Skills and Labour for the
Canterbury Rebuild and Recovery
A Presentation to the Built
Environment Skills Strategy (BESS)
Setting the Scene
• More than 10,000 earthquakes have occurred
since the first 7.1 magnitude earthquake struck
Christchurch on 4 September 2010
• 22 February 2011 earthquake resulted in 185
fatalities and caused widespread damage
• Recovering from a natural disaster on this scale in
New Zealand is uncharted territory for individuals,
communities, businesses, councils and
government
• Successful recovery requires leadership and
partnership between central government, local
government, Te Rununga o Ngai Tahu, NGO’s,
communities and business
4.35 am 4 Sept 2010
26 Dec 2010
12.51 pm 22 Feb 2011
2.20 pm 13 June 2011
Consequences of the Earthquake
• More than 70% of CBD buildings severely damaged
• 124 kms of water mains and 300km of sewer pipes
damaged
• 500,000 tonnes of liquefaction silt removed
• 600 kms of roads seriously damaged
• 50,000 road surface defects
• 55% of secondary students sharing with other schools
• 13 out of 36 hotels operating
• $25b - $30b estimated cost
• 185 lives tragically lost
• 459,000 EQC claims (104,000 closed; 355,000 open)
Progress So Far
• 1,500 workers fixing roads and the
•
•
•
•
•
•
three waters
100% of the city has normal
reticulated water access
100% of the city has normal kerbside
waste services
100% of the city has access to
functioning sewerage, chemical toilet
or portaloo
92% of parks open
11km of large diameter pressure
mains replaced
$3.33b paid and 23% EQC claims
closed
• 600 11kV power cable faults - now
repaired
• 600+ people in the CBD red
zone every day
• 1,320 buildings demolished, out of
1,609
• 180,000 homes in green zone
• 7,779 residential red zone properties
• 6,491 red zone owners have
purchase offers
• 5,834 homeowners have signed S&P
Agreements
• 37 zoning decisions remaining
Understanding the Need
• A futures model has been developed that considers
the work generated by the rebuild and also the ongoing activity of the regional economy
• It is important to remember……
The model shows the consequences of
a defined scenario – it DOES NOT
predict the future!
Model History
• Originally developed to understand the
implications of workforce growth / decline as
a result of economic changes.
• Adapted following the September 2010
earthquake to understand the implications of
the earthquake on the local labour market.
• Now informing our understanding of the
dynamics of the rebuild and when labour may
constrain the pace of rebuild.
Developing the Intelligence
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•
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Insurers
Project Management Offices
Construction Sector
Government
Developers
Community
Central City Blueprint
Scale of Demand
• The total cost of the rebuild, based on current
estimates is around $30bn
• Approximately this equates to
– Residential – 40%
– Infrastructure – 10%
– Government – 10%
– Capital Assets – 10%
– Commercial – 30%
Operating in a dynamic environment
with little certainty
• There is still a large degree of uncertainty in the
marketplace
– When will the rebuild really get underway?
– How big will it get?
– Will insurance continue to cause delays?
– Can we really find all the workers we need?
• The outputs of the model are de risked by applying a
range of scenarios that give the most likely
consequence of future demand.
Business As Usual
• The earthquakes have had an effect on the
normal activity in the region.
• Normally the workforce undertakes this BAU
activity
However
• Things have changed
• Normal activity is not what it was prior to the
earthquakes
• There is lots of new activity as a direct or indirect
effect of the earthquake
Consensus Scenario
% of BAU
60%
Timeframe
-
Residential Repairs
0%
-
Commercial
Infrastructure
30%
20%
-
Residential New
Build
BAU with Reduction
Infrastructure
