Anthony Downs Ch. 8
The Statics and Dynamics of Party
Ideology
Learning Objectives
• Evaluate how people develop political
opinions and how this impacts their political
behavior.
• Understand the decision making process for
why people vote as they do and how this
changes over time.
Party Movement
• When do parties change ideologies
• When do the diverge?
• When do they resemble each other
Where To Build a Bar in Central Texas?
Here… in Bastrop
Or Here?
6th Street
Why Do you See These two across
the Street From Each Other?
Why Does This, Appear next to
This?
Why Do We Have?
THESE STRATEGIES APPLY TO
POLITICS
Lets Apply this to Ideology
• Here is a distribution with 0 representing policy
liberalism, and 100 representing policy
conservativism
• A and B represent political parties
Where Parties Should Go in A Normal
Distribution
They Move To the Center
Why go to the Center
• You Cant leapfrog the other party
• More voters
• At what point do you stop moving to the
Center?
When do you stop?
The Problem of Being Too
Moderate
• A Third Party could grab your flank
• Too many of your people stay home
STAYING PUT
What About A Bimodal Distribution?
Party Polarization
The Tea Party
One Hump is often Bigger 2010
In 2008 it was the other way
MULTI PARTY SYSTEMS
Polygamy
A polymodal System
A Polymodal System
• In PR systems, 1 party for Each hump
• How might this differ in a Single Member
District System?
In Germany
Party Movement in Multiparty Systems
• Stay Put!
• Distinguish yourself from your enemies
How our Parties Deal with the
Humps
• Social and Economic Conservatives (within the
GOP)
• The Many Humps within the Democratic Party
New and Old
HOW MANY PARTIES
How Many Parties in Majority
Elections
• Duverger’s Law
– Mechanical Effect
– Psychological Effect
How Many in a Two Round System
• If No candidate gets 50%+1, we have a runoff
• This system encourages multiple
candidates/parties as well as coalitions
What about in Texas?
The Kinds of Candidates
• Those who are there to win
– Perry
– KBH
• Those that are there to influence
– Medina
– The rest
• This system encourages populist and extremist candidates
Voting in the First Round
• Try to get your preferred candidate into
second place or Get them 50%
• Do not worry about switching candidates
The Second Round
• Round 1 winners must compromise to get the
supporters of the losing candidates in round
two
• This favors candidates who are situated at the
political middle
• This hurts intransigent candidates
Rational Voting in this system
• Round 1 with your heart
• Round 2 with your head
How many parties in a PR system
• As many parties as humps exist
• Depends on the threshold
NEW PARTIES
Getting New Parties
• Existing parties cant jump over each other
• New Parties come from
– Between the gap
– On the fringe
What New parties Want to Do
Win elections
Threaten Existing Parties
How can Third Parties Win?
A Shift In Franchise…. The electorate changes!
Splitting the Vote
Ambiguity
• You can try to accomplish everything
• It increases your appeal
• It makes it harder for the voter to be rational!
Why?