Australian Economic Outlook
Real GDP forecasts
6
Per cent
Per cent
Projections
Forecasts
5
6
5
20-year average
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
1997-98
2001-02
Source: ABS cat. no. 5204.0 and Treasury.
2005-06
2009-10
2013-14
2017-18
2
Revisions to IMF growth forecasts
4.75
Per cent
Per cent
Pre-GFC average
4.25
4.75
4.25
4.1
2015
2014
3.75
3.4
3.25
2.75
Apr-10
Oct-10
Apr-11
Oct-11
Note: Evolution of IMF forecasts for world growth (calendar year).
Source: IMF WEO.
Apr-12
Oct-12
3.8
3.3
Apr-13
Oct-13
Apr-14
3.3
3.75
3.25
2.75
Oct-14
3
China and MTP growth contributions
8
Percentage points
Percentage points
8
Ex-China contribution
to MTP growth
4
4
0
0
China's contribution
to MTP growth
-4
-4
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
Note: MTP growth aggregated using Australia’s export shares.
Source: ABS cat. no. 5368.0, IMF October 2014 World Economic Outlook and Treasury.
2007
2009
2011
2013
4
Mining investment
Per cent of GDP
Per cent of GDP
Projections
Forecasts
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
1967-68
1977-78
Source: ABS cat. no. 5204.0, 5206.0 and Treasury.
1987-88
1997-98
2007-08
0
2017-18
5
Iron ore
220
Mt
Export volumes
Mt
220
170
Spot price$US/tonne (fob)
$US/tonne (fob)
Forecasts
Forecasts
200
200
170
150
150
180
180
Outcomes
since
Budget
160
130
130
Budget
160
110
140
140
90
120
120
70
Budget
110
90
70
Current
spot price
100
100
Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16
Note: Commercial-in-confidence
Source: ABS cat. no. 5302.0, Platts and Treasury.
50
Jun-11
Jun-12
Jun-13
Jun-14
Jun-15
50
Jun-16
6
Terms of trade
110
Index (2011-12 = 100)
Index (2011-12 = 100)
110
Forecast
100
100
90
90
80
80
70
70
60
60
50
50
40
Jun-96
Jun-98
Jun-00
Source: ABS cat. no. 5206.0 and Treasury.
Jun-02
Jun-04
Jun-06
Jun-08
Jun-10
Jun-12
Jun-14
40
Jun-16
7
Contributions to real GDP growth
4
Percentage points
Percentage points
Projections
Forecasts
GDP growth
3
2
4
3
2
Non-resources
1
1
Resources
0
0
Resources
-1
-1
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
Net resources investment
Note: Assumes that mining investment has an import share of 50 per cent.
Source: ABS cat. no. 5204.0 and 5302.0, BREE and Treasury.
2015-16
2016-17
Resources exports
2017-18
8
Housing market indicators
Housing finance
210
Index (Sep-04=100)
Index (Sep-04=100)
190
Building approvals
210 12
'000
'000
190
Owner-occupier
finance
Houses
9.1
9
9
170
170
150
150 6
130
130
6
5.7
3
110
12
Units
3
110
Investor finance
90
90
Sep-04 Sep-06 Sep-08 Sep-10 Sep-12 Sep-14
Source: ABS cat. no. 8731.0 and 5609.0.
0
Sep-04
Sep-06
Sep-08
Sep-10
Sep-12
0
Sep-14
9
Retail trade and consumer confidence
Retail trade
2
Per cent
Confidence measures
Per cent
8 140
Through the year
(RHS)
130
Index
Index
ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer
Confidence
140
130
5.7
1.2
1
120
120
110
110
100
100
90
90
80
80
4
0
0
Monthly (LHS)
Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer
Sentiment Index
-1
Sep-12
Mar-13
Sep-13
Mar-14
70
-4 70
Nov-04 Nov-06 Nov-08 Nov-10 Nov-12 Nov-14
Sep-14
Source: ABS 8501.0, Westpac-Melbourne Institute and ANZ-Roy Morgan.
10
Non-mining investment indicators
Conditions and confidence
20
Net balance
Net balance
CAPEX
20
140
$billion
$billion
140
Business
Confidence
120
10
10
120
Upper and lower
average errors
100
0
-10
Business
Conditions
-20
-30
Oct-06
Previous
estimate
0
-10
100
80
80
60
60
40
40
20
20
0
0
-20
Oct-08
Oct-10
Oct-12
-30
Oct-14
Note: Non-mining business conditions and confidence reflects the weights of
non-mining sectors in the NAB survey. This is not necessarily the same as
non-mining sectors share of GVA. Source: NAB Monthly Business Survey.
2006-07 2008-09 2010-11 2012-13 2014-15
Note: Estimates of CAPEX have been adjusted using long run
realisation ratios.
Source: ABS cat. no. 5625.0
11
Labour market
67
Per cent
Per cent
Participation rate (LHS)
66
7
5.0
6.2
4.5
Per cent, tty
Per cent, tty
5.0
4.5
6
Wage Price Index
65
5
4.0
4.0
3.5
3.5
3.0
3.0
2.5
2.5
64.6
Unemployment rate
(RHS)
64
63
Oct-04
4
Oct-06
Oct-08
Source: ABS cat. no. 6202.0 and 6345.0.
Oct-10
Oct-12
3
Oct-14
2.0
2.0
Sep-04 Sep-06 Sep-08 Sep-10 Sep-12 Sep-14
12
Exchange rate
0.95
AUD/USD
TWI
75
US dollar (LHS)
0.93
73
0.91
71
Trade-weighted index (RHS)
0.89
69
0.87
67
0.85
Jan-14
65
Source: RBA
Feb-14 Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
13
Short term visitor arrivals
120
'000
'000
120
New Zealand
100
100
80
80
China
60
60
UK
40
40
USA
Japan
20
0
Sep-94
Note :Trend data
Source: ABS Cat. no. 3401.0
Sep-99
Sep-04
Sep-09
20
0
Sep-14
14
Estimated size of middle class by region
3.5
Billions (persons)
North America
Billions (persons)
Europe
Asia Pacific
Central and South America
Africa and Middle East
3.0
3.5
3.0
China
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.0
India
1.5
1.5
Other Asia Pacific
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
2009
2020
2030
Source: 'Kharas, H. and Gertz, G. (2010) The New Global Middle Class: A Cross-Over from West to East and Centennial Group
projections (2011)
15
Other slides
World outbound tourism
(Resident departures by country of origin)
100 Millions
Millions 100
80
80
USA
60
60
UK
40
40
China
Japan
20
20
India
0
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
Note: Figures for China include travel to Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan.
Source: United Nations World Tourism Organisation
2005
2007
2009
2011
0
2013
17
Projections of the global
middle class by region
3.5
Billions (persons)
North America
Billions (persons)
Europe
Asia Pacific
Central and South America
3.5
Africa and Middle East
3.0
3.0
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
2009
2020
2030
Source: Kharas, H and Gertz G, 2010, ‘The New Global Middle Class: A Cross-Over from West to East’ in C Li (ed), China’s Emerging
Middle Class: Beyond Economic Transformation, Washington, DC, Brookings Institution Press.
18
Top five merchandise exports to China
2006
2013
Other
20%
Iron ores &
concentrates
37%
Other
29%
Iron ores &
concentrates
56%
Copper
2%
Confidential
items of trade
4%
Other ores &
concentrates
4%
Copper ores&
concentrates
6%
Wool & other
animal hair
(incl tops) 7%
Source: DFAT.
Gold
8%
Confidential
items of trade
17%
Coal
10%
19
Resource investment – major projects
80
$billion
$billion
80
70
70
60
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
0
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
LNG
2013-14
2014-15
Iron ore and coal
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
Other
Note: Treasury’s major resources projects profile is the sum of spending on existing and planned resources projects greater than $2 billion,
weighted by their probability of going ahead.
Source: Treasury.
20
Nominal GDP forecasts
10
Per cent
Per cent
Projections
Forecasts
8
10
8
20-year average
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
1997-98
2001-02
Source: ABS cat. no. 5204.0 and Treasury.
2005-06
2009-10
2013-14
2017-18
21
Market inflation expectations
4
Per cent
Per cent
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-3
Nov 09
US
Nov 10
Eurozone
Nov 11
Japan
Australia
Nov 12
Note: Market inflation expectations are derived from inflation swaps. Expectations are not available for China.
Source: Bloomberg
Nov 13
-2
-3
Nov 14
22
Inflation
5 Per cent
Per cent 5
8
Per cent, tty
Per cent, tty
8
Through the year
4
4
6
6
Non-tradables
3
3
4
4
2.3
2
2
2
2.4
2
2.0
1
1
0
0
0.5
0
0
Tradables
-2
-2
Quarterly
-1
Sep-04
Sep-06
Sep-08
Source: ABS. cat. no. 6401.0.
Sep-10
Sep-12
-1 -4
Sep-14 Sep-04
Sep-06
Sep-08
Sep-10
Sep-12
-4
Sep-14
23
National income growth
200
Index (June 1984=100)
Index (June 1984=100)
180
200
180
160
160
Since
peak in
terms of
trade
Real GDP per capita
140
140
Real GNI per capita
120
100
Jun-1984
Source: ABS Cat. No. 5206.0.
120
Jun-1990
Jun-1996
Jun-2002
Jun-2008
100
Jun-2014
24
Housing market indicators
Prices growth
25
Per cent, tty
Capital cities
Per cent, tty
25
25
Per cent, tty
Per cent, tty
25
Melbourne
20
20
20
20
15
15
15
10
10
10
5
5
5
5
0
0
0
0
-5
-5
-5
-5
Australia
15
-10
Oct-04
Oct-06
Source: RP Data CoreLogic.
Oct-08
Oct-10
Oct-12
-10 -10
Oct-14
Oct-04
Sydney
Other capital
cities
Oct-06
Oct-08
Oct-10
Oct-12
10
-10
Oct-14
25
Wages by industry
1.15
Ratio (Sep-04=1.0)
Ratio (Sep-04=1.0)
1.10
1.15
1.10
Mining
1.05
1.05
Construction
Professional, scientific &
technical
1.00
Health care and social assistance
1.00
Manufacturing
Retail Trade
0.95
0.95
Accomodation & food services
0.90
Sep-99
Sep-02
Source: ABS Cat. no. 6345.0 and Treasury.
Sep-05
Sep-08
Sep-11
0.90
Sep-14
26
Wages growth by mining/non-mining
7
Per cent, tty
Per cent, tty
6
7
6
Mining
5
5
4
4
3
3
Total ex. Mining
2
1
Sep-99
2
Sep-02
Source: ABS cat. no. 6345.0 and Treasury.
Sep-05
Sep-08
Sep-11
1
Sep-14
27