“Going, going … gone? Analyzing
glacier change”
Detailed instructions for completing
the laboratory
Organization of this Lab
• Activity 1: Analyze media stories on the effect of
global warming on glacial retreat in terms of
glacial processes
• Activity 2: Develop your hypothesis
• Activity 3: Test your hypothesis by gathering
data on the Nisqually Glacier
• Activity 4: Compare Nisqually behavior with
other glaciers
• Activity 5: Predict future change to glaciers
Activity 1: Analyze media stories on the effect of
global warming on glacial retreat in terms of
glacial processes
• Many videos you can watch on YouTube:
http://youtube.com/watch?v=UGclsV3JuAQ
http://youtube.com/watch?v=Pem4fpMwkSQ
http://youtube.com/watch?v=7MXazI568Bs
Just search “glacier retreat”
• Media loves the visuals of glacial retreat…
Activity 1: Analyze media stories on the effect of
climate change on glacial retreat in terms of
glacial processes
• You will read media
stories
Activity 2: Develop your hypothesis
SODA
Entire Book, The Scientific Nature of
Geomorphology ed. by Rhoads & Thorn
Activity 2: Develop your hypothesis
• Read Hecht & Pelto; what are their hypotheses?
Activity 2: Develop your hypothesis
Activity 2: Develop your hypothesis
Activity 3: Test your hypothesis by
gathering data on the Nisqually Glacier
• Background information on the study area
• Methods used to study glacier change…
• Task 1. You measure how the length of the Nisqually
Glacier changes over time
• Task 2. Analyzing uncertainty
• Task 3. Plot your data
• Task 4. Comparison with atmospheric temperature
• Task 5. Comparison with other glacier length records
Activity 3: Background on study area
Activity 3: Background on study area
Fly around and two QTVRs
Activity 3: Background on study area
Glacier in various
positions “above”
bridge
Bridge marking
previous glacier
advance
Activity 3: Background on study area
Mt. Rainer through time
(courtesy of NPS)
Activity 3: Methods
Lots of techniques…
field methods
mapping terminus
historical photos
ground photos
maps
From a Master’s thesis…
Activity 3: Task 1. Measure length of
Nisqually Glacier & how changes
1971
Activity 3: Task 1. Measure length of
Nisqually Glacier & how changes
Take a string (or ruler). Measure
Activity
3: from
Task the
1. Measure
length of
length
top of Rainier.
Nisqually
Glacierwith
& how
changes
Then, compare
scale.
Then
convert km to miles.
Ground Photos
require that you look
for features on the
topographic map
that can help you
identify location of
terminus
Working with ground photos can be
difficult and can have low confidence
From Mt. Rainer website
(photoshopped)
Ground photo 1912
Trees…
Cliff
Activity 3: Task 2. Analyze Uncertainty
Activity 3: Task 3. Plot your data
Already given in
data table
Need to be
graphed
Only connect lines between 4 (high) and
3 (medium confidence) – and leave 2 & 1
unconnected
Example from Glacier X at Mount Rainier
Example from Glacier X at Mount Rainier
High confidence ~0.1
km (100 m) range
Med. confidence
~0.2-0.3 km (200300 m) range
Low/VL confidence ~0.5-1 km range
(guess)
Inform reader: where we’re sure of the data and why…here’s our estimate…we need more research…
Activity 3: Task 4. Compare with
temperature records
Example from Glacier X at Mount Rainier
Activity 3: Task 4. Example
Glacier length increasing…
Global temp record shows temp
increasing too…
Why? Does this make sense?
Low confidence for 3
years of data…
Note in writing
Activity 3: Task 4. Compare with
temperature records—lots of noise & lots
of uncertainty
Blue dots = avg. annual temp
Trend line
Example from Glacier X at Mount Rainier
What do the two
graphs tell us?
Write-up, noting
speculative-ness and
low/very low confidence
levels, but possibilty…
Activity 3: Task 5.
Compare with
other glacier
length records
from Oerlemans
Example from
Glacier X at
Mount Rainier
Different is OK…Glaciers
have personalities…may
not do what “everyone”
else does
Use fieldwork & maps &
other datasets to help us
interpret glacier’s
personality
Activity 4: Comparing Nisqually to other
Glaciers
• After scientists conduct research at their
study site, most compare results with other
locations to discover if their site is an
anomaly or reflects a broader trend
• Sometimes, scientists do this themselves
and make a career studying glaciers
• Sometimes, compare with other published
studies
Activity 4: Comparing Nisqually to other glaciers
Activity 4: Comparing Nisqually to other
glaciers
Activity 4: Comparing Nisqually to
other Glaciers
Activity 5: Predict the future
(~1850)
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
Activity 5: Predict the future
WITHOUT anthropogenic influence…
Activity 5: Predict the future
Die-out completely,
like Kilimanjaro?
Advance in another little
ice age?
Activity 5: Predict the future