The Super Tuesday Outbreak of 56 February, 2008
Hypothesis
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Upper-level trough in the Plains
Shortwave passing through
Low-level jet from Gulf of Mexico
Moisture advection from south
Strong, veering winds
Neutral layer near surface
Conceptual Model
Not Quite Type B...
Mesoscale Factors (0000 UTC)
Nashville Sounding (0000 UTC)
Trigger 1: The Low-Level Jet
1800
UTC
(1200
LST)
2100
UTC
(1500
LST)
Trigger 2: Shortwave
0000
UTC
(1800
LST)
The Supercell
Type B Legacy: Nighttime Tornadoes
LST
5:02 PM
6:25 PM
6:42 PM
7:30 PM
7:40 PM
7:44 PM
10:10 PM
1:45 AM
1:45 AM
3:20 AM
5:20 AM
UTC
2302
0025
0042
0130
0140
0144
0410
0745
0745
0920
1120
ATKINS
5 SW DANCYVILLE
6 NNW MERCER
MORRIS CHAPEL
4 NW SAVANNAH
1 W GREENVILLE
5 W HARTSVILLE
9 SSE SCOTTSVILLE
7 SSE SCOTTSVILLE
6 SE MOULTON
PISGAH
POPE
FAYETTE
MADISON
HARDIN
HARDIN
MUHLENBERG
TROUSDALE
MACON
ALLEN
LAWRENCE
JACKSON
AR
TN
TN
TN
TN
KY
TN
TN
KY
AL
AL
3524
3537
3556
3532
3526
3721
3639
3663
3666
3442
3468
9295
8936
8905
8835
8829
8720
8625
8613
8615
8721
8585
*** 3 FATAL ***
*** 1 FATAL ***
*** 2 FATAL ***
*** 2 FATAL, 5 INJ ***
*** 3 FATAL, 5 INJ ***
*** 3 FATAL ***
*** 2 FATAL ***
*** 4 FATAL ***
*** 4 FATAL ***
*** 3 FATAL ***
*** 1 FATAL ***
References
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Martin, Jonathan E. Mid-Latitude Cyclone Dynamics: A First Course. Wiley Publishing, 2006.
Blanchard, D. O., 1998: Assessing the vertical distribution of convective available potential energy. Wea.
Forecasting, 13, 870–877.
Miller, R.C., 1972: Notes on Analysis and Severe-Storm Forecasting Procedures of the Air Force Global
Weather Central. Air Weather Service, 1-23.
Monette, S. A. The Parkersburg, IA EF-5 Tornado: Destruction Amidst the Rain. 2009. Department of
Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Wisconsin-Madison.
Hayes, J. L. Super Tuesday Tornado Outbreak - Executive Summary. 2008. National Weather Service.
National Weather Service-Memphis, 2008. February 5, 2008 Storm Damage Survey.
<http://www.srh.noaa.gov/meg/?n=feb52008tornadooutbreak>.
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SPC Severe Event Index
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Lecture 11 Powerpoint