WECC 10-Year Plan general presentation

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Bradley Nickell
Director of Transmission Planning
Planning for Renewables
Iowa State University WESEP-REU
June 12, 2012
1
2
About WECC
WECC’s mission is to promote and foster a
reliable and efficient bulk electric system
3
Non-Planning Functions
• Compliance Monitoring
and Enforcement
• Standards Development
• Reliability Coordination
• Market-Operations
interface
• Operator training
• WREGIS
Planning Functions
• Loads and Resources
Assessments
• Reliability studies
• Transmission Expansion
Planning
Regional Transmission Expansion Planning
History of Interconnection-wide planning in the West
• Planning cooperation among Western
Interconnection entities
o Create economic planning data sets
o Perform interconnection-wide transmission
expansion studies
o Process consistent with applicable FERC Order
890 planning principles
• Governed by the WECC Transmission
Expansion Planning Policy Committee
(TEPPC)
4
Agenda
•
•
•
•
5
What are we planning for?
Resource Planning
Modeling Renewable Resources
Telling the story
What are we planning for?
• Identification of future infrastructure needs to
1. Serve the expected load reliably
2. Meet public policy directives
3. Minimize cost and environmental impact
• Transmission planning – identify future
transmission capacity needs given a future
set of loads and resources
– It’s all about resource planning
6
2013 10- and 20-year Transmission Plans
Connecting the Dots
How might the Western Interconnection need to change to accommodate
changes in the supply and demand for electric energy?
• 10-year – understanding
impacts of near-term
decisions (bottoms-up)
• 20-year – understanding
drivers of potential energy
futures (top-down)
• The Plans tell the story of
how they are connected
7
2032
2022
2012
Understanding Impacts of decisions, not
making determinations on what should
be done
Transmission Expansion
Planning Process
Study
Requests
• SPSG Scenarios
• Study requests
from all interested
parties through the
TEPPC Open
Season
8
Study Case
Prioritization
• Initial prioritization
• Review by
stakeholders
• Public comment
• Create Study
Program
Analysis
• Input by all
interested parites
through direct
participation in
Workgroups
• Review by
stakeholders
Create
Transmission
Plan
• Initial Plan and
review in analysis
process
• Review
stakeholders
• Public comment
• WECC Board
approval
2022 TEPPC Common Case –
Resource Assumptions
Resources
Loads
Transmission
2022
Common
Case
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Developing Resource Assumptions
1. Gather load assumptions
2. Identify state renewable energy
requirements
3. Specify the renewable portfolio
4. Update conventional resources
5. Identify conventional resource retirements
6. Check the load and resource balance
10
RPS Policies
www.dsireusa.org / May 2012
WA: 15% x 2020*
MN: 25% x 2025
MT: 15% x 2015
(Xcel: 30% x 2020)
SD: 10% x 2015 WI: Varies by utility;
~10% x 2015 statewide
NV: 25% x 2025* CO: 30% by 2020 (IOUs)
IA: 105 MW
10% by 2020 (co-ops & large munis)*
CA: 33% x 2020
UT: 20% by 2025*
KS: 20% x 2020
RI: 16% x 2020
NY: 29% x 2015
CT: 27% x 2020
OH: 25% x 2025†
IL: 25% x 2025
IN: 10% x 2025†
PA: ~18% x 2021†
WV: 25% x 2025*†
VA: 15% x 2025*
NJ: 20.38% RE x 2021
+ 5,316 GWh solar x 2026
MO: 15% x 2021
AZ: 15% x 2025
OK: 15% x 2015
NM: 20% x 2020 (IOUs)
NH: 23.8% x 2025
New RE: 15% x 2020
(+1% annually thereafter)
x 2015*
5% - 10% x 2025 (smaller utilities)
ME: 30% x 2000
New RE: 10% x 2017
MA: 22.1% x 2020
MI: 10% & 1,100 MW
ND: 10% x 2015
OR: 25% x 2025 (large utilities)*
VT: (1) RE meets any increase
in retail sales x 2012;
(2) 20% RE & CHP x 2017
MD: 20% x 2022
NC: 12.5% x 2021
(IOUs)
10% x 2018 (co-ops & munis)
10% x 2020 (co-ops)
TX: 5,880 MW x 2015
DE: 25% x 2026*
DC
DC: 20% x 2020
PR: 20% x 2035
HI: 40% x 2030
29 states +
Renewable portfolio standard
Renewable portfolio goal
Solar water heating eligible
Minimum solar or customer-sited requirement
*†
Extra credit for solar or customer-sited renewables
Includes non-renewable alternative resources
DC and PR have
an RPS
(8 states have goals)
Overarching RPS Assumptions
• RPS percentages with a discrete jump (e.g., 15%
to 20%) are pro rated using a linear path
– Utah sets a 2025 target without interim requirements
o Linear path sets target at 16% in 2022