Residential New Builds
Residential Repair
Commercial Public
Commercial Private
2020 Q4
2020 Q3
2020 Q2
2020 Q1
2019 Q4
2019 Q3
2019 Q2
2019 Q1
2018 Q4
2018 Q3
2018 Q2
2018 Q1
2017 Q4
2017 Q3
2017 Q2
2017 Q1
2016 Q4
2016 Q3
2016 Q2
2016 Q1
2015 Q4
2015 Q3
2015 Q2
2015 Q1
2014 Q4
2014 Q3
2014 Q2
2014 Q1
2013 Q4
2013 Q3
2013 Q2
2013 Q1
2012 Q4
2012 Q3
2012 Q2
2012 Q1
2011 Q4
2011 Q3
2011 Q2
2011 Q1
2010 Q4
2010 Q3
2010 Q2
Construction Labour Requirements for
Rebuild Activity
35,000
30,000
25,000
BAU Construction Activity
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
Delayed Rebuild Scenario
% of BAU
60
Timeframe
+ 2 years
Residential Repairs
0
+ 2 years
Commercial
Infrastructure
30
20
+ 2 years
+ 2 years
Residential New
Build
BAU with Reduction
Infrastructure
Residential New Builds
Residential Repair
Commercial Public
Commercial Private
2020 Q3
2020 Q2
2020 Q1
2019 Q4
2019 Q3
2019 Q2
2019 Q1
2018 Q4
2018 Q3
2018 Q2
2018 Q1
2017 Q4
2017 Q3
2017 Q2
2017 Q1
2016 Q4
2016 Q3
2016 Q2
2016 Q1
2015 Q4
2015 Q3
2015 Q2
2015 Q1
2014 Q4
2014 Q3
2014 Q2
2014 Q1
2013 Q4
2013 Q3
2013 Q2
2013 Q1
2012 Q4
2012 Q3
2012 Q2
2012 Q1
2011 Q4
2011 Q3
2011 Q2
2011 Q1
2010 Q4
2010 Q3
2010 Q2
35,000
Construction Labour Requirements for
Rebuild Activity
30,000
25,000
BAU Construction Activity
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
Labour Supply
Proportion of demand met by relocating
2% scenario 5% scenario 7% scenario 10% scenario
19%
35%
44%
55%
Proportion of demand met by relocating
2%
scenario
5%
scenario
7%
scenario
10%
scenario
Carpenters and Joiners
5%
12%
16%
23%
Painting Trades Workers
7%
17%
24%
34%
Concreters
3%
6%
9%
13%
100%
100%
100%
100%
Plasterers
5%
14%
19%
27%
Bricklayers and Stonemasons
6%
14%
20%
28%
Wall and Floor Tilers
6%
14%
20%
29%
Building and Plumbing Labourers
25%
62%
86%
100%
Plumbers
13%
34%
47%
67%
100%
100%
100%
100%
Electricians
18%
44%
62%
89%
Roof Tilers
9%
23%
33%
47%
Occupation
Other Miscellaneous Labourers
Truck Drivers
Unconstrained Workforce
Accommodation Constrained Workforce
2020 Q4
2020 Q3
2020 Q2
2020 Q1
2019 Q4
2019 Q3
2019 Q2
2019 Q1
2018 Q4
2018 Q3
2018 Q2
2018 Q1
2017 Q4
2017 Q3
2017 Q2
2017 Q1
2016 Q4
2016 Q3
2016 Q2
2016 Q1
2015 Q4
2015 Q3
2015 Q2
2015 Q1
2014 Q4
2014 Q3
2014 Q2
2014 Q1
2013 Q4
2013 Q3
2013 Q2
2013 Q1
2012 Q4
2012 Q3
2012 Q2
2012 Q1
2011 Q4
2011 Q3
2011 Q2
2011 Q1
2010 Q4
2010 Q3
2010 Q2
Additional Workforce for Rebuild - Unconstrained and
Constrained by Accommodation Availability
(6,000 annual)
20,000
18,000
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
Unconstrained Workforce
Accommodation Constrained Workforce
2020 Q4
2020 Q3
2020 Q2
2020 Q1
2019 Q4
2019 Q3
2019 Q2
2019 Q1
2018 Q4
2018 Q3
2018 Q2
2018 Q1
2017 Q4
2017 Q3
2017 Q2
2017 Q1
2016 Q4
2016 Q3
2016 Q2
2016 Q1
2015 Q4
2015 Q3
2015 Q2
2015 Q1
2014 Q4
2014 Q3
2014 Q2
2014 Q1
2013 Q4
2013 Q3
2013 Q2
2013 Q1
2012 Q4
2012 Q3
2012 Q2
2012 Q1
2011 Q4
2011 Q3
2011 Q2
2011 Q1
2010 Q4
2010 Q3
2010 Q2
Additional Workforce for Rebuild - Unconstrained and
Constrained by Accommodation Availability
(4,000 annual)
20,000
18,000
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
Unconstrained Workforce
Accommodation Constrained Workforce
2020 Q4
2020 Q3
2020 Q2
2020 Q1
2019 Q4
2019 Q3
2019 Q2
2019 Q1
2018 Q4
2018 Q3
2018 Q2
2018 Q1
2017 Q4
2017 Q3
2017 Q2
2017 Q1
2016 Q4
2016 Q3
2016 Q2
2016 Q1
2015 Q4
2015 Q3
2015 Q2
2015 Q1
2014 Q4
2014 Q3
2014 Q2
2014 Q1
2013 Q4
2013 Q3
2013 Q2
2013 Q1
2012 Q4
2012 Q3
2012 Q2
2012 Q1
2011 Q4
2011 Q3
2011 Q2
2011 Q1
2010 Q4
2010 Q3
2010 Q2
Additional Workforce for Rebuild - Unconstrained and
Constrained by Accommodation Availability
(3,000 annual)
20,000
18,000
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
Labour Market Recovery
Programme
• A joined up approach between government, iwi,
business and the community to overcoming
systems issues in the Greater Christchurch labour
market.
