ING Financial Markets RuONIA Overnight Index Swap Market in Russia November 2010 Moscow CONTENTS I. RuONIA background • History, current state and future prospects • Comparison with MosPrime II. RuONIA OIS: issues and solutions • Legal, calculation and discount curve • Settlement, liquidity and market-making III. Appendix: OIS market comparison • November 2010 Comparison of EONIA, SONIA and RUONIA 1 RUONIA BACKGROUND What is RuONIA: RuONIA and OIS history: • Rouble-denominated • Much preparatory work over last 2 years • Trade-weighed overnight rate index • Calculation methodology agreed July 2010 • Based on actual money market deposits • CBR started publishing RuONIA from 8th Sep • Participants are (currently) 31 banks of highest credit quality that cover more than 50% of the interbank market • Organizational bodies are the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) and the National Foreign Exchange Association (NFEA) Calculation method: Average daily volume Deals that are too large calculated excluded Remaining deals Non-representative buckets Remaining volume bucketed excluded calculated If too low, criteria eased Volume-weighted formula and last 2 steps repeated applied • First offshore 1 week RuONIA OIS trade DB London – EBRD • First locally booked 1 week trade (ING – EBRD) 13th Oct • First locally booked 1 month trade (ING – EBRD) via ICAP 11th Nov • First locally booked 3 month trade (ING – EBRD) via ICAP 15th Nov European EONIA OIS market Future development: • Interest from participants; regular meetings: NFEA, ICAP etc. • Daily RuONIA OIS fix, similar to the NFEA daily FX swap fix • RuONIA OIS central clearing through MICEX OIS curve has the potential to become very important: the curve of choice for the regulator and participants Source: ECB November 2010 2 RUONIA MOSPRIME COMPARISON MosPrime against RuONIA 7.00 MosPrime Ruonia 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00 11.01.2010 24.02.2010 07.04.2010 21.05.2010 RuONIA is not a replacement of MosPrime It is an additional benchmark with its own properties • MosPrime: offer rate at which banks are ready to lend • RuONIA: rate of ACTUAL trades done 02.07.2010 13.08.2010 24.09.2010 09.11.2010 MosPrime – RuONIA basis 120 100 80 60 40 20 Benefit of full protection from manipulation However, timing disadvantage (published 5 pm next day) 0 11.01.2010 24.02.2010 07.04.2010 21.05.2010 02.07.2010 13.08.2010 24.09.2010 09.11.2010 -20 -40 • Basis is 27bp on average and has a tendency for tightening -60 -80 November 2010 3 OIS ISSUES AND SOLUTIONS ISSUES LEGAL ISSUE SOLUTION • Legal uncertainty • Standardized documentation - Few RISDA agreements has been signed so far - Long Form Confirmation based on ISDA/RISDA – to sign - RISDA lacks some sections needed for OIS trading - Term Sheet – to exchange - Uncertain implementation, esp. netting and default clause • To request RuONIA contributors to put in place at least 10 agreements with each other • Online trade matching service CALCULATION ISSUE SOLUTION • Difficulty in agreeing cashflows with precision • Specialized online service - Calculating cashflows for individual trades / whole portfolios - Possible providers: CBR, MICEX, Bloomberg, Reuters - Developed markets services: DTCC, triOptima DISCOUNT CURVE ISSUE SOLUTION • Need for discount curve for derivatives trades • Firm agreement as to which curve to use - To start with MosPrime - To introduce OIS points on the curve gradually • To offer quotes for OIS up to 3 months • Regular meetings to evaluate quality of data used November 2010 4 OIS ISSUES AND SOLUTIONS (2) SETTLEMENT ISSUE SOLUTION • Shortage of knowledgeable support staff • To issue accounting recommendations • Accounting/settlement systems not ready - To confirm that P&L is calculated as discounted MTM • Inconsistent accounting among banks • Third party clearing (MICEX or expert bank like ING) LIQUIDITY AND MARKET-MAKING ISSUE SOLUTION • Lack of liquidity so far • To nominate 5 or 10 of 31 RuONIA contributing banks to offer firm OIS quotes • Introduction of experienced OIS brokers services November 2010 5 APPENDIX OIS MARKETS COMPARISON EONIA SONIA RUONIA Underlying Indexes Currency EUR GBP RUB Stands for: Euro Overnight Index Average Sterling Overnight Index Average Ruble Overnight Index Average Index History 4th January 1999 24th March 1997 11th January 2010 Index Calculation Weighted average rate of all unsecured, Weighted average rate of all unsecured, overnight cash transactions undertaken overnight cash transactions brokered in in the interbank market, initiated London by WMBA member firms between within the euro area by the banks midnight and 16:15 (London Time) with all counterparties in a minimum deal size of contributing to the Euriobor survey. £25m. SOLUTION Weighted average rate of unsecured, overnight interest rates based on money market loans and deposits between (currently) 31 banks. Organisational body European Banking Federation (EBF) Wholesale Market Brokers' Association and the Financial Markets Association (WMBA) (ACI) Central Bank of Russia (CBR) and the National Foreign Exchange Association (NFEA) Contributors The Euribor Reporting Panel The five major interdealer brokers (ICAP, All 31 banks licensed by the CBR currently numbering 49 banks. Made Tullet Prebon, Sterling International up of the banks transacting the highest Brokers, Martin Brokers & Tradition) volumes of business in Eurozone money report volumes of trade running through markets. defined price bands - typically 0.01% wide. Calculated by European Central Bank (ECB) Currently Thomson Reuters - responsibility Central Bank of Russia (CBR) is due to be taken back by the WMBA within the next 6 months Daily fixing published at: 19:00 CET 17:00 London Time November 2010 Next day (5 pm Moscow time) 6 APPENDIX OIS MARKETS COMPARISON (2) EONIA SONIA RUONIA OIS Markets Outright swaps 1-week to 2-years active trading, trade 1-week to 2-years active trading, trade seen 1 week to 6 months seen out to 10-years. out to 10-years. 1, 3, 6 &12-month gap spreads and 1, 3, 6 &12-month gap spreads and IMM 1,2,3 months gap spreads must be Fwd swaps IMM dated fwd markets active out to dated fwd markets active out to 3-years executable 2-years ECB reserve period dated contracts MPC reserve period dated contracts liquid liquid out to 9 months out to 18 months Euribor/Libor-Overnight Index Outright spreads active out to 10-years Outright spreads active out to 10-years None at the moment swap spreads with trade seen out to 30-years with trade seen out to 30-years Typical clip sizes Settlement Date convention Daily OIS fixings Clearing Standard documentation Futures Markets IMM FRA/EONIA spreads active in white and red months, green prices also seen €1bn out to 1-month €1bn out to 3-months €500m out to 1-year €100-200m in term T+2 ACT/360 No Mainly through LCH.Clearnet ISDA SOLUTION IMM FRA/SONIA spreads active in white and red months, green prices also seen £1bn out to 1-month £500m out to 3-months £250 out to 1-year £100m in term T ACT/365 No Mainly through LCH.Clearnet ISDA NYSE Euronext: IMM dated, 3-month NYSE Euronext - has been under EONIA Swap Index contracts active in consideration, but no immediate plans to white and red months. Developing launch mainly as a spread to Euribor Futures. Index calculated from contributing banks as part of the Euribor survey November 2010 2 bln RUB out to 1m 1 bln RUB out to 2m 500 mio RUB out to 3m 500 mio RUB out to 6m T+1 ACT/365 No No central clearing ISDA, RISDA None at the moment 7 Q&A November 2010 8 THANK YOU! November 2010 9