WHS AP Psychology
Unit 6: Cognition
Essential Task 6-3: Identify decision making
techniques (compensatory models,
representativeness heuristics, and availability
heuristics) as well as factors that influence decision
making (overconfidence,
confirmation bias, belief bias, belief perseverance,
and hindsight bias)
Algorithms
Representativeness
Heuristic
Compensatory
Models
Heuristics
Decision
Making
Techniques
Problem
Solving
Techniques
Availability
Heuristic
Unit 6:
Cognition
Obstacles to
Problem Solving
Obstacles to
Decision Making
We are
here
Biological
Factors
Acquisition
and use of
Language
Information
Processing
Model
Memory
Encoding
Cognitive
Factors
Cultural
Factors
Storage
Retrieval
Essential
Task
6-3:
Outline
• Problems vs. Decisions
• Identify decision making techniques
– representativeness heuristics
– availability heuristics
– compensatory models
• Factors that influence decision making
• Overconfidence
• confirmation bias
• belief bias
• belief perseverance
• hindsight bias
Problems and Decisions
• Problem solving – the task is to come
up with new solutions
– Decision making – a type of problem
solving in which we already know the
possible options.
Heuristics in Decision Making
• Short-cuts learned from experience,
that people use to make decisions
typically when facing complex
problems or incomplete information
• Assumptions
• Two Types
– Availability heuristic
– Representativeness Heuristic.
Representativeness Heuristic
You make a decision based upon how
much something represents, or matches
up, with characteristics from your
schema, or the typical case.
Good
School
It matches my
‘party school’
schema so I decide
it is bad school.
Bad School
School
Representativeness Heuristic in
action.
Decide where they
are from.
Representativeness Heuristic in
action.
• Susan is very shy and withdrawn,
invariably helpful, but with little
interest in people, or in the world of
reality. A meek and tidy soul, she has a
need for order and structure, and a
passion for detail.
• Is Susan a Librarian, a Teacher, or a
Lawyer?
Representativeness Heuristic in
action.
• Linda is 31 years old, single, outspoken,
and very bright. She majored in
philosophy. As a student, she was
deeply concerned with issues of
discrimination and social justice, and
also participated in anti-nuclear
demonstrations.
• Is Linda a Bank Teller? Or Is Linda a
feminist Bank Teller?
Truth or Lie
1.
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
Something that happened to me during grade school.
I got into a fight in the bathroom and my first grade
teacher didn’t break it up.
My favorite meal – Sushi at the California Grill
My earliest memory – 4th birthday party
My favorite vacation trip - Disney
A high point of my high school days – Band
The most influential person in my life - Dad
My favorite teacher – Mr. Day my ELA
The part of the country in which I’d most like to live –
Pacific Northwest
A surprising talent that I have - Cook
Something interesting about a member of my family –
My sister is a concert Pianist.
Availability Heuristic
Operates when we make decisions on
how available information is. The faster
people can remember an instance of some
event the more they expect it to occur.
Availability Heuristic in Action
• Which household chores do you do more
frequently than your partner? (e.g. washing
dishes, taking out the trash, etc.)
• - wives report 16/20 chores
• - husbands report 16/20 chores
Ross and Sicoly (1979)
• Why? Availability!
• - I remember lots of instances of taking out the
trash, washing dishes, but I do not remember lots
of instance of my wife doing it
Availability Heuristic
Why does our availability heuristic lead
us astray? Whatever increases the ease of
retrieving information increases its
perceived availability.
How is retrieval
facilitated?
1. How recently we have heard about the
event.
2. How distinct it is.
Which causes more deaths per
100,000?
1.
2.
3.
4.
All accidents or strokes
Blood poisoning or suicide
Homicide or diabetes
Motor vehicle accidents or colorectal
cancer
5. leukemia or Drowning
Exaggerated Fear
The opposite of having
overconfidence is
having an exaggerated
fear about what may
happen. Such fears may
be unfounded.
The 9/11 attacks led to a 20%
decline in air travel due to
fear. 800 more people would
die if they drove just half
those miles
Which causes more deaths per
100,000?
1. All accidents (35.7) vs. strokes (57.4)
2. Suicide (10.4) vs. blood poisoning
(11.3)
3. Homicide (7.1) vs. diabetes (25.1)
4. Motor vehicle accidents (15.7) vs.
colorectal cancer (18.9)
5. Drowning (1.1) vs. leukemia (7.8)
Which city has the higher crime
index?
•
•
•
•
•
•
Detroit or Myrtle Beach
Chicago or Baltimore
Manhattan or Gary, India
Boston or Flint
Montreal or Hot Springs
San Francisco or Durham
Answers
•
•
•
•
•
•
Detroit (crime index = 531) vs. Myrtle Beach (597)
Chicago (335) vs. Baltimore (479)
Manhattan (152) vs. Gary (544)
Boston (223) vs. Flint (329)
Montreal (181) vs. Hot Springs (201)
San Francisco (176) vs. Durham (216)
Overconfidence
Overconfidence is a tendency to
overestimate the accuracy of our
beliefs and judgments.
At a stock market, both
the seller and the buyer
may be confident about
their decisions on a
stock.
Confirmation Bias
• While we make a decision, we actively
look for information that confirms our
ideas
Belief Bias
The tendency of one’s preexisting beliefs
to distort logical reasoning by making
invalid conclusions.
Democrats support free speech
Dictators are not democrats
Dictators do not support free speech.
We more easily see the
illogic of conclusions that
run counter to our beliefs
than those that agree
with our beliefs.
God is love.
Love is blind
Ray Charles is blind.
Ray Charles is God.
Anonymous graffiti
Belief Perseverance
Belief perseverance is the tendency to
cling to our beliefs in the face of
contrary evidence.
Bias after the process
Hindsight Bias
• a tendency to think that one would
have known actual events were
coming before they happened, had
one been present then or had reason
to pay attention.
• a.k.a Monday morning quarterback.
• ‘I-knew-it-all-along’ effect, reflecting a
common response to surprise.
Decision Making and Judgements
• Decision making/judgments are special
cases of problem solving in which
possible solutions or choices are
already known
• Logical decision making
– Compensatory model
• Rational decision-making model in which choices are
systematically evaluated on various criteria
• Example: buying a car
– Good when issues are well-defined