THE ABCS OF LAUNCHING A NEW CREDIT CARD PROGRAM AUGUST 2012 Timothy Kolk tkolk@trkadvisors.com • (603) 924 - 4438 Why Are We Talking? • Credit card program and product design • Portfolio performance analysis and improvement • New (or reentering) issuer programs • Credit card program advisory services • Agent program development • Credit Card Management School (w/Callahan & Assoc.) • Expert testimony • Affinity & cobrand program development Market Knowledge; Best In Class Practices TRK ADVISORS 2 Contents for Today • Market Overview: Why Now? • How Can We Win? • Getting Serious: Steps & Time Required • Performance Benchmarks & Reporting • Getting Started TRK ADVISORS 3 PART 1 Market Overview TRK ADVISORS 4 Credit Card Market Size The Credit Card Market Total Card Assets (Billions) $1,200 $1,000 $800 $600 Small Issuers control about 5% of this market. $400 OPPORTUNITY $200 $0 '00 TRK Advisors '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 Total Revolving Balances '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 Credit Union Cards $800 billion is a really big number. TRK ADVISORS 5 Market Share Growth Change In Card $: Banks v. CUs Change in Balances 60% 55% 50% 40% 30% 22% 20% 11% 10% 3% 0% 2001-2005 TRK Advisors 2005-2011 Bank Growth CU Growth Not bad! TRK ADVISORS 6 Credit Card Market Pricing Average APR: CARD Act & Market Impacts 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% This is for all existing cards. New card average rates are about 15% CARD Act + Economy = More Expensive Credit 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2006 2007 Avg Rates 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Amount Over Prime TRK Advisors TRK ADVISORS CEOs want Yield. Here it is. 7 Credit Card Market Risk Bank v. CU Charge-Offs 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% Net Credit Losses Qtr CUs All 11,Q1 3.6% 7.0% 11,Q2 3.2% 5.6% 11,Q3 2.8% 5.6% 11,Q4 2.8% 4.5% 12,Q1 2.6% 4.4% 500+bp 5.0% 4.0% <200bp 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 Credit Union Charge-Offs '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 Bank Charge-offs TRK Advisors TRK ADVISORS Clearly things are getting better 8 Things Are Normal Again? • Card Act is behind us (but with us forever) • The economy is improving (if fragile) • Credit risk is under control • The market wants to grow again • It’s a huge market • Most credit unions have ‘cash to burn’ • Loans are in short supply TRK ADVISORS New programs start with a clean slate. 9 PART 2 How can we succeed? TRK ADVISORS 10 st 1 : Big Bank Advantages • Financial/Structural – – – – – Lower operating costs Higher balances per account Dedicated card marketing budgets More sophisticated analysis: e.g. Profit scoring Geographic diversity • Information/Relationship – Stronger data mining capabilities – Real time behavior monitoring – Ever improving risk analytics TRK ADVISORS 11 How Do You Compete? • Use Your Significant Advantages: – Financial advantages: liquidity, lower return hurdles, lower cost of funds, credit loss levels, cost per new account – Relationship advantages: proprietary internal data, multi-product viewpoints, behavior signals – Market perceptions: big banks are resented and distrusted more than ever – No home runs here, but when carefully brought into a product strategy they can add up to real value for your members TRK ADVISORS 12 Using Your Advantages • How to translate these into action? • Member value: – – – – Lower APR? Reward program structure? Lower fees? Propositions with a purpose! • Knowledge advantages: – Membership depth – Other products/expense leverage • Better access & response: lower cost TRK ADVISORS 13 A Word About Rewards • Debit rewards are tough, but Durbin does open an opportunity • Relationship rewards are a stronger strategy: tie in and incent everything • Large institutions cannot do this • But need more than travel/merchandise blah, blah, blah approach • If you want to get fancy: Leverage in-market merchant relationships (or build some) TRK ADVISORS 14 PART 3 Getting Serious: Steps to Decision TRK ADVISORS 15 Functional Areas Impacted • • • • • • • Underwriting Finance Technology Compliance Servicing Branch Systems Call Center • • • • • • • Lending ALCO Collections Legal Marketing Accounting HR/Training Big meetings with many participants are awful. Big meetings with many participants are necessary. TRK ADVISORS Segmenting Card Prospects All Consumers High Risk Declines 50%? Low Risk Credit Users (Revolvers) Convenience Users (Transactors) 30%? Is card one product? TRK ADVISORS 20%? Product Set? • “Credit Card” is a different tool for different people. • As the simplest level, it points toward a two product set structure: Rewards v Low-Rate • Risk-based pricing within products, not across products • CARD Act makes it very important to continuously monitor and manage the book of accounts (different from most other loans) • ‘Starter’ or ‘Rebuilder’ products are nