Nick Vink
Institute for Futures Research
Department of Agricultural Economics
University of Stellenbosch nv@sun.ac.za

1. Foresight Project Report
2. BFAP Outlook
3. Supply considerations
4. Demand considerations
5. Africa

1. The Foresight Project
Foresight. The Future of Food and Farming (2011). Final Project Report. The
Government Office for Science, London

A. Balancing future demand and supply sustainably – to ensure that food supplies are affordable.
B. Ensuring that there is adequate stability in food supplies – and protecting the most vulnerable from the volatility that does occur.
C. Achieving global access to food and ending hunger.
Producing enough food is not the same thing as
ensuring food security for all.
D. Managing the contribution of the food system to the mitigation of climate change.
E. Maintaining biodiversity and ecosystem services while feeding the world.

Six drivers of change: Population increase
• To 8bn by 2030 and >9bn by 2050
• Most in poorer countries: Africa’s population will double to two billion by 2050
• Factors affecting population size include
 GDP growth
 Educational attainment
 Access to contraception
 Gender equality
 The extent of female education
 Urbanisation

Six drivers of change: per capita demand for food
• Some food items (such as grain-fed meat) require more resources to produce than others
• Meat: increases in per capita consumption from 32 kg today to 52 kg by the middle of the century: implications for land, water and other inputs
• Fish: demand is expected to increase substantially, and mostly met by aquaculture: consequences for the management of aquatic habitats and the supply of feed

Six drivers of change: governance of the food system
• The globalisation of markets
• The emergence and continued growth of new food superpowers: Brazil, China and
India
• The trend for consolidation in transnational companies in agribusiness, and food retail

Six drivers of change: governance of the food system
• Production subsidies, trade restrictions and other market interventions of the rich countries
• The extent to which governments act collectively to face challenges in shared resources, trade and volatility in agricultural markets.
• The control of increasing areas of land for food production such as in Africa

Six drivers of change: climate change
• The backdrop is rising temperatures and changing patterns of precipitation
• These will affect crop growth and livestock performance and the functioning of ecosystem services
• Extreme weather events will increase price volatility
• Policies for climate change mitigation will also impact on the food system

Six drivers of change: competition for key resources
• Land for food production: Additional land is available for food production, but in practice land will come under pressure for other uses
• Land will be lost to erosion, urbanisation, recreation, desertification, salination and sea level rise
• Global energy demand: Double to 2050, and the food system is vulnerable to higher energy costs
• Global water demand: Agriculture currently consumes 70% of ‘blue water’ withdrawals, and demand could double by 2050.

• A major influence on politicians and policy makers and on patterns of consumption
• Examples include
 The acceptability of modern technology (GM)
 Production methods such as organic and related management systems
 The value placed on animal welfare
 The relative importance of environmental sustainability and biodiversity protection
 Issues of equity and fair trade

12

• World market: OECD-FAO Aglink Cosimo model and the FAPRI US and World
Agricultural Outlook
• Macroeconomic assumptions
• South African supply and demand
• Cooperation with industries
• Farm level analyses
• Building scenarios around the assumptions
13

Tariffs
Population
(million)
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Remain as in 2011
50.8
51.1
51.3
51.5
51.7
51.9
52.1
52.3
52.5
52.7
SA cents/$ 708 733 757 781 807 831 854 878 903 929
SA cents/Euro 1046 1065 1100 1139 1180 1220 1259 1299 1341 1385
Economic growth (%) 3.7
4.2
4.6
3.9
3.4
2.9
2.6
2.3
2.1
2.1
Interest rate
(%) 9.00
10.00
10.07
10.13
10.20 10.27 10.33 10.40 10.47 10.53

180
150
120
90
60
30
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
15

Recovery, then flattening out
150
120
90
60
210
180
30
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
16

Gross value of animal production
Poultry, dairy
240
210
180
150
120
90
60
30
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
17

180
200
Gross value of table grapes, apples and pears
Export markets
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
18

