Hindsight Bias
The hindsight bias is the tendency that people overestimate
what they would have known or would have predicted after an
outcome is known. This is also called the “I-knew-it-all-along”
effect.
For example, when people know the outcome of a historical
battle, they tend to believe that they would have predicted
exactly that outcome, although the probability of this prediction
is much smaller if the outcome is not known (see Fischhoff,
1975).
Harley et al. (2004) found a visual hindsight bias.
Contributor
© POSbase 2005