Impact of Renewable generation

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Impact of Renewable generation
Workshop Greenpeace - Terna "Power30"
ROME, October15th 2014
IMPACT OF RENEWABLE GENERATION
ROME, October 15th 2014
Index
- Innovative Solutions Implemented
- Main changes in the last years
• From liberalization to nowadays
• Investments in generation
• Demand and Renewable trends
• Curtailments of wind and solar plants
- Grid development in South Italy
- New challenges
2
ROME, October 15th 2014
IMPACT OF RENEWABLE GENERATION
Main changes in the last years
From liberalization to nowadays
2000-2014
to 2000
• Centralized planning of the system
• Liberalization of generation
• Generation and Grid
• Development and Operation
• Lack of generation in respect of Demand
• Investments in generation
• Big import from abroad
• National generation mainly from Thermal
power plants, powered oil
• New Thermo power plants (most in CCGT
technology): +22.000 MW
• Renewable: wind and solar power plants
+26.000 MW
• Stable growth of the Demand
• Demand crisis
• After the 2008 financial crisis
Transmission Grid became the key factor
for new generation utilization
3
ROME, October 15th 2014
IMPACT OF RENEWABLE GENERATION
Main changes in the last years
Investments in generation
Electricity Market boosts investments in generation
• Growth of conventional generation from 2002:
• +22.000 MW most in Combined Cycle Gas Turbine
• Renewable big growth from 2005
• Wind +7.000 MW
• Solar (Photovoltaic) +18.500 MW
• Investment mainly in the South, far from big consumers
Overcoming from initial generation
undercapacity to satisfy the Demand to present
overcapacity
• In 2013 the peak demand has been satisfied
with a reserve margin up to 46%
from Under to Over capacity
2005
2013
10%
85
Installata
46%
60 5
55
Disponibile
Peak Demand
Thermo from 2002
GW
Reserve
Reserve Margin
Renewable big growth from 2005 to 1Q 2014
4,520
760
2.940
2.460
+ 21.760 MW
(circa 38% al Nord)
(circa 43% al Sud )
Energy flows mainly from the South
150
Energy flows from liberalization to nowadays
540
190
800
750
2.700
750
1.300
3.200
700
4
ROME, October 15th 2014
IMPACT OF RENEWABLE GENERATION
Main changes in the last years
Demand and Renewable trends
Demand crisis
• In 2013: back to 10yrs ago
340
339
337
335
330
330
328
325
-3.05%
321
320
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Renewable big growth
• In 2013: Demand significantly satisfied by
Renewable: 12,1% from Wind and Photovoltaic
% Demand
Photovoltaic
Demand not satisfied by Renewable
(1)
318
317
Back to 2003 level
Wind
Demand crisis and Renewable growth make system operation
more complex
• More flexible dispatching resources are needed
• Less regulation resources are available
12,1
MWh
30000
20000
HIGH RAMP
10000
OFF-PEAK
10,0
3,3
2,2
6,1
7,0
5,6
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
h
3,2
0,2
2,0
0,6
2,7
2,9
2009
2010
2011
0
4,4
2012
5,1
2013
Evening issue: peak
Demand and reduction
of PV generation
Source: Terna. data on operation of the Italian power system
5
ROME, October 15th 2014
IMPACT OF RENEWABLE GENERATION
Main Changes in the last years
Curtailments and demand satisfied by RES (wind and solar)
GWh
RES Curtailment
RES energy and curtailment 2009 - 2013
9.7%
4.8%
1.3%
0.5%
0.4%
Peak values of Demand satisfied by RES production
hourly and daily in South Italy and Sicilia
Max giorno
Max ora
138%
126%
88%
56%
44%
89%
81%
2012
2013
59%
37%
26%
2009
2010
2011
6
IMPACT OF RENEWABLE GENERATION
ROME, October 15th 2014
Innovative Solutions Implemented
Management
of energy flow
Active power: Phase shifter
transformer (PST)
Reactive power: Reactors/Capacitors,
synchronous compensators
Storage devices
New Lines
Transfer Capacity
Optimization of existing
overhead lines
Dynamic Rating
Smart Grid
Solutions
Prediction of RES generation
Wide Area Monitoring Systems (WAMS)
Automatic tripping devices and realtime configuration changes
7
ROME, October 15th 2014
IMPACT OF RENEWABLE GENERATION
Innovative Solutions Implemented
PST
CAPACITOR
