Lawrence Stringer, East Sussex County Council
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Existing research data
The TRICS Research Report 95/2 “Pass-By and
Diverted Trips: A Resume”
Good research but 1995
Often used, sometimes rejected
Things have changed
Investigate the impact and assessment
methodology for pass-by and diverted trips
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Stage 1 - Information Analysis
Literature Review
 UK National Policy
 Travel Behaviour & Trends
 Commercial Research
 Academic Research
 International Research
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Analysis of TRICS data
Stage 2 - Individual Surveys
Peer Review
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Department for Transport: Guidance on Transport
Assessment (2007)
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TfL: Transport Assessment Best Practice Guidance
Document (2010)
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Auckland Regional Transport Authority: Integrated
Transport Assessment Guidelines & Supplementary
Documents (2007)
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National Planning Policy Framework (2012)
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ITE Trip Generation Manual, 9th Edition (2012)
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National Travel Survey
 Distance travelled by car decreasing
 Shopping trips account for one fifth of all trips
 Number of shopping trips per person per year has
decreased year on year between 1995 and 2012
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London Travel Demand Survey
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Online Shopping Trends
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Online Shopping
 UK online grocery market represents approximately
4.5% of the total grocery market.
Kantar Media, 2012
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Online Shopping
 Online grocery shopping increasing by 18.7% over the
past 12 months
 22% of households shopped online for groceries over
the past 12 months
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Click and Collect
Tesco & Asda
Chronodrive
Rapidly growing market
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Somerfield: Shopping Trip Survey (1996)
Somerfield, 1996
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Tesco Survey: Shopping Centres Research – Linked
Trips Information, 2001
Table 4.1 Linked Trips
1.Tesco Stores Ltd, 2001
Store
% Respondents
Visit shop before
Tesco only
Visit shop after
Tesco only
Visit shop before
and after Tesco
Total
visiting
another shop
Basingstoke
27
18
5
50
Coventry
34
12
3
49
Milton Keynes
25
8
1
34
Peterborough
40
6
8
54
Stevenage
46
12
8
64
Surrey Quays
38
7
8
53
Average
33
11
5
49
Harries et al. (2012) Trip Generation Characteristics of Large-Format
Retail Development Sites in Auckland
 High proportion of secondary (pass-by and diverted) trips exist, being in
the range of 57-67%.
Ghezawi et al. (1998) Convenience Store Trip Generation
 average percentage of pass-by trips recorded was 72%,
 relationship between pass-by trip percentage and adjacent street
volumes
Mouchel (2009) Proposed Tesco Store & Shopping Centre, West
Bromwich: Working Paper 3 – Linked Trips
 pass-by level 40% considered robust estimate during weekday PM peak
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MacIver, A. (1999) Transportation Impact Assessment: Forecasting
Travel Demand
General rules for the proportions of pass-by trips at superstore
developments in the UK:
 Superstores on major commuting routes in larger urban areas - 25-35%;
 Less commuting routes, in out-of-town locations and in urban areas
with smaller populations - 15 to 25%;
 In town centres and on non-primary routes the proportion - 10%; and
 In locations with little propensity to generate pass-by trips the
proportion can be as low as 5%.
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88 sites from TRICS Database
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5 Location Types:
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Town Centre
Edge of Town Centre
Suburban (A)
Suburban (B)
Edge of Town
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Surveys from 2000 onwards only
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Mixture of Friday and Saturday surveys
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GFA & Location Type
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No correlation
Figure 7.1 GFA by Location
8000
7000
Average GFA (sqm)
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
Town Centre
Edge of Town Centre
Suburban (A)
Suburban (B)
Edge of Town
Proximity to major shopping types
 A correlation exists to nearest commercial area
9
8
Proximity to Area Type (km)
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7
6
Residential
5
Commercial
4
Competition
SRN
3
2
1
0
Town Centre
Edge of Town Centre
Suburban (A)
Suburban (B)
Edge of Town
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Trip rates
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Weekday and weekend daily period (07:00-19:00) trip rate increases as
distance from town centre increases
Peak hour spreading 1600 – 1900
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Location Type
07:00-19:00
08:00-09:00
16:00-17:00
17:00-18:00
18:00-19:00
Town Centre
71.573
5.452
7.260
7.423
6.186
Edge of Town Centre
95.317
4.018
10.808
11.001
11.287
Suburban Area (A)
111.585
2.661
11.066
11.621
11.251
Suburban Area (B)
121.428
4.845
11.552
12.104
12.654
Edge of Town
134.059
5.402
13.104
14.271
12.392
TRICS Average
116.983
7.134
11.632
12.334
11.639
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Weekday daily period trip rate increases as distance from
town centre increases
140
135
Daily Trip Rate (07:00-19:00)
130
125
120
115
110
105
100
95
90
Town Centre
Edge of Town Centre
Suburban (A)
Suburban (B)
Edge of Town
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Facilities
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12 types of facilities considered. As GFA increases, the facilities provided
within the store expands.
14000
12000
GFA (sqm)
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
0
1
2
3
4
5
No. of Facilities
6
7
8
9
10
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Facilities against Location Type
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Range of facilities on offer increases as distance from the
town centre increases
8
Average No of Facilities
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Town Centre
Intermediates
Location Type
Edge of Town
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GFA & Population
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4+ facilities = comparison stores, less than 4 facilities = convenience
stores.
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No observable correlation between population per 1,000m2 GFA and
GFA, location type, proximity to major area types or type of facilities
provided.
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As GFA drops below 3,000m2, population per 1,000m2 GFA also
decreases
Literature Review
 Lack of direction on how prevalence of pass-by and diverted trips
should be addressed.
 Methodologies to assess these trips not provided in many policy
guidelines.
 Commercial research has brought contradictory results
 Propensity for store customers to visit other shops within a town
centre.
 Shopping habits are changing rapidly, especially online retail
shopping and click and collect services.
 UK online grocery market represents approximately 4.5% of the total
grocery market; increasing annually.
 Online shopping trends and click and collect services to be considered
in determining trip rates and trip type proportions.
TRICS Data Review
 88 sites
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Correlation between location type and proximity to the nearest
commercial area
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Friday peak period for store activity 1600 to 1900
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Saturday peak period 100 to 1200
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Trip rate increases as distance from town centre increases
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No correlation between GFA and daily trip rate.
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No observable correlation between population per 1,000m2 GFA and
GFA, location type, proximity to nearest competition, proximity to
nearest residential area or commercial area of type of facilities provided.
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Store location type is most important factor for consideration.
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TRICS data review shows population and GFA to be less important
factors.
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Surveys to focus on the two ends of the scale – town centre and edge
of town sites. Six surveys at each location type.
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Surveys to investigate the facilities on offer in each store and whether
these are a point of influence in trip choice.
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Surveys at click and collect locations to be undertaken.
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Graham Scholefield, University of Salford
Martin Rogers, Dublin Institute of Technology
Andrew MacIver, Napier University Edinburgh
Dilum Dissanayake, University of Newcastle
Rachel Aldred, University of Westminster
Gordon Stokes, University of Oxford
Andrew Murdoch, TPP Consulting
Richard Sweet, PB Consultants
Melvyn Dresner, Transport for London
Stuart Wilson, Transport Scotland
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Survey Categories
 Town Centre
 Edge of Town
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Number of Surveys
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Questions for inclusion in survey interviews
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Online shopping trends influencing overall store trip rates