Surge and Decline
The Election of 2010
Clearly Stated Learning Objectives
• Understand the decision making process for
why people vote as they do and how this
changes over time.
• Evaluate and interpret the importance of
partisanship in shaping political opinion and
vote choice
• Analyze the theories of why people vote and
apply them to the 2010 Election.
A Historical
Perspective
The Presidential Surge
• The President pulls candidates along with him
– 1980, 2008, 1964
• In a worst-case, he breaks even
– 1984, 1996, 2004
The Midterm Decline
• The President’s Party Loses Seats
• They Take a bigger hit in the 6th Year
• 1934, 1998, and 2002
The Role of Midterm elections
• A referendum on the president
• A referendum on the economy
WHO VOTES IN THE MIDTERM
A Different Electorate
A Different Electorate
• More Partisans
• Less people there to
support the president
• Less salient election
Congressional vote for candidate of winning presidential party
Withdrawn Coattails
50%
Coattail effect
Non-coattail
effect
Presidential Election
Non-coattail
effect
Midterm Election
Core vs. Peripheral Voters
THE OLD THEORY OF SURGE AND
DECLINE
Types of Voters
• Core Voters
• Peripheral voters
It is all about Peripheral Voters
• A Surge of Independent
Voters
• Excited by the salience
of the election
A Surge of Information
• Peripheral voters go to
the polls
• The information surge
favors the winning
candidate
In the Midterm
• The peripherals stay at home resulting in
lower turnout
• The Core voters turn out
Problems with the original theory
• The Midterm and presidential electorates are
similar demographically
• The partisan differences aren’t that much
different
• Peripherals are not running the show!
THE REVISED THEORY
The Disadvantaged Partisan
• More Likely to abstain
than defect
• Cross Pressured
Winners and Losers
• In the General election
– Surge among the advantaged party
– Decline among the losing party
• A One Sided Surge
In the Midterm
• Partisans Stay at Home
• So do Peripherals
In the Midyear
• The president’s party stays at home
• The Out- party comes out to vote against you.
• No Cross-pressures
The Big Differences in the Theory
• Advantaged Partisans Turn out Heavy
• Disadvantaged Partisans stay at Home
• Independents turn out like usual, but swing to
the wining party.
LEADING FACTORS OF A MIDTERM
LOSS
How You Know it is going to bad
• Exposure and Coattails
• Presidential Approval
• Economic Growth
The Elections of 2010
The Obama Dichotomy
• President Obama had a
record of achievement
not seen since LBJ.
• Each of these
achievements produced
positive and negative
political consequences.
Health Care Reform
• Policy Success
– The largest
accomplishment of
the administration
• Policy Problems
– Spent Political Capital
– Delayed
Implementation
Opinion Remained Divided
The Stimulus Package
• Success
– Potentially Staved off a
second depression
• Problems
– High Price Tag
– Did not meet
expectations
Voters were Split on its Effectiveness
War on Terror
Successes in Iraq
Problems in Afghanistan
– More U.S. deaths in two
years of Obama
Administration than in 8
years of Bush
Administration
• Support Remains Divided
Financial Reform Bill
Success
– The most sweeping bank
reform since the Great
Depression
Problems
– Critics on the Left say it
didn’t Go Far Enough
– Economy has not
rebounded
Obama Shares the Blame
President Obama’s Policy Disconnect
• Major Policies did not
directly affect ordinary
voters in a meaningful way
• Many Voters viewed these
major policies as halfempty, not half-full