Playing Keep-Away:
The State of Texas
and Tarrant County
Children & Our
Revenue Crisis
Frances Deviney, Ph.D.
Texas Kids Count Director
Center for Public Policy Priorities
June 1, 2011
Special Thanks
To Our Sponsors
M.R. and Evelyn Hudson
Foundation
&
The Annie E. Casey
Foundation
Special Thanks
To Our Co-host
United Way of
Tarrant County
www.stateoftexaschildren.org
www.tkcmobile.org
Let’s explore the Texas Century from
the perspective Texas’ children
Texas’ child population added nearly
ONE MILLION Kids
2010
6.9 M
2000
(5.9M)
Source: 2000 and 2010 Decennial Census data, U.S. Census Bureau
Although Texas’ child pop grew overall,
144 counties lost kids
Source: CPPP analysis of 2000 SF3 data and 2010 redistricting data from the U.S. Census Bureau
In 2000, Tarrant County’s White child population
was the clear majority
Source: Summary File 3, 2000 Decennial Census data, U.S. Census Bureau
By 2010, Tarrant Co grew to more than 507K kids, with
Hispanic kids accounting for most of the growth
Source: CPPP analysis of redistricting data, 2010 Decennial Census, U.S. Census Bureau
The vast majority of Tarrant Co. kids
are U.S. citizens
Source: Table B05003, 2007-2009 American Community Survey 3-year estimates, Census Bureau
Tarrant Co. child poverty increased
dramatically following the Recession
Recession began in
Sept 2008
Source: 2000 through 2009 Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau
Tarrant Co.’s Black & Hispanic children nearly 4x
more likely to live in poverty than White children
30%
29%
4x
4x
Black
Hispanic
19%
14%
8%
All children
White
Asian
Source: 2007-2009 American Community Survey, U.S. Census Bureau
Thrive
Grow
Births to Tarrant Co. teens declining
over time, but only for married teens
3.5%
Births to Married Teens
10.0%
9.8%
Births to Unmarried Teens
Source: Percentage of all live births, Vital Statistics, Texas Department of State Health Services
More babies born
too early . . .
Babies born before 37 weeks gestation
Texas
12.7%
13.2%
U.S.
11.6%
12.0%
11.5%
2000
Tarrant County
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Source: Vital Statistics, Texas Department of State Health Services
2007
2008
. . . and too small
Babies born weighing less than 5.5 lbs
Source: Vital Statistics, Texas Department of State Health Services
One of Every Four Texas Preschoolers Not Read
to Regularly
Source: 2007 National Survey of Children’s Health from Annie E. Casey Foundation, KIDS COUNT Data Center
Source: Texas Education Agency
11,917
192,594
Over half of Texas’ 4 year-olds attend
Public Pre-K
Nearly two-thirds of Tarrant County’s
students are economically disadvantaged
Source: Texas Education Agency Standard Student Reports
Since recession, nearly 34,000 more economically
disadvantaged students in Tarrant Co.
Source: Texas Education Agency Standard Student Reports
Fewer Economically Disadvantaged Kids in
Tarrant Co. Pass the TAKS Tests
Source: Percent Students Passing Across Grades Within Each Test, 2010 TAKS data, Texas Education Agency
How Many Economically
Disadvantaged Kids Not Passing in
Tarrant County?
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Reading = 37,000+
Math = 10,000+
Science = 10,800+
Social Studies = 1,900+
Writing = 2,900+
Source: Students Not Passing Across Grades Within Each Test, 2010 TAKS data, Texas Education Agency
Tarrant Co. Dropouts: Still Not Great,
But Improving
Tarrant Co.
Texas
Source: Attrition rate, Intercultural Development Research Association
Tarrant Co. Dropouts Nearly Twice as Likely to
Live in Poverty as Graduates
Source: Table C17003, Adults 25+ yrs, 2007-2009 American Community Survey, U.S. Census Bureau
More than
6,200 Tarrant
County kids
confirmed as
abused or
neglected in
2010
Source: Department of Family and
Protective Services
Tarrant county kids in Foster Care
increased by 50 percent
Source: Rate of kids in foster care per 1,000 Children Ages 0-17, Department of Family and Protective
Services
DFPS making more relative care
placements, fewer foster care placements
Foster Care
Source: Annual Data Books, Texas Department of Family and Protective Services
Relative
Percentage of kids in excellent/very good
health varies by . . .
Geography: TX = 78%, U.S. = 84%
Wealth
Health Coverage
93%
90%
85%
74%
59%
< Poverty 100-199% 200-399% 400% +
FPL
Source: 2007 National Survey of Children’s Health
69%
58%
Uninsured
Public Ins
Private Ins.
Texas Has Highest Rate of Uninsured Children in
the Nation Eleven Years Running
Source: Kids 0-18, KIDS COUNT State-Level Data Online, Annie E. Casey Foundation
Reduction in uninsured Texas kids
leaves middle class behind
23%
Source: CPPP analysis of 3-year average data, children ages 0-18, Current Population Survey, U.S. Census Bureau
Texas Century for children
We do big things
Sustained & balanced
investment
is the key to
healthy child development and
Texas’
future prosperity.
Only one dime of every federal dollar
is spent on kids
Source: Children’s Budget 2010, First Focus
Combined State & Federal Funds Spent on Children
in 2010-11 = $80.5 Billion
3%
1%
3%
4%
Source: Texas Children’s Budget for 2010-11, CPPP
Children’s
Spending
41%
Per Capita Spending by State
Children’s
Spending
41%
Children’s
Spending in
Other States
Why was there a $27 billion shortfall?
2012-13 Forecast
General Revenue
Fiscal 2011 Ending Deficit
$77 billion
- 4 billion
Set aside for Rainy Day Fund
TOTAL GR AVAILABLE
- 1 billion
$72 billion
Minimum needed for current
services, considering population
growth & health cost inflation
$99 billion
GAP
$27 billion
It’s not just the Recession!
2006 school tax cut created a structural deficit
2008-2009
Predicted Cost of Property Tax Reduction
Predicted Amount of New Revenue
Predicted Shortfall
$14.2 B
$ 8.3 B
$ 5.9 B
2012-13
Minimum Cost of Property Tax Reduction
Forecast of New Revenue
Likely Shortfall
$14.2 B
$ 4.5 B
$ 9.7 B
Source: University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll, 3-11
Children with special health care needs
Communities in
Schools program
Cuts to Kids
Family Planning
Services
Community Mental
Health services
Provider rate cuts
Middle school PE
in Medicaid and
grants
High School Completion
CHIP
and Success
Early Childhood Intervention
State and
Pre-K grants
community
Community-based obesity prevention
mental health
hospitals
Foundation School
Reading, Math, and
Teen Parenting/Life
Program
Science Initiatives
Skills
Newborn
Child abuse,
health
Financial support
Initiative
to
neglect, and
screenings
for Family Based
improve rural
delinquency
Services for abused
health care
prevention
kids
Source: University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll, 3-20-11
“$15 Billion Cut” really means
Firing teachers & increasing class sizes
Limiting access to health care
Putting children in harm’s way
We know we can
do big things.
It’s time to do the
right thing.
TEXAS KIDS COUNT
CPPP Resources
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Research: www.cppp.org
Online data: www.stateoftexaschildren.org
Mobile data: www.tkcmobile.org
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