EURO4M – WP2: Regional Reanalysis Overview Dale Barker, Tomas Landelius, Eric Bazile, Christoph Frei, Phil Jones 2 April 2012 © Crown Copyright 2012 2012.Source: Source:Met MetOffice Office EURO4M WP2 • • • • • WP2.1 Building capacity for advanced regional data assimilation (MetO) WP2.2 Dynamical downscaling of ERA (SMHI). WP2.3 2D mesoscale downscaling (Météo France). WP2.4 Evaluation (MeteoSwiss). WP2.5 Improvement of input data for reanalyses (UEA) Now © Crown Copyright 2012. Source: Met Office WP2.1 Building capacity for advanced regional data assimilation Current 12km grid 480 x 384 • Horizontal domain unchanged from last year. • Decision made in FY2011-12 to align EURO4M vertical levels, physics, etc with global NWP/climate model (previously aligned with regional NWP ensemble). © Crown Copyright 2012. Source: Met Office ECMWF “interface” Met Office UM Running at ECMWF © Crown Copyright 2012. Source: Met Office Regional NWP – Why Bother? Benefit Of European Regional NWP vs 25km global model (UM): Regional NWP + Regional DA Surface Wind-Speed T+6 – T+48 T+0 – T+6 Cloud Amount T+0 – T+48 T+0 – T+6 Visibility T+0 – T+48 T+0 – T+12 Surface Temperature T+0 – T+48 (UK only) T+0 – T+12/24 (NAE/UK) Upper-Air Temperature Upper-Air Wind Speed PMSL 6hrly Acc. Precipitation Focus for EURO4M: ‘Regional Reanalysis – Why Bother?’ © Crown Copyright 2012. Source: Met Office Global/Regional Reanalysis Configurations ERA-Interim • • • • T255* (80km), 60 levels T159 (125km) 4D-Var 12-hour analysis window Assimilate: • conventional obs • satellite radiances * Note ERA-Clim up to T511 (~40km) EURO4M • • • • 12km, 70 levels 12-36km 4D-Var 6-hour analysis window assimilate: • • • • • conventional obs incl visibility satellite radiances Ground-based GPS Cloud Precipitation • Initial state and boundary conditions from ERA-Interim/ Clim analyses © Crown Copyright 2012. Source: Met Office First attempt at reanalysis... • Floods in Poland, May 2010 eastern Europe • Severe storms June 2010 France/Spain • Russian heatwave July 2010 spreading West, forest fires © Crown Copyright 2012. Source: Met Office ERA-Interim Russian heatwave, July 2010 e-obs 12km EURO4M Tmax 10-07-10 © Crown Copyright 2012. Source: Met Office Verification vs Radiosonde European Temperature rms error: May-July 2010 T+0 T+6 ERA-Interim EURO4M 12km © Crown Copyright 2012. Source: Met Office GA3: See Renshaw talk Developments for 2012/13 • • • • • • Variational bias correction ODB – obs monitoring. ECMWF collaboration. Extend observations dataset Cloud and Precipitation assimilation Validation – extreme statistics Collaborate on cross-validation • ‘Pre-Production’ Reanalysis: 2010 – 2011 period • Impact of 4D-Var assimilation resolution (12-36km) © Crown Copyright 2012. Source: Met Office Dynamical downscaling and reanalysis over Europe (WP2.2 – 2.3) 3D-Var Re-analysis at 22 km, 60Levels over Europe (SMHI) Downscaling Dx ~ 5 km over Europe Courtesy of T. Landelius (SMHI) More observations 2D analysis at Dx ~5 km By adding details with topography and more observations, the quality of the analysis should improve … ~ 4000 obs (1200 over France) © Crown Copyright 2012. Source: Met Office WP2.3 2D reanalysis (SMHI) HIRLAM 22 km © Crown Copyright 2012. Source: Met Office Downscaled to 5 km MESAN t2m analysis (observations as black dots) WP2.3 observations for 2D reanalysis (SMHI) In total some 10,000 unique stations. This is still far from all observations available in the national archives! GA3: See Unden, Landelius talks © Crown Copyright 2012. Source: Met Office WP2.3 Ongoing work # # Validation of the analyses • • Against observations (particularly for T2m, Rh2m, 24-h cumulated precipitation) Assessment of the snow depth and the river flow by using a surface scheme and a hydrological module forced with reanalyses surface variables. Improvement of the downscaling method: • • Problem of the vertical interpolation over the mountainous areas especially for the temperature ; usage of a lake climatology to improve the lake surface temperature. # Development of precipitation analysis, the usage of Tmin and Tmax for reanalysis # Technical issues: • • • # To create a reanalysis domain (~5km scale) over Europe that best fit SMHI domain (at 22 km scale), i.e. changing the geometry from rotated lat-lon to Lambert conformal); Converting GRIB files from SMHI to specific format type Usage of additional observations not available in GTS. Specific treatment for the wind with a dynamical adaptation or by DFI ? GA3: See Soci talk © Crown Copyright 2012. Source: Met Office WP2.5 Improved Input Data (UEA) Overall Process GA3: See Jones talk © Crown Copyright 2012. Source: Met Office WP2.4 Evaluation (MeteoSwiss) • Formally begins April 2012. • MeteoSwiss: precipitation variations in Alpine regions. • Met Office: Reanalysis sensitivity to resolution, technique. Observation impact. • SMHI: compare MetO/HIRLAM reanalyses. • MeteoFrance: Evaluate MESAN/SAFRAN. • DWD: verify WV, cloud, precip, radiation with CM-SAF Investigate satellite radiance calibration. Using existing datasets, reanalyses, and datasets developed in WP1 © Crown Copyright 2012. Source: Met Office WP2.4 Evaluation (MeteoSwiss) 20 km grid 5 km grid Precipitation at meso-scale in complex topography (Alpine region) Consistency between obs. datasets (spatial pattern, annual cycle) for precip extremes? High-resolution regional reanalyses vs. global reanalysis? Representation of interannual to decadal variations by regional reanalyses? © Crown Copyright 2012. Source: Met Office GA3: See Frei discussion EURO4M WP2 Deliverables/Milestones Year 1 Year 2 Now Year 3 Year 4 • Deliverables on track. • Year 1-2, largely preparation (much technical work). • Year 3-4 ‘pre-production’ runs plus evaluation (enhanced collaboration). © Crown Copyright 2012. Source: Met Office Questions/Discussion? © Crown Copyright 2012. Source: Met Office