• Set-asides are met
– Distributed generation (AZ: 30% of RPS, CO: 3% of
retail sales, NM: 3% of RPS)
– Solar (NV: 1.32% of retail sales, NM: 4% of sales)
• Credits are applied to applicable resources
– CO grants 125% credit to instate generation
– Multipliers (CO: community based projects, NV: solar
PV, WA: distributed generation)
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WECC 2022 Common Case Portfolio
WECC 2022 Energy Generation by Type
(2022 Common Case)
Combined Cycle
15%
Combustion Turbine
Cogeneration
Nuclear
7%
Other
Biomass RPS 1%
Geothermal 4%
Small Hydro RPS 1%
Solar 3%
Renewables
17%
Steam - Coal
26%
Wind 8%
Conventional Hydro
24%
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Production Cost Modeling
• WECC’s studies are run using Promod, which
is a production costing model (PCM) for
projecting future system operating costs
• WECC inputs into the PCM a transmission
network, using a WECC power flow base
case, and a single resource scenario
• the PCM uses these model inputs to perform
a security constrained economic dispatch of
the WECC-wide system for each of 8,760
hours in the year
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Production Cost Modeling
• PCM uses the following inputs to perform a
security constrained economic dispatch of the
WECC-wide system for each hour of the year:
o Generator Unit Characteristics: unit types, heat rates,
fuel types, forced outage rates, minimum downtimes,
etc.
o Load Characteristics: chronological load shapes, etc.
o Transmission Network Characteristics: network
topology, branch/transformer impedances, flow limits,
etc.
o System Operating Requirements:
operating reserve requirements, etc.
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PCM Modeling Inputs for
Variable (Wind and Solar) Generation
• Wind/solar are fixed shape (non-dispatchable)
resources
– NREL meso-scale data
– Hourly generation profiles have been defined for all
wind/solar plants in our dataset
• Result: Wind and solar generation does not
vary unless there is local transmission
congestion preventing the resources from
being used by the system
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Wind and Solar Profile Examples
• Synchronized hourly profiles
(wind & solar)
• Planned VG additions based
on extensive data research
and stakeholder input
• Energy is must-take
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Reference Case Wind Generation
Average Hourly Wind by Month - PC1
16000
14000
January
February
12000
March
April
Megawatts
10000
May
8000
June
July
6000
August
September
4000
October
November
2000
December
0
Annual
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Hour
19
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
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Sample Load/Generation Profile –
AZNMNV Sub-region
35,000
Combustion Turbine
30,000
Steam - Other
Combined Cycle
25,000
Other
Solar
20,000
Wind
Small Hydro RPS
15,000
Geothermal
Biomass RPS
Hydro+PS
10,000
Steam - Coal
Nuclear
5,000
Demand
Dump
0
7/10/2020
20
7/11/2020
7/12/2020
7/13/2020
7/14/2020
7/15/2020
7/16/2020
7/17/2020
7/18/2020
7/19/2020
Sample Load/Generation Profile –
NWPP Sub-region
35,000
30,000
Combustion Turbine
Steam - Other
Combined Cycle
25,000
Other
Solar
20,000
Wind
Small Hydro RPS
Geothermal
15,000
Biomass RPS
Hydro+PS
10,000
Steam - Coal
Nuclear
5,000
Demand
Dump
0
7/10/2020
21
7/11/2020
7/12/2020
7/13/2020
7/14/2020
7/15/2020
7/16/2020
7/17/2020
7/18/2020
7/19/2020
10-Year Regional
Transmission Plan
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www.wecc.biz/10yrPlan
What’s in a Plan
Types of Recommendations?
Expected Future – “The road we’re on”
• Analysis of assumptions
• Is there sufficient transmission capacity?
• Unanswered questions
Identification of Alternatives
• Alternative procurement options to meet policy
directives at less cost
Other Insights
• Identification of follow-up studies
• Suggestions for addressing unanswered questions
• Public policy
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Questions
Bradley Nickell
Director of Transmission Planning
Western Electricity Coordinating Council
155 North 400 West
Salt Lake City, Utah 84103
801.819.7604
[email protected]
All information on the WECC 10-Year
Regional Transmission Plan may be found
at http://www.wecc.biz/10yrPlan.
