Statutory Assessment and the
New National Curriculum
Stephen Anwyll
Ofqual
AAIA Annual Conference
Bournemouth
2nd October 2014
Who’s who in National
Assessment
Department for Education determines EYFS
Framework and National Curriculum, defines
expected standards and publishes outcomes
Standards and Testing Agency (STA) part of
DfE responsible for development and delivery of
National Assessment arrangements
Requirements on Local Authorities and
schools (headteachers)
Ofqual ‘keeps under independent review’, fair
for learners? standards maintained?
What’s changing?
2015
EY
2-3 Progress Check
Age 5 / Rec
EYFS Profile
2016
2-3 Progress Check
[EYFS Profile]
New early baseline
Phonics Screening
Check (Y1/2)
Phonics Screening
Check (Y1/2)
TA in Rdg / Wtg / Ma
TA in Rdg / Wtg / Ma
(informed by test/task and
externally moderated)
(informed by tests and
externally moderated)
S&L and Sc
S&L and Sc
Test (R/GP&S/Ma)
Test (R/GP&S/Ma)
KS2
Levels 3-5 & 6 (Sc sample)
(Sc sample)
Age 11 / Y6
& TA (inc statutory wtg TA
& TA (inc statutory wtg TA
moderation)
KS1
Age 7 / Y2
moderation)
DfE proposals 2016
(pub. March 2014)
Accountability
Attainment: From 2016, KS2 floor standard
measure to be raised to 85% of pupils achieving
new, higher expectation in reading & mathematics
tests and writing TA
Progress: measure from 2016 based on
percentage of pupils making ‘sufficient progress’
in all of rdg and wrtg and ma, not separately
‘Sufficient progress’ to be defined in 2016 after
new KS2 tests have been taken for the first time
Transitional arrangements from 2016 to 2023
Measuring progress 2014 to 2023
Years
Basis of measuring progress in primary schools
2014
‘levels of progress from KS1 to KS2 rdg and
ma test outcomes and wrtg TA (as now)
2015
2016
2017
2018
KS1 ‘old’ TA levels to overall KS2 ‘new’ test
and TA outcomes
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
KS1 ‘new’ TA outcomes to overall KS2 ‘new’
test and TA outcomes
New baseline to overall KS2 ‘new’ test and TA
outcomes OR KS1 ‘new’ TA outcomes to KS2
‘new’ test and TA outcomes (whichever better)
Early baseline to overall KS2 test and TA
outcomes
Key issues in present system
Pupil Assessment v School Accountability
Purpose is accurate assessment of the individual
pupil
One use of the outcomes is to hold schools to
account
Both legitimate but tensions inevitable which can
affect behaviours and lead to distortions
Some evidence of these behaviours in all forms of
current statutory national assessment
End of Key Stage 1 2014
Phonics Screening Check 2014:
Attainment and accountability
2016 floor standard: higher attainment expectation
and more pupils to attain it (85%) so fewer schools
likely to
– In 2013, % of schools where 60% of
pupils attained Level 4+ in all of Rdg and
Ma tests and Wrtg TA
90%
– In 2013, % of schools where 85% of
pupils attained ‘4b’ in Rdg and Ma tests
and L4 in Wrtg TA
10%
Progress and accountability
2016 floor standard: percentage of pupils making
‘sufficient progress’ in all of rdg and wrtg and ma,
i.e. not separately
– In 2013, % of schools where pupil
progress from KS1 was below median
in each of the three subjects (Rdg,
Wrtg and Ma)
24%
DfE consultation document (July 2013) suggested
that ‘sufficient progress’ will be defined so a similar
number of schools fall below the floor as at present
Impact of new accountability
measures
2013
2016?
Questions
How can ‘perverse incentives’ be avoided with
the Reception Baseline in a context of high
stakes school accountability?
How will progress be calculated up to 2023 with
the move to scaled scores in KS2 tests?
If progress measure covers whole of primary
phase, what are the implications for schools with:
– High mobility?
– High percentage of EAL pupils? FSM pupils?
How will Ofsted deal with changes to available
assessment data?
Key implications
pupil progress in reading, writing and mathematics,
rather than attainment, the focus for most schools
pupil progress tracking will need to take account of
new, national ‘performance descriptors’
progress ‘data’ derived from statutory assessment
will go through changing forms until 2023
‘sufficient progress’ will not be defined in advance
so schools need to be able to justify how they have
used assessment to improve learning
KS1 teacher assessment will carry very high stakes
(at least until 2019)
Main challenges to the system
time needed to establish new standards
high stakes school accountability on pupil progress
tests promote a misleading impression of accuracy
lack of coherence between school-level
approaches to classroom assessment, monitoring
progress and national benchmarks
Ofsted: competing demands on assessment data
(e.g. Rec. Baseline at pupil level) and inconsistency
of approach during period of change
teacher performance management
Links
 Final proposals for assessment and accountability:
• https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/new-nationalcurriculum-primary-assessment-and-accountability
 Draft KS1 and KS2 Test Frameworks for 2016:
• https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/nationalcurriculum-assessments-test-frameworks
 Reception Baseline criteria
• https://www.gov.uk/reception-baseline-approval-process-forassessments
Ofqual contact:
• National.Assessment@ofqual.gov.uk