Oulu University
GETA seminar 19.-21.01.2011
Ou
Oulu
Some ideas about analyzing research topics
Heli Jantunen
Microelectronics and Materials Physics Laboratories
Department of Electrical and Information Engineering
Faculty of Technology
University of Oulu
Finland
Oulu University
GETA seminar 19.-21.01.2011
Ou
Oulu
• Is it already well-researched?
• Who is interested about results?
?
• What kind of new applications would be interesting?
ANY TOOLS TO EVALUATE THE RESEARCH AREA?
• Are new innovations needed?
• When it is a correct time to patent?
• Where to find financing?
• Who are the key players?
• Where to publish?
Oulu University
S-CURVES AS A TOOL TO ANALYSE MARKET SITUATION
OF A PRODUCT
• NORMALLY DIVIDED IN FIVE PERIODS
SALES OR PROFIT (AU)
Oulu
GETA seminar 19.-21.01.2011
Ou
Sales
Profit
TIME
S. Majaro: International Marketing; A Strategic Approach to World Markets
Oulu University
BASIC RESEARCH - PRODUCT
SALES OR PROFIT (AU)
Oulu
GETA seminar 19.-21.01.2011
Ou
Sales
Profit
BASIC RESEARCH
COOPERATION RESEARCH
DEVELOPMENT
TIME
S. Majaro: International Marketing; A Strategic Approach to World Markets
M. S. Slocum: Using S-Curves and Trends of Evolution in R&D Strategy Planning
Oulu University
PERFORMANCE
S-CURVES AS A TOOL TO ANALYSE
SITUATION OF A SPECIFIC RESEARCH AREA?
• HOW THESE CORRELATE WITH
SOME ELECTRONICS MATERIALS?
• TREND OF PUBLICATIONS?
TIME
INVENTIONS
Oulu
GETA seminar 19.-21.01.2011
Ou
• CORRELATION WITH AVAILABLE
MARKET FORECASTS?
• USABILITY WITH COMMON ”HUNTING”
METHODS?
Number
• HOW IT WORKS IN PRACTICE?
Level
TIME
M. S. Slocum: Using S-Curves and Trends of Evolution in R&D Strategy Planning
Oulu University
Oulu
GETA seminar 19.-21.01.2011
Ou
BRIEF TESTING OF S-CURVES ON SOME
ELECTRONICS MATERIALS
• SELECTED MAIN TOPICS
• LTCC (LOW TEMPERATURE COFIRED CERAMIC)
• METHODS
• www.uspto.gov WITH SELECTED YEARS (free access)
• http://scholar.google.fi/ WITH SELECTED YEAR (free access)
• ISI Web of Science (through your library; scientific jounral publications)
• Scopus (through your library; also conference proceedings)
• Science Direct
• Market perdictions
• etc.
Oulu University
GETA seminar 19.-21.01.2011
Ou
Oulu
LOW TEMPERATURE COFIRED CERAMIC
KNOWN BEFOREHAND
• VERY ACTIVE AREA ALREADY SEVERAL YEARS
• APPLICATION AREAS IN AUTOMOTIVE, TELECOMMUNICATION
AND SENSOR TECHNOLOGIES
Space application
Module (VCO) IMST
LTCC module,
VTT
LTCC waveguide,
Oulu University
Oulu University
Oulu
GETA seminar 19.-21.01.2011
Ou
Oulu University
GETA seminar 19.-21.01.2011
Ou
Oulu
LOW TEMPERATURE COFIRED CERAMIC
PATENTS / YEAR
200
GROWING?
• S 878
kpl (1990-2006)
180STILL
• GROWTH ~ 2003
160
140NEW INNOVATIONS OR APPLICATION AREAS NEEDED?
120
100
DEEPER ”HUNTING” NEEDED!
80
60
40
20
0
2005
2000
1995
1990
Oulu University
Oulu
GETA seminar 19.-21.01.2011
Ou
DEEPER “HUNTING” (LTCC, material, publications)
450
Piezoelectric
Ferroelectric
Magnetic
Dielectric
400
350
AMOUNT
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1998
1999
Piezoelectric
Ferrelectric
Magentic
Dielectric
2000
~ 450
~ 330
> 1100
> 2800
2001
2002
2003
YEAR
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Oulu University
GETA seminar 19.-21.01.2011
Ou
Oulu
POLYMER PRINTABLE ELECTRONICS
KNOWN BEFOREHAND
• LOT OF ACTIVITIES ONGOING
• WIDE APPLICATION AREAS LIKE OLEDS, DISPLAYS, PACKAGES,…
Printed OLED demonstrator,
VTT
R2R printed circuits,
VTT
Inkjet printed CNT ink,
Oulu University
Oulu University
GETA seminar 19.-21.01.2011
Ou
Oulu
POLYMER PRINTABLE ELECTRONICS
FORECAST FOR ORGANIC AND INORGANIC PRINTABLE
PATENTS
/ YEAR
ELECTRONICS
300 BILLION $ GLOBALLY IN 2025
60
50
• S 418 kpl (1990-2006)
• GROWTHInorganic
TO BE COME
(should be updated)
(50 B$)
40
Other organics (40 B$)
30
Logic, memory (120 B$)
20
Lighting, displays, packaging,
Signage, poster, billboard (90 B$)
10
0
http://www.idtechex.com/products/en/articles/00000261.asp
1990
1995
2000
2005
Oulu University
GETA seminar 19.-21.01.2011
Ou
Oulu
• FAST METHOD
• AVAILABLE TO ALL RESEARCHERS
• GIVES INDICATIONS
• overall view
• novelty of research area
• competitive position
• background work needed
• new innovations needed
• financing type
AMOUNT OF
PUBLICATIONS
CONCLUSIONS AND NOTES
• FURTHER LIMITATION WHEN “HUNTING”
• find new applications
• combinations possibilities
S-CURVES MIGHT BE ONE TOOL TO ANALYSE RESEACH AREA
TIME
Oulu University
Oulu
GETA seminar 19.-21.01.2011
Ou
HOWEVER.................
METHOD CAN EFFECT A LOT!
IT IS VERY SENSIVE AND IF NOT DONE CORRECTLY
- RESULTS are MISLEADING!
ADDITIONALLY YOU CAN FIND
• Who is Who – in this research topic
• Most cited publications
• Main journals – impact factor or the best audience
• How your supervisor is doing !!!!
Oulu University
GETA seminar 19.-21.01.2011
Ou
Oulu
Thank you for your attention!