(Dreaming about) The Future of Travel
Bob Kabli
VP E-Commerce & Mobile
Emirates Airline
9th October 2014
Agenda
Introduction
Future Trends: Global
Emirates & the aviation industry
Future Trends: Travel
Summary
Section 1:
Introduction
Times are changing, we all need to adapt!
But are we thinking far enough ahead?
About me
• Born and raised in London
• An airline family….
• Joined BA in 1998
• Joined Emirates to set up Strategic Pricing in 2003
• Moved to E-Commerce role in 2011
• 11 years in sunny Dubai
• 3 small children, hectic but fun
• Football career over, golf career about to start
Section 2:
Future Trends - Global
Section 2: Future Trends - Global
Technology
Demographics & Age
Data & Personalisation
Contextual/relevant/intelligent
Machine learning/Target
Robotics & 3D Printing
Over half Google’s last acquisitions have been robotics
Technology (1)
Where are online consumers of the future?
Asia is > than combined Europe, Americas & ME
And online doesn’t only mean computers….
Technology (2)
The human brain can hold approx. 5 TB of data, the internet has 5 million TB
Google has indexed less that 0.05% of the internet.
To reach 50 million users:
Radio: 38 years
TV : 13 years
Internet: 5 years
Today, 69% of children aged 2 to 5 can use a mouse but only 11% can tie their
shoelaces
Technology (3)
Who are the global ‘electronic’ commerce leaders?
: bigger cash balance than US Gov.
: e-books outsell paper and hard backs
: now sell more fixed than auction goods
: mkt value > P&G on NYSE; 279 mn active users
: shipped > products than Amazon or Ebay?
What has Bob bought online?
Music
Clothes
Greeting Cards
Pizza
Barbie Playhouse
Technology (4) The Multi Screen World
Meet Alysha
It’s now all about the online ECOSYSTEM
Demographics / Age
Millennial’s and Gen X/Y/Z is all good but….
People are living longer
Seems like everyone is forgetting the above
3D Printing
Global trends - recap
Unprecedented growth in digital activity - across all ages, nationalities, gender etc – the
internet is a great leveller
Data – hyper analytical
Divergence of devices – tablets, smartphones, laptops, netbooks, watches, glasses
Convergence of needs – seamless & personalized access across the online world
We need to identify what matters, ignore what doesn’t
Section 3:
Emirates and
the aviation industry
Airline Industry – Past Flows
Global Traffic Streams in the 80’s
European & US carriers dominated global air traffic
Airline Industry – Present Flows
Global Traffic Streams are changing, fast…..
Asian & Middle Eastern carriers entering the markets and shift the traffic via new hubs
Airline Industry - Diversifying
Air travel is becoming more geographically diverse….
Airline Industry – The Future
5.5 billion people live within 8 flight hours of Dubai
Growing to 7.8 billion in 2030
China
728
2005
698
474
Africa
2005
2030
1,970
1,453
314
2005
1,446
Europe
2030
Middle East
1,316
2030
2005
1463
2030
South Asia
589
743
906
2005
Emirates is right in the middle of the future!
2030
2005
2030
Asia Pacific
Emirates – Stat Attack
Maximisation of network profit
•
140 destinations in 6 continents
•
All Emirates aircraft are wide body: 220+ seats
•
Flights range from 40mins to 17 hours in duration
•
17 flights a day non-stop to the UK
•
LHR – 5 A380’s daily (14/76/427 seats on each)
•
54 A380s currently in operation
•
Strong focus on Africa, 22 destinations
•
Nearly all destinations served daily, year round
•
Truly global
Emirates – The Future (Vision)
Maximisation of network profit
•
200+ aircraft still on order including 50+ more A380’s
•
So the focus must be on growth, growth, growth
•
But must maintain the business model (cost, efficiency, hub)
•
Continue to recruit high calibre individuals
•
Continue to emphasise on brand and product
•
Ensure scalability of our hub - terminal, service etc
•
Don’t underestimate competition or new business models
Emirates – The Future (Dubai Airport)
The hub is critical
The world’s single largest terminal dedicated to only 1 airline
Current capacity 75 million passengers/year(LHR=69million)
Concourse 3 opened 01 Jan 13, exclusively for Emirates and worlds first dedicated
A380 concourse – 20 stands
New airport (DWC) now open
The future of airports, a full topic by itself!
Concourse 1
Concourse 2
Emirates – The Future (Potential)
5.5 billion people within 8 hours of Dubai (7.8 bn in 2030)
6.3 billion people within 16 hours of Dubai (8.2 bn in 2030)
How much potential is out there?
10 % of the 5.5 billion passengers travel
20 % of the 550 million passengers travel via a Gulf Hub
All these passengers have a return ticket
50 % of these passengers fly on Emirates
Year 2009
Potential
• Sounds crazy? Or does it?
Passengers
27.4 million
110 million
Fleet
135
550
550 million
110 million
220 million
110 million
Today’s travel landscape
This entire environment did not
even exist 20 years ago, what
does that mean for 2030?
What keeps Bob up at night
This entire environment did not
exist 20 years ago either!
Section 4:
Future Trends - Travel
Overview
The internet has changed the aviation industry
Direct Booking
Self Service – e-tickets / mobile boarding passes
On Board Wi-fi
Identification/Security for fast track at airport
What next?
We are not thinking airline - we think travel
Mobile – will it change the world?
1. New Business Models
Rent, Share, Subscribe
Rent
• Air Bnb
• Uber
Subscribe
• Netflix
• Spotify
Can the airline industry learn/adapt from the above?
Share
• UberPool
• Lyft
2. Modes of transport
Air:
Long-haul low cost
Stand up travel
No Pilots / Self Drive
Airships
Trains
Little Red R.I.P
Hyper-loop
Teleportation
Example: Hyperloop
3. Wearable Technology
4. The Travel Ecosystem
How can we harness the travel ecosystem?
Emirates Suitcases: no-lose guarantee
Google Glass – gimmick…or not?
5. Community travel
Fully immersive - VR
Experience Emirates without flying
Travel / Organic Groups
for what you want
with who you went
all pay how you want
all add extras as you want
Predictive/Anticipatory offers
Section 5:
Summary
Summary
Harder to innovate/change when you are already successful
But has to be done
Incremental vs. transformational innovation
Keep anticipating or you will get run over…..
Any industry – Kodak, Nokia, Blockbuster, Yahoo
Cross ‘industry’ – Disney Cruises, Samsung Kitchens, Amazon Grocery
Left Field – Dyson Fan, iPad, The Palm, Netflix, Spotify
Travel: Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Tesco, Google?
Thank you
bob.kabli@emirates.com