individuals, groups,
institutions, or political jurisdictions
 Descriptive, factual, or normative knowledge
 Two or more variables
Choosing a Research Question
 Research questions may originate from
 Personal observation or experience
 Writings of others
 Interest in some broader social theory
 Practical concerns like career objectives
Central Research Question
 Define Your Research Question
-What are you researching?
-What do you seek to accomplish?
 Refine Your Research Question
-Is your question too broad? Too vague?
-Is there an abundance of information?
-Too much information? Too Little?
Specifying an Explanation
 How are two or more variables related?
 A variable is a concept with variation.
 An independent variable is thought to influence, affect,
or cause variation in another variable.
 A dependent variable is thought to depend upon or be
caused by variation in an independent variable.
Specifying an Explanation
 Variables can have many different kinds of
relationships:
 Multiple independent variables usually needed
 Antecedent variables
 Intervening variables
 An arrow diagram can map the relationships
Quantitative Research
 Variables (Attributes)
 Independent Variable
 Dependent Variable
 Control Variable
 Hypotheses (not to be
proven!)
 Null Hypotheses
Specifying an Explanation
 Causal relationships are the most interesting.
 A causal relationhip has three components:
 X and Y covary.
 The change in X precedes the change in Y.
 Covariation between X and Y is not a coincidence or
spurious.
 We can state relationships in hypotheses.
Hypotheses
 Six characteristics of a good hypothesis:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Should be an empirical statement that formalizes
an educated guess about a phenomenon that
exists in the political world
Should explain general rather than particular
phenomena
Logical reason for thinking that the hypothesis
might be confirmed by the data
Should state the direction of the relationship
Terms describing concepts should be consistent
with the manner of testing
Data should be feasible to obtain and would
indicate if the hypothesis is defensible
The Hypothesis
 Makes a prediction
 Most research questions, however, formulate more
than one hypothesis.
 Attendance, along with solid study habits and ample
rest could also influence course grades.
 Yet, the focus is typically on the null hypothesis.
Null Hypothesis
 A hypothesis of no
relationship
 Prove or disprove the
null hypothesis to
show support or
opposition to your
actual hypothesis.
 Why?
Hypotheses
 Hypotheses must specify a unit of analysis:
 Individuals, groups, states, organizations, etc…
 Most research uses hypotheses with one unit of
analysis.
 Need to be able to identify these to be successful
Clarity In Research
 Be precise in determining unit(s) of analysis.
 How will you analyze? Why are you choosing to
analyze this way?
 Choose the proper level of analysis.
Ecological Fallacy
 A higher level of data
trying to explain a
lower level of behavior.
 Too much generalizing.
 Ex: Income level in a
community
Reductionism
 A smaller level of data
trying to explain a
higher level of
behavior.
 Ex: Steve Bartman
caused the Chicago
Cubs to miss the World
Series in 2003.
Spuriousness
 A false relationship; a
relationship that
appears but is not.
 Other factors often
enter
 Ex: Children who
listen to classical music
perform better in
school.
Hypotheses
 Definitions of concepts should be




Clear
Accurate
Precise
Informative
 Otherwise, reader will not understand concept
correctly.
 Many of the concepts used in political science are
fairly abstract—careful consideration is necessary.
What is a Variable?
 Simply, something that varies.
 Specifically, variables represent persons or objects that
can be manipulated, controlled, or merely measured
for the sake of research.
 Variation: How much a variable varies. Those with
little variation are called constants.
Examples of Variables
 In the recent GOP sweep of
 Voter Turnout
the House and Senate,
variables (or factors) that
may have played a part
would include:
 Party Message
 # of Open Seats
 Redistricting
 # of Incumbents
 Wellstone Funeral
Independent Variables
 These variables are ones that are more or less
controlled.
 Scientists manipulate these variables as they see fit.
 They still vary, but the variation is relatively known or
taken into account.
 Often there are many in a given study.
Dependent Variables
 Dependent variables are not controlled or
manipulated in any way, but instead are simply
measured or registered.
 These vary in relation to the independent variables,
and while results can be predicted, the data is always
measured.
 There can be any number of dependent variables, but
usually there is one to isolate reason for variation.
Independent V. Dependent
 Intentionally manipulated
 Intentionally left alone
 Controlled
 Measured
 Vary at known rate
 Vary at unknown rate
 Cause
 Effect
Example: What affects a
student’s arrival to class?
Variables:
 Type of School
 Liberals Arts v. University
 Type of Student
 Athlete? Gender? GPA?
 Time
 Bedtime, Waking, Arrival
 Mode of Transportation
Variables
 The Independent Variable (IV) causes (causal
relationship) the Dependent Variable (DV).
Example:
Students who attend class earn higher course grades.
IV: Class attendance
DV: Course grades
Example
An investigator had 60 subjects watch a videotaped reenactment of a bank robbery. Half of the subjects
were asked by a police investigator to recall the event,
while the remaining subjects were interviewed by a
police investigator while they were hypnotized.
Independent Variable:
Dependent Variable:
Example 2
To test a new voice feature in a cockpit design a flight simulator was
used. The simulator was programmed to give visual readings of flight
information, or to give visual and auditory (voice) readings of flight
information. All test pilots were put through a simulated emergency
landing procedure, but were randomly assigned to the visual, or visual
and auditory conditions. Flight experts rated each pilot’s performance
in the simulator on a scale of 1 (very poor) to 10 (excellent).
Independent Variable:
Dependent Variable: