Definition of Internal Capital Requirement – on group and subsidiary level Andreas Green January 27, 2011 Agenda 2 Internal Capital Requirement – Definition – Group vs. subsidiary level Stress tests – Purpose – Methodology – Group vs. subsidiary level Internal Capital Requirement 3 Definition of the internal capital requirement (ICR) ICR Additional Capital Constraints Economic Capital, exc NLP 2 3 4 1 Pillar 1 risks Adj P1 credit risk Credit Risk Pillar 2 risks Market Risk Add'l Capital Internal Capital Buffer Requirement Operational Risk Large Exposures Core Tier 1 capital Transition Rules Financial Actual Capital Conglomerate Base Tier 1 Hybrid A key component of the ICR is the stress buffer 4 Tier 2 capital Group vs. subsidiary level Nordea’s policy has so far been to not include stress test buffers in the definition of Internal Capital Requirement on subsidiary level – The rationale has been to maximize capital transferability within the Group – The capital adequacy has thus been assessed based on a comparison of the actual capital and the ICR excluding stress test buffers This position has been challenged during the financial crisis and will be further challenged due to the crisis management framework being developed 5 Stress tests 6 The role of stress testing Stress testing is primarily a component of capital forecasting and requires a holistic perspective on risks Capital requirements during economic cycle Economic Cycle – Does the bank have enough capital Available capital (Tier 1/ capital base) given a serious economic downturn? Given the process of stressing capital requirements, the bank is forced to consider mitigating actions – How can the bank maintain capital targets and/or requirements in periods of stress? – Where might the bank consider reducing exposures? Reducing growth? – Where will the bank find additional 7 capital in periods of economic stress? Capital surplus Required capital (Regulatory/ Internal) Stress test methodology Capital Requirements Financial Statements Financial statements – stressed income statements and balance sheets Probability of default – stressed to reflect increases in defaults. Growth – stressed growth rates are applied to P&L and lending. Collateral coverage – stressed by moving exposures from secured to unsecured. Loan losses – derived using a historical regression analysis applied to scenarios. Funding costs – increase in the cost of long- and short-term funding Exemplified by Credit risk Rating migration – all customers are migrated according to scenarios. 8 GDP Credit Risk Unemployment Market Risk Inflation Other Risks Stock prices Income Property prices Expenses Interest rates Loan losses Capital Requirements Capital Ratios Capital Base Group vs. subsidiary level On group level Nordea defines the (ICR) stress test buffer based on the ambition to not fall below a certain threshold – Should the definition be consistent across entities? – Should the severity of the stress scenarios be the same on subsidiary level as on group level? – The stress test methodology needs in general to be adapted to Basel III and the group vs. subsidiary level issue will be impacted by the crisis management framework A requirement to maintain stress test buffers on subsidiary level will most likely mean that the sum of the stress test buffers on subsidiary level exceeds the buffer on group level 9