200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
19

500
400
300
200
100
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
20

45000
40000
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000 4
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Debt (Left Axis) Debt as % of Total Asset Value (Right Axis)
0
20
16
12
8
36
32
28
24
21

• Historically high levels of yields for maize (>4.5 t/ha) and wheat
• Shift out of (white) maize and towards soybeans and sunflower
• Area planted to oilseeds will reach 1.2m ha in 2020, compared to 2.2m ha for maize
• Rise and rise in consumption of poultry meat: 2.2m ton/year in 2020, compared to beef (<1m ton)
• SA remains a net importer of all meat
• Growth in dairy to 2.6m ton in 2020: cheese fastest growing
22

14
12
10
8
2
0
6
4
20
18
16
-69%
-49%
-45%
-5%
+28%
+38%
+60%
+68%
+52%
+12%
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3 LSM 4 LSM 5 LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8 LSM 9 LSM 10
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
23

250,0
200,0
150,0
100,0
50,0
0,0
ANNUAL REAL FOOD PRICE INDICES
(2002-2004=100)
Source: FAO, 2011
Food Price Index Meat Price Index Cereals Price Index Oils Price Index

Potential arable land and arable land in use in developing countries, 1997/1999 and 2030
Region Total land suitable
(million ha)
Arable land in use (million ha)
Land in use as
% of potential
Balance
(million ha)
1997/99 2030 1997/99 2030 1997/99 2030
Developing countries 2 782 956 1 076 34 39 1 826 1 706
Sub-Saharan Africa
Near East/North
Africa
1 031 228 288 22 28 803 743
99 86 93 87 94 13 6
East Asia
South Asia
Latin America
366
220
232
207
237
216
63
94
65
98
134
13
129
4
1 066 203 244 19 23 863 822

Growth in land under irrigation,
1961-2007
Irrigated land
Oceania
South America
Asia
Central America
World
South Africa
Africa
North America
Europe
Av annual growth (%)
2.40
1.80
1.78
1.70
1.59
1.37
1.34
1.16
0.98

Potential irrigated land and irrigated land in use in developing countries, 1997/1999 and 2030
Region Total land suitable for irrigation
(million ha)
Developing countries 403
Sub-Saharan Africa
Near East/North Africa
37
44
East Asia
South Asia
Latin America
112
142
68
Irrigated land in use (million ha)
Irrigated land in use as % of potential
Balance
1)
(million ha)
1997/99 2030 1997/99 2030 1997/99 2030
202 242 50 60 201 161
5 7 14 19 32 30
26 33 62 75 18 11
71 85 64 76 41 27
81 95 57 67 61 47
18 22 27 32 50 46

500
400
300
700
600
200
100
0
Total and per capita agricultural production in Africa, 1964-2006
Total Per capita (kg)
750
700
650
600
550
500

40
20
0
100
80
60
120
Land use in Africa: field crops
Cereals,Total +
Oilcrops Primary +
Coarse Grain, Total +
Roots and Tubers,Total +

20
15
10
5
0
Land use in Africa: horticulture, pulses
Fruit excl Melons,Total +
Treenuts,Total +
Pulses,Total +
Vegetables&Melons, Total +
25

1,5
1,4
1,3
1,2
1,1
1
0,9
0,8
0,7
0,6
Cereals,Total + Coarse Grain, Total + Roots and Tubers,Total +
7
6
10
9
8
3
2
5
4
1
0

10
0
-10
-20
30
20
40
Net agricultural exports from
Africa, 1961-2007
Imports ($000) Exports ($000) Net exports ($000)

South Africa: exports to world and Africa for
2008 and 2009
Description
Total
($m) agriculture
Corn (Maize) ($m)
Cane Sugar ($m)
Food preps, other
($m)
Fruit Juice ($m)
Waters ($m)
Sunflower Oil ($m)
Apples, Pears ($m)
Cereal Meal etc
($m)
Wine ($m)
Exports to the world
2008 2009
Growth from
1997 (%)
5,517
510
218
5,603
445
387
6.6
4.9
3.8
Exports to
Africa
2008 2009
Growth from
1997
(%)
% to Africa
200
8
2009
1,721
1,86
6
445 419
133 171
8.3
11.0
7.0
31
87
61
33
94
44
83
170
65
91
367
52
754
89
170
70
60
365
52
727
13.2
7.7
8.0
9.8
6.8
10.2
12.0
73
52
56
24
59
51
54
79
66
62
60
56
51
49
12.9
12.4
7.1
9.8
10.3
10.2
9.2
87
31
86
27
16
98
7
88
39
88
99
15
99
7

