Lessons from the Montreal Protocol for Climate Policy

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Limitations of Single-Basket Trading:
Lessons from the Montreal Protocol for Climate Policy
John S. Daniel
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Chemical Sciences Division
Boulder, Colorado USA
Limitations of Single-Basket Trading: Lessons from the Montreal Protocol for
Climate Policy, Daniel, Solomon, Sanford, McFarland, Fuglestvedt, and
Friedlingstein, Climatic Change, 2012 (online 2011).
3 April 2012, Bonn, Germany
Limitations of Single-Basket Trading:
Lessons from the Montreal Protocol for Climate Policy
John S. Daniel
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Chemical Sciences Division
Boulder, Colorado USA
Montreal Protocol Success
A Lesson for Climate Policy
Implications for HFC Policy
Limitations of Single-Basket Trading: Lessons from the Montreal Protocol for
Climate Policy, Daniel, Solomon, Sanford, McFarland, Fuglestvedt, and
Friedlingstein, Climatic Change, 2012 (online 2011).
3 April 2012, Bonn, Germany
Montreal Protocol
Multiple Basket Approach
• Groups of gases controlled separately (e.g., CFCs, HCFCs,
halons, etc.)
3 April 2012, Bonn, Germany
Montreal Protocol
Multiple Basket Approach
• Groups of gases controlled separately (e.g., CFCs, HCFCs,
halons, etc.)
• No “trading” among groups
3 April 2012, Bonn, Germany
Montreal Protocol
Multiple Basket Approach
• Groups of gases controlled separately (e.g., CFCs, HCFCs,
halons, etc.)
Adapted from
• No “trading” among groups
Velders et al, PNAS, 2007
• Highly successful
A Measure
Of Success
3 April 2012, Bonn, Germany
Montreal Protocol
Multiple Basket Approach
• Groups of gases controlled separately (e.g., CFCs, HCFCs,
halons, etc.)
Adapted from
• No “trading” among groups
Velders et al, PNAS, 2007
• Highly successful
• CFCs/HCFCs Illustration
No Protocol
A Measure
Of Success
3 April 2012, Bonn, Germany
2000
1500
Obs - based
INCREASING OZONE LOSS
Equivalent Effective Stratospheric Chlorine
CFC/HCFC Contribution to O3 Depletion
Projections
1000
500
0
1960
3 April 2012, Bonn, Germany
1980
2000
2020
2040
Year
2060
2080
2100
2000
Only HCFC Consumption
INCREASING OZONE LOSS
Equivalent Effective Stratospheric Chlorine
Impact of a Trade to HCFCs
1500
1000
500
0
1960
3 April 2012, Bonn, Germany
1980
2000
2020
2040
Year
2060
2080
2100
2000
Only HCFC Consumption
INCREASING OZONE LOSS
Equivalent Effective Stratospheric Chlorine
Single-Basket Range of O3 Depletion
1500
1000
Only CFC Consumption
500
Baseline
0
1960
3 April 2012, Bonn, Germany
1980
2000
EESC Limit from Single-Basket Regulation
2020
2040
Year
2060
2080
2100
Kyoto Protocol
Single Basket Approach
CH4
CO2
SF6
N2O
3 April 2012, Bonn, Germany
Kyoto Protocol
Single Basket Approach
CH4
SF6
2010 Radiative Forcing
CO2
N2O
SF6
PFCs
HFCs-Velders
HFCs-RCP
N2O
CH4
CO2
0.0
0.5
1.0
W/m2
3 April 2012, Bonn, Germany
1.5
2.0
Kyoto Protocol
Single Basket Approach
CH4
SF6
2010 Radiative Forcing
CO2
N2O
SF6
PFCs
HFCs-Velders
HFCs-RCP
N2O
CH4
CO2
0.0
0.5
1.0
W/m2
3 April 2012, Bonn, Germany
1.5
2.0
CO2/CH4 Impact on Climate
(RCP4.5)
Radiative Forcing
Temperature Change
6
4
3
o
C
W/m2
4
2
2
1
0
1900
2000
2100
3 April 2012, Bonn, Germany
2200
2300
2400
0
1900
2000
2100
2200
2300
2400
Impact of a Trade to All CH4 Emissions
Radiative Forcing
Temperature Change
6
4
3
o
C
W/m2
4
2
All CH4
2
1
0
1900
2000
2100
3 April 2012, Bonn, Germany
2200
2300
2400
0
1900
2000
2100
2200
2300
2400
Impact of a Trade to All CO2 Emissions
Radiative Forcing
Temperature Change
6
4
All CO2
3
o
C
W/m2
4
2
2
1
0
1900
2000
2100
3 April 2012, Bonn, Germany
2200
2300
2400
0
1900
2000
2100
2200
2300
2400
Ambiguity of Single Basket
Radiative Forcing
Temperature Change
6
4
3
o
C
W/m2
4
2
2
1
0
1900
2000
2100
3 April 2012, Bonn, Germany
2200
2300
2400
0
1900
2000
2100
2200
2300
2400
Implications for HFCs
Velders et al, PNAS, 2009
3 April 2012, Bonn, Germany
Implications for HFCs
Radiative Forcing Change
from 2010 to 2050 (RCP8.5)
SF6
PFCs
HFCs-Velders
HFCs-RCP
N2O
CH4
CO2
Velders et al, PNAS, 2009
0.00
1.8
0.25
W/m2
3 April 2012, Bonn, Germany
0.50
Implications for HFCs
This can all
be avoided
Velders, PNAS, 2009
3 April 2012, Bonn, Germany
Implications for HFCs
Radiative Forcing
Temperature Change
6
4
3
4
C
o
W/m2
This can all
be avoided
2
2
Potential
Long-term penalty
1
0
1900
Velders, PNAS, 2009
2000
2100
3 April 2012, Bonn, Germany
2200
2300
2400
0
1900
2000
2100
2200
2300
2400
N2O and Ozone Depletion
3 April 2012, Bonn, Germany
Ravishankara et al., 2009
Conclusions
• The Montreal Protocol successfully implemented a
multi-basket approach to deal with the international
problem of stratospheric ozone depletion.
• A single-basket approach, as used in the Kyoto
Protocol, can lead to some level of ambiguity in the
climate impact of regulation.
• If regulation on some group of gases (e.g., HFCs) has
the inadvertent affect of delaying CO2 regulation,
this will have multi-century climate implications.
3 April 2012, Bonn, Germany
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