• A plan that puts the aspirations of business at the
core of what we are trying to achieve.
• A once in a lifetime chance to do something a
little different – to apply acceleration to usual
market forces.
Why Do We Need One?
• Labour market fragmentation
• Government agencies were previously uncoordinated
– At a local level provision is heading in multiple directions
– No one was looking at the big picture
• Some macro conditions are not helpful
– Population loss
– Wage inflation
– Marginalisation of disadvantaged groups
• Some sectors will not respond effectively to market
needs
What Will Be Achieved As A Result Of
The Programme?
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A consolidated and coordinated plan
A vision that provides direction
Leadership
Clear integration between business need and
central government policy
• Efficiency gains in funding interventions
• Appropriateness of response
The Strategic Response
Priorities:
– Attracting and retaining skilled and talented
people in Greater Christchurch
– Developing skills and capabilities
– Engaging disadvantaged and unconnected groups
into work
– Enabling better linkages between schools, tertiary
providers and businesses
– Assisting businesses to achieve improved skills
utilisation and labour productivity gains
Priority Sectors
– Agribusiness
– Knowledge Intensive Manufacturing
– ICT
– Professional Services
– Health
– Construction
Construction Sector Workforce Plan
• Flows out of the Recovery Strategy and the
Labour Market Recovery Programme
• Industry-led, and about what industry can do
• Sector leaders group met twice to discuss
issues and options (MBIE as scribe)
The Burning Issues
• Considerable uncertainty about when the
rebuild will accelerate
• A lack of collaboration and coordination
resulting in inefficiencies, which raise costs
and compound uncertainties
Key Themes
1.
2.
3.
4.
Clarifying the scale of the additional labour demand
Principles of Cooperation
Better Information
Establish a Good employer Scheme with a Training
Commitment
5. Skill shortages
6. Social issues
7. Health and Safety
8. Accommodation
9. Quality of workforce
10. The Licensed building practitioner scheme
How Can You Engage With the Plan?
• Very keen to hear ideas of industry led
initiatives that will make a difference
• Plan will be posted on the Canterbury
Employment and Skills Board website at the
end of next week – www.cesb.org.nz
• Feedback directed to Nick Montague at the
Ministry of Business Innovation and
Employment – by 1st February 2013
The Canterbury Skills and Employment
Hub
• An employer-friendly and efficient service to:
• give New Zealander the first option for jobs in the
rebuild
• check the local labour market on behalf of
employers
• fast-track visa applications where no New
Zealander can be found
• Free online job matching tool for employers and job
seekers.
• Skills Brokers engage directly with employers about
their needs
Skills Hub
Website
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The website is clear,
straightforward and easy to
use.
There is lots of useful
information for employers
and prospective workers
The site will be regularly
updated with the latest
labour market information
that businesses and people
can use to make informed
choices
Contacting the Hub
• Hub now open for business
• A number of ways to contact the Hub:
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0800 Canhub
Email: Canty_skillshub@msd.govt.nz
www.opportunitycanterbury.org.nz
Visit by a Skills Broker
• To be evaluated for applicability to rest of New
Zealand
Sourcing Labour – An Immigration
Response to the Canterbury Rebuild
Approvals In Principle
• Used where:
– you have not yet located a candidate, and/or
– you have more than one position vacant
• Employer applies for ‘approval in principle’ to
recruit workers from offshore.
• When approved, employer has confidence that
can bring in the people needed for the job.
• Immigration NZ are now referring interested
employers to the Canterbury Skills and
Employment Hub to check if there are any
suitable New Zealanders available.
The Canterbury Skills Shortage List
(CSSL)
• Revised early November 2012, live on Show Day
• Thirteen occupations added:
Solid
Plasterer
Painting Trades
Worker
Wall and Floor
Tiler
Fibrous Plasterer
Brick Layer
Carpenter
Roof Tiler
Joiner
Glazier
Floor finishes
Stonemason
Drain layer
Carpenter and
joiner
• Note that these are skilled jobs at ANZSCO 3, with
qualifications and/or experience
Offshore Marketing and Recruitment
• Immigration NZ can provide you with support
offshore
• The London-based marketing team is responsible
for putting skilled UK/Irish/Dutch migrants in
touch with NZ employers and recruiters. We do
this in three ways:
1.
2.
3.
Attending events in UK and Europe
Supporting NZ employers and their recruitment agents when they
are in the UK
Providing a web-based forum for NZ employers to meet skilled UK
migrants.
• The London branch can be contacted by e-mail
at: ian.riddle@dol.govt.nz