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Flexibility Reserves
“Additional reserves required to manage the variability and uncertainty
associated with variable generation resources like wind and solar”
(NREL)
• E3 and NREL developed calculation methodology
 Reserve based on 10 minute wind and solar profiles
• Provides an uncertainty factor extended to hourly
analysis
• E3 calculated the hourly flexibility reserves for the
TEPPC wind and solar profiles
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Confidential | ©2012 Ventyx, an ABB company | 25
Flexibility Reserve Flow Diagram
Historical load, wind and solar data
Statistical analysis
Definition of flex reserve
sharing areas (e.g. EIM)
Equations that predict next period
variability based on current values
of load, wind and solar
Hourly analysis data for
study or real-time
(Load, Wind and Solar)
Hourly reserve time series
synchronized to load, wind and
solar
Production Cost Modeling
PROMOD, GridView, etc.
Production modeling
results analysis
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Confidential | ©2012 Ventyx, an ABB company | 26
Composite Hourly Reserve
Requirement
Reserve requirement
4% of
Daily Peak
Load
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Hourly
Flexibility
Reserve
Composite
Hourly
Reserve
Requirement
1-day
Confidential | ©2012 Ventyx, an ABB company | 27
Test Results for August 25 - 26
August 25-26 California South Sub-region
Total Gen Reserve Contribution
Hourly Reserve Requirement
10000
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48
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Confidential | ©2012 Ventyx, an ABB company | 28
Example of Hourly Reserve
Requirement
California South - August 25-26 (MW)
{Load is plotted on secondary axis}
4% of Daily Peak
Flex Reserve
Solar+Wind
Hourly Res
Load (Axis 2)
9000
45000
8000
40000
7000
35000
6000
30000
5000
25000
4000
20000
3000
15000
2000
10000
1000
5000
0
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0
1
3
5
7
9
11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47
Confidential | ©2012 Ventyx, an ABB company | 29
Long-term Planning Tool
The LTPT is a GIS-based capital expansion planning tool
for use in doing long-term transmission planning studies
• Optimizes new generation and transmission build out
• Incorporates reliability, policy, environmental, and cost
considerations
Current Status
• Integrated testing continues
• Last minute data submittals being incorporated into the
model
• Will begin production studies in June
Information from the LTPT complements results
provided by the production cost model
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LTPT Process Flow
Scenarios
Proxies
Criteria
Data
Assertions
Load
Environmental
Considerations
Identify
Resources
Optimize
Transmission
Optimize
Generation
Transmission
Generation
Operating
Characteristics
Alternative
Candidates
Measure
Impacts
Policy
Consideration
Transmission
Capital Costs
Alternative
Candidates
Compare
Energy Futures
Social
Considerations
Capital Costs
Energy
Constraints
Capital Costs
Screen
Alternatives
Cultural
Considerations
Geospatial
Capacity
Constraints
Grid
Constraints
Inform Other
Planning
Federal & State
Mandates
Stakeholder
Collaboration
Tiered
Optimization
Expansion
Plan
Inform Decision
Makers
Optimize
Public policy along with reliability, technology, and
environmental considerations drive the LTPT
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Results
Analytics
Identify High
Value Projects
LTPT Renewable Resource Hubs
Leveraging the WREZ Hubs
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Water Availability and Usage
Water Availability Example
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Environmental Data
Bringing land-use into planning processes
• Develop and incorporate information on land,
wildlife, cultural, historical, archaeological, and
water resources into the transmission planning
process
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Data being integrated into the LTPT
Detailed Examination of Expansion
Alternatives - “Bending the Lines”
Optimal Corridor Using ROW and Road Alignments Optimal Cross-Country Corridor
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RTEP Long-term Planning Scenarios
Economy
To Have and Have Not
Widespread economic growth
Increasing standards of living
Evolutionary changes in technology
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The New Frontier
Widespread economic growth
Increasing standards of living
Paradigm changes in technology
Technology
Costs Matter
Narrow and slow economic growth
Stagnating standards of living
Evolutionary changes in technology
Renewables to the Rescue
Narrow and slow economic growth
Stagnating standards of living
Paradigm changes in technology
The Long-term Planning Tool will be used to
analyze the long-term scenarios
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