Labor market policies Labor market policies: historical and comparative perspectives 3 Philippe Askenazy (Paris School of Economics) www.jourdan.ens.fr/~askenazy/laborpolicy.htm 1 of 20 Outline 1980-1985 - US = new macroeconomic policy Labor market policies - UK = new “industrial” policy - France: inefficient policies ? 1986 : new unemployment theories - France: from stock market crash to growth recovery 2 of 20 1981-83: dramatic unemployment rise despite new policy Labor market policies 1979: Thatcher 1981: Reagan Unemployment rate (ILO/OECD) 1981 1983 US France Germany Italy Japan Sweden 7.6 7.0 4.5 7.9 2.3 2.8 9.6 8.0 7.8 9.4 2.7 3.9 3 of 20 Why ? 1979: US = a new macroeconomic Paradigm Second Oil shock Labor market policies FED President: Paul Volcker Rules versus discretion Kydland, Finn E., and Edward C. Prescott. “Rules Rather than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans”, Journal of Political Economy (June 1977), pp. 473—91. Lucas, Jr., Robert E. “Econometric Policy Evaluation: A Critique,” Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy (vol. 1, 1975), pp. 19—46. 4 of 20 Labor market policies US: Volcker + Reagan 5 of 20 UK ≠ US Unemployment did not decline during the 1980’s Why? Thatcher’s policy = a rapid transition from manufacturing to financial activities 0,25 0,2 Financial services manufacturing 0,15 0,1 20 07 20 05 20 03 20 01 19 99 19 97 19 95 19 93 19 91 19 89 19 87 19 85 19 83 19 81 0,05 19 79 Labor market policies 0,3 6 of 20 UK Components of the UK “industrial” policy: - Labor market policies - - 7 of 20 France: 1981-1983, a leftist policy Labor market policies Mitterrand: President Mauroy: Prime Minister Socialists + communists But a center-left government for economic affairs Delors: Minister of Economics and Finance Fabius: Ministry of Budget Rocard: Ministry of Planning Very optimistic expectations: why? A “new” macro-policy A “new” micro-policy 8 of 20 France: 1981-1983 macro-policy Labor market policies Idea 1: control the banking system through nationalization Idea 2: economic outlook => boost consumption Eg. Minimal pensions +50% State benefits in real terms + 12% Minimum wage in real terms + 10% + 160,000 civil servants Problem: again the expectations were too optimistic! huge trade imbalance huge deficit devaluation… unsustainable policy 9 of 20 France: 1983-1986 “macro-policy” Fabius Prime Minister in 1983 Labor market policies Le “tournant de la rigueur” stabilization of public spending break of the indexation of wages on prices drop of inflation atone demand 10 of 20 Labor market policies Unemployment raised but inflation dropped . “Euro zone” 11 of 20 1981-1986 “micro-policy”: Sharing labor Labor market policies 5 years to reach the 35-hour workweek ≠ Dutch Wassenaar agreements First (and last!) step in 1982: 39-hour + 5 weeks of vacations ex-post evaluations (in the 2000’s!): no job creation hourly productivity gains Retirement age: 60 down from 65 no impact because already 60 in practice BUT Pre-retirements 700,000 in 1984 + Low-paid jobs in non-market activities ~ 500,000 significantly reduced unemployment rate and smoothed the industrial policy 12 of 20 Labor market policies 1981-1986 modernization of France? Industrial policy and education Nationalization of giant manufacturers eg. UsinorSacilor (steal)… Followed by massive downsizing - 250,000 jobs in manufacturing profits recovery Liberalization of financial and stock markets (too late ?) => Foreign stockholders + bank/insurance expansion Free radios, private TV channel => Entertainment industry Effort on secondary education including vocational degree => In one decade: democratization with rapid expansion of the share of youths with the Bac 13 of 20 New unemployment theories: Hysteresis and euro-sclerosis Labor market policies Blanchard O. L. Summers, 1986, “Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem”, NBER Macroecnomics Annual, vol. 1. Targeted policies on long-term unemployed design of labor policies to avoid long-run consequences 14 of 20 Micro labor economics 1981-1986 Birth of “modern” labor market economics Lindbeck-Snower, Layard-Nickell: insiders/outsiders Labor market policies Shapiro-Stiglitz: efficiency wage/ shirkers Pissarides: job flows, matching function new prescriptions for labor policies - 15 of 20 France 1986-1988, Chirac the liberal… France in 1986 ~ UK in 1979 Labor market policies Economic environment: the oil counter shock… and the October, 20 1987 stock market crash Idea 1: reducing the weight of the State and a society of stockholders Income tax cuts including the “Impôt sur les grandes fortunes” Privatization for about 2% of GDP But stock market crash… 16 of 20 France 1986-1988, Chirac the liberal… Idea 2: plummeting the rigidities of labor market Favor part-time jobs, short-term contracts Labor market policies temporary jobs France is currently the third market for temp agencies among OECD ~ 2 to 3% of the workforce 17 of 20 France: 1986-1988, Youth policy and territories Labor market policies 1986: Social tax cuts for the employment of young workers So massive windfall effects that they were removed in 1987… except for on-the-job education… … extended to tertiary education substitution between age groups + expansion of social treatment of unemployment reduction of youth unemployment but stagnation of unemployment rate “la reconversion” (again ~ Thatcher policy) i.e. support to zones hurt by de-industrialization through improving workers’ mobility, and specific social tax cuts poor efficiency 18 of 20 Labor market policies Low inflation but unemployment still high. “Euro zone” 19 of 20 France 1988-1990: Center-left Mitterrand reelected Rocard PM with a “gouvernement d’ouverture” Labor market policies Encouraging expectations… and realizations International growth. Why ? In France GDP growth ~ 4% yearly 1988-1990 Growth but very cautious policy: stabilization or rationalization of current tools, freezing of privatization One exception: the RMI “Revenu minimum d’insertion” poor efficiency for labor market. Why ? 20 of 20 Minimum income support for family in some European countries (PPP euros per month, 2007) Labor market policies Couple with one child Alone with one child 21 of 20 Labor market policies “Euro zone”: 1987-1990 a new Phillips curve? 22 of 20 1988-1990 Decline of short and long-term unemployment in Europe End of stagflation: low persistent inflation rate Labor market policies End of the hysteresis phenomenon? 23 of 20