REACTOR
SYNC.COMPENSATOR
STUDY FOR NEW PST
ON CROSS BORDER
SECTION
STORAGE SYSTEMS
STUDY FOR NEW
PST ON CROSS
BORDER SECTION
8
IMPACT OF RENEWABLE GENERATION
ROME, October 15th 2014
Grid development in South Italy
New lines and
RES connections
2.000 km of new lines
70 new substations
~ 5 Mld€ investments
Upgrade existing
overhead lines
Dynamic Thermal
Rating
1.500 km of lines on 150 kV grid
~ 1 Mld€ investments
First application on 100 km of 150 kV lines in South
Italy with an increase of transmission capacity of about
250 MW
Applications on EHV voltage level grid in progress
9
ROME, October 15th 2014
IMPACT OF RENEWABLE GENERATION
New Challenges
• Coordination TSO-DSOs
In order to have as much information as possible concerning MV and LV generation and to improve
systems coordination
• Advanced Dispatching of RES
Estimation/forecast at short time of the renewable generation and assessment in real time of RES by
Advance Dispatching in order to guarantee the security
EU Market – Integration in Real Time
European market integration (both Energy and Dispatching Markets), in order to:
cope opportunities in exchange of efficient energy between Markets
share dispatching resources, with improvement of security and efficiency
Opportunities for producers to sell resources also abroad
Dispatching and Energy Operation
10
IMPACT OF RENEWABLE GENERATION
ROME, October 15th 2014
Back-Up
11
ROME, October 15th 2014
IMPACT OF RENEWABLE GENERATION
Demand supplied by RES
Peak of renewable production (Wind and Photovoltaic)
Considering data up to 2014, June 30th
22116
4275
MW
5713
1577
Tuesday
14/05/2013 h12
Wednesday
14/05/2014 h 12
Nord
CNord
1071 1288
5126
4701
(*)
(*)
Monday
28/04/2014 h12
3462
2524
Monday
24/06/2013 h13
CSud
Sunday
07/04/2013 h13
2739
Sud
Sardegna
2009
Demand
Thursday
14/03/2013 h10
Sicilia
Renewable prod
(*) considering the Wind reduction applied in real time
12
ROME, October 15th 2014
IMPACT OF RENEWABLE GENERATION
Future challenges
Terna’s experience in Storage
Total Capacity: 75MW
2 different Project Lines serving different scope
Energy Intensive Line
Power Intensive Line
Scope: Solve Grid congestion / bottlenecks
Total Capacity: 35MW
Technology: NaS Sodium Sulfur
Number of Projects: 3
Localization: Southern Italy
Scope: Safe management of the grid
Total Capacity: 40MW1
Technology: Lithium, Zebra, Others
Number of Projects: 2
Localization: Main Islands
Phase1: “Storage Lab”
Project Evolution
Central: Done
Building Permit: Done
Authorization
Central: Done
Building Permit: In Progress
Modules: Completed
System: Under way
Procurement
Modules: Completed
System: Completed
Site Preparation:
on going
Construction
Site Preparation:
on going (2 Projects)
1. Of which 16MW in Phase 1, so called “Storage Lab”
13
ROME, October 15th 2014
IMPACT OF RENEWABLE GENERATION
Impact of RES generation on the Energy Market
Total Benefits 2007-2013 in the day ahead energy market
Investments have been gradually increased from 616 M€ to 1.212 M€
2007
2011
Minimum
Price (68)
50
62
71
73
75
80
80
Pool Price
72€/MWh
Price Zone > Pool Price
Price Zone < Pool Price
47
61
71
73
71€/MWh
2014*
70
73
Pool Price
2013
46
59
Minimum
Price (69)
93
Minimum
Price (57)
61
Minimum
Price (44)
Pool Price
Pool Price
63€/MWh
47
92
50€/MWh
72
(*) period: January-May
Congestions have been gradually reduced, whilst price differential among zones has
been significantly reduced
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ROME, October 15th 2014
IMPACT OF RENEWABLE GENERATION
Impact of RES generation on the Energy Market
Hours reduction of CCGT* power plants in operation
• Equivalent hours of Natural Gas Power Plants in operation (hh)
5.100
-60%
5.000
4.500
3.800
3.500
3.200
2.700
2.100
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
* The power plants considered are CCGT and Dual fuel qualified and not to Ancillary Service Market
15
IMPACT OF RENEWABLE GENERATION
ROME, October 15th 2014
Impact of RES generation on the Ancillary Services Market
16
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