School Subject Estimates

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Using FFT Live
Primary Schools
Mike Treadaway
Director of Research
Fischer Family Trust
Contents
Data Landscape
• Change and Continuity?
FFT Live
• Self-Evaluation
• Estimates - Particularly KS1
• Data Literacy – Applying Key Principles
Other Reports
• Student Explorer
• Exports
Data Landscape
FFT
DfE
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Value-Added
Contextual
Value-Added
3 Year
Summaries
Estimates
Also:
• Floor Standards
• Expected Progress
Whether or not to Contextualise?
Type of Analysis
Advantages
Disadvantages
Raw Outcomes e.g. %L4+
Provides a view as to whether
pupils are attaining the
knowledge and skills needed
for their next stage of
education?
When used to compare
schools, depends strongly
upon attainment of the
school’s intake.
Value-Added
Enables a focus upon progress
irrespective of context e.g.
How well are our FSM pupils
doing compared to our nonFSM pupils?
Comparing value-added
outcomes for schools with
different contexts and makeup of intakes can be
misleading.
Contextual Value-Added
Aims to take account of
factors which are outside the
school’s control and which,
from analysing national data,
can be shown to influence
progress.
If used to look ahead
(estimates) then danger of
‘self-fulfilling prophecy’ for
pupils in groups who currently
under-perform nationally.
Differences – VA and CVA
• Compare PA (Value-added) and SX (Contextual Value-Added)
outcomes for KS2->4 in 2009/10.
– Use KS2 Average Points Score as outcome measure.
– Look at how many change significant state.
– Analyses by grouping schools in different socio-economic contexts.
School
VA compared to CVA
School
Change in VA Score
Context
Better
Worse
Context
Avg
Min
Max
Q1
14%
4%
Q1
+0.30
-1.6
+1.6
Q2
9%
8%
Q2
+0.01
-1.6
+3.0
Q3
7%
11%
Q3
-0.08
-1.6
+1.9
Q4
11%
9%
Q4
+0.05
-1.8
+2.2
To get some idea of the likely change for your
school, compare PA and SX value-added outcomes
on FFT Live or in FFT Self-Evaluation reports.
In Lambeth, most schools have VA
better than CVA – this is mainly
related to the progress of ethnic
minority pupils.
Recommendations
For Self-Evaluation:
• VA (FFT PA model) and CVA (FFT SX model) are both important
• Contextual Value-Added is probably still the best starting point
• For schools with high % of ethnic minority pupils (other than Black Caribbean) CVA is
likely to be LOWER than VA
• If CVA is good, particularly in a school serving a socio-economically disadvantaged area,
VA provide a view as to whether pupils are making good progress irrespective of context
For Estimates:
• Thinking about range is probably the most important principle
• PA model probably the best starting point, but need to take account of:
• What the school has achieved in previous years
• Impact of pupil characteristics and school context
• Other factors, including parental support, school interventions .....
And, in the end, what matters most to each pupil is the knowledge and
skills they take with them to the next stage of their education!
Expected Progress
• DfE Approach
– Whole Levels, Subject Specific Input
– So, for example, 84% L2 in Mathematics at KS1 attained L4+ at KS2 in
2011
• FFT Approach
– Differentiate within levels where possible (2ABC)
– Take into account prior attainment in English and Mathematics
KS1 English
L4+ KS2 Maths
KS1 Maths
KS2 L4+ Maths
1
80%
2C
58%
2C
82%
2B
86%
2B
86%
2A
97%
2A
89%
3
92%
FFT Live
Includes:
• Latest
updates
• Future
releases
• Help Files
SETS
• Key Changes for 2011
– Default changed to PA (Prior Attainment)
– SX (Contextual VA) continues to be available
– Option to SORT available on Pupil Estimates report
Self-Evaluation
Significant Areas Grid
• Range of pupil groups and indicators
• KS1 Contextual and KS1->2 VA / CVA
• 3 Year summary, Overall + Trends
Significant Areas Detail
• Shows actual attainment and VA/CVA scores for
each year
• Can be accessed by clicking on Significant Areas grid
Pupil Value-Added
• KS1->KS2, VA or CVA
• Highlights where progress is mode than half a
NC level above or below national average
Estimates
School Summary Estimates
• Range of Indicators and Pupil Groups
• A – PA 50th Percentile; B – SE 50th Percentile,
• D – SE 25th Percentile; S – School Previous
Pupil Summary Estimates
• Types A, B, D
• Range of indicators (overall level, L4+, L5+)
• Reading and Writing not included
School Subject Estimates
• Core Subjects including Reading and Writing and Expected
Progress for English and Mathematics
• Outcomes for all levels (not just L4+ and L5+)
• Some pupil groupings available
Pupil Subject Estimates
• Can be accessed directly or from School Subject Estimates
• Show likelihood of attaining all levels (L2 to L5)
• Also provides option to show ‘most likely level’
Using Estimates
Two basic approaches
• Start with pupil data
• Take into account other
factors
• Add up and compare with
overall estimates
• Revise as necessary to
arrive at overall targets
• Use overall estimates and
evaluation of past performance
to draft overall targets
• Use ‘RANK’ option in FFT School
Subject Estimates to set overall
figure at your overall targets
• Click on link to pupil estimates
• Estimate -> Prediction -> Target
• Consider option of range - realistic and ambitious
• Don’t add up ‘estimated levels’
Adding up estimated levels – why not?
• Consider a group of 20 ‘identical’ pupils
• They all have the same estimates:
L2
L3
L4
L5+
GM
HGM
GA
5%
20%
50%
25%
4
25%
5
If we add up the ‘GM’ grades
If we average the ‘chances’ for
each level and multiply by
number of pupils
L2
L3
L4
L5
0
0
20
0
L2
L3
L4
L5
5%
20%
50%
25%
1
4
10
5
Note : Adding up predicted or target grades is fine –
assuming that they are not simply just using
unmoderated estimates!
KS1 Estimates
• In development section
• Introduced in summer 2011 following a year of trialling and
feedback – which was very positive!
• Examples of relationship between FSP and KS1 attainment
Remember that these are
averages!
CLL -> Reading
Chart below shows KS1 Maths
Levels for FSP MAT scores
between 18 and 22
EYFSP MAT score between 18 and 22
MAT -> Maths
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
1
2C
2B
KS1 Mathematics Level
2A
3
FSP to KS1 - Factors
Factor
Overall EYFSP Score
CLL Score
MAT Score
PSE Score
Gender
Age
Socio-Economic Context
Approximate
Weightings
CLL
MAT
PSE
Gender
Age
PA Model

SE Model












KS1 Reading
58%
26%
8%
5%
2%
KS1 Writing
58%
24%
5%
11%
1%
KS1 Mathematics
44%
43%
3%
9%
1%
Other Reports
• Export Section
• Provides additional data (e.g. UPN,
FFT_ID) which is not available on
SETS reports
• Removes formatting and colours, so
easier to import into other systems
•
•
•
•
Student Explorer
Select students by range of characteristics
Look at individual pupil history
Developments:
• FSM as pre-set group (can currently
select using drop-down menus)
• Pilot estimate report which takes into
account factors such as EAL and when
arrived in UK
Questions
We have introduced KS1 estimates
• Should we also include KS1 Value-Added reports
• School-Level?
• Pupil-Level?
Student Explorer
• Ability to select by FSM (current or ever) will soon be included
• Are there any other important pupil characteristics which
would be useful to have easily available on the main menu?
Any other suggestions for development?
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