Jonathan Malloy
Carleton University
“I will have to
have a new
slogan: ‘Bland
works.’”
Bill Davis, 1980
“The polls
tell me I’m
not the
most
popular
guy. I
accept
that.”
Dalton
McGuinty,
2011
 How
has Ontario politics changed in the
last 30 years?
• Rotation of governing parties
• Economic change
• Shifts in Canadian federalism
• Increasing population diversity
 Examined
through prism of political
culture/political values
 Sets the stage for examination of 2011
election
 Wilson
(1980): The “Red Tory” province
• Ascriptive, elitist, hierarchical, stable, cautious and
restrained
 Noel
(1997)
• the imperative pursuit of economic success
• assumption of pre-eminence in the Canadian
federation
• requirement of managerial efficiency in government
• expectation of reciprocity in political relationships
• the balancing of interests
 Loyalty
 Pragmatism
(“managing prosperity”)
 Identification
with Canada
 Wilson
(1997) “It
does appear to be
the same old
Ontario.”
1985



Poor leadership transition
(rural, older image)
PC division over separate
school funding
1990



Voter alienation and discontent
(Meech, economy)
Unpopularity of federal PCs
General pragmatic
streak in Peterson
majority and Rae govts

Changes can be
explained by timing
and windows of
opportunity, rather
than underlying value
shifts
Loyalty and
pragmatism remain;
identication with
Canada?
 1995
PC victory
unexpected
 Tone
of radical policy
change
 Polarization
of
Ontario politics;
building on Rae years
 Harris: Idealogue
or
opportunist?
 Erratic
Ernie Eves
 Political
change and
polarization
 Economic
restructuring
 Federal-provincial
disputes
 Growing
racial and
cultural diversity
 Loyalty?
 Pragmatism?
 Identification
Canada?
with
 Image
of bland
sincerity
 Platform of stability
 Pragmatic leadership
and policies
• pursuit of economic success
• assumption of Canadian pre-
eminence
• managerial efficiency
• reciprocity in political
relationships
• balancing of interests
 Reinforced
in 2007
election
• PC platform offered
limited contrast
• School funding: retro
issue with new twist
• John Tory: similar
personal image to
McGuinty
 Ontario
politics again about “managing
prosperity” and balancing interests
 But
increasing assertiveness within
Canada
• “Interest in things Ontarian” (Wiseman 2007)
• Mowat Centre
• Fiscal imbalance issues
• Popular, or just policy?
 Minority
bargaining
 Drummond
 Cuts
Report
and polarization
 Loyalty?
 Pragmatism?
 Identification
Canada?
 Continuing
management
problems (Ornge)
with

Economic downturn
• Decline of
manufacturing

Management problems
• E-health
• Ecotax
• Energy mega-projects

PC lead in polls

But…
 PC
disconnect
between “tax man”
attacks and promises
of continued/
increased spending
 NDP
Horwarth
platform with
pseudo-populist
approach
 Liberals
relied on
their stable policy
approach


“The polls tell me I’m not the
most popular guy. I accept
that.”

All parties lacked
serious plans for new
economic and fiscal
challenges
Campaign and election
results suggest
pragmatic leadership
remains key
Bland worked (mostly)
 Minority
bargaining
 Drummond
 Cuts
Report
and polarization
 Loyalty?
 Pragmatism?
 Identification
Canada?
 Continuing
management
problems (Ornge)
with