South African agricultural exports to
Africa
1997
World
AFRICA
Zimbabwe
Kenya
Mozambique
Angola
Zambia
DRC
Mauritius
Nigeria
Tanzania
Malawi
2,536
686
58
128
124
91
42
39
46
4
18
32
2007 2008
4,233
890
60
44
197
131
58
30
53
41
27
23
$m
5,517
1,721
421
123
262
179
223
41
54
50
41
34
54
49
42
41
5,603
1,866
420
333
252
173
135
61
2009 growth African total
7.9
5.9
5.4
9.8
3.7
% pa
6.61
%
8.3
2009 cumulative
16.5
22.5
22.5
17.8
13.5
9.3
7.2
3.3
40.3
53.8
63.1
70.3
73.6
1.4
20.3
7.2
2.0
2.9
2.6
2.3
2.2
76.5
79.1
81.3
83.5

South African imports from Africa
Description
Total
Tobacco
Cotton raw
Tea
Cocoa paste
Oilcake
Oilseeds
Molasses
Bran
Coffee
Leguminous vegetables
2008
259.0
50.3
50.9
23.9
14.8
17.5
5.5
3.8
11.2
5.2
5.9
2009
255.5
48.2
45.9
35.1
16.5
16.3
9.7
8.2
6.2
6.0
4.3
Growth (% pa)
2.2
2.1
-2.9
6.7
10.7
6.0
4.9
27.8
9.0
4.5
10.2
Africa share of total imports (%)
2008
5.5
48.3
100.0
83.1
78.9
69.4
56.6
34.9
96.8
6.6
8.9
2009
6.0
25.0
99.9
85.6
88.8
50.8
72.1
74.8
90.0
11.9
6.5

South Africa’s agricultural imports from
Africa, 2008 & 2009
RSA imports from the world
($m)
1997 2008 2009
1,894.2
4,735.
3
4,275.
7
RSA imports from Africa ($m) 195.8
259.0
255.5
Growth
(% pa)
6.8
2.2
% from Africa
Zimbabwe ($m)
Malawi ($m)
Zambia ($m)
Mozambique ($m)
Ivory Coast ($m)
Uganda ($m)
Tanzania ($m)
Kenya ($m)
Ethiopia ($m)
10.3
8.9
0.2
2.1
7.0
0.3
5.5
86.4
77.8
80.2
28.9
43.5
41.7
19.6
26.6
29.4
26.4
21.6
20.0
16.2
17.6
11.4
15.2
7.1
4.7
6.0
14.6
13.7
6.5
4.4
Share of Africa total
-1.1
34.8
15.5
-0.6
21.5
%
-0.6
31.4
3.1
3.4
7.4
16.3
11.5
8.4
6.9
5.7
5.3
2.6
1.7
Cumulativ e
31.4
47.7
59.2
67.7
74.5
80.2
85.6
88.1
91.8

• Total wine exports have declined the past 3 years
• Packaged exports declined most
• SA is therefore exporting more bulk wine
(little value added)
• BUT the market for packaged wine in Africa is growing fast
39

UK
Sweden
Netherlands
Nigeria
Kenya
China
All Asia
All Africa
Rank Exports
(litre)
Year to
July 2010
(m litre)
1 85.2
2 32.9
3
10
20.2
2.8
12
11
2.7
2.0
8.4
12.1
Exports
(litre)
Year to
July 2011
(m litre)
45.2
28.6
18.5
3.4
2.9
3.0
8.4
13.4
Increase
(decrease)
(%)
(47)
(13)
(9)
20
20
51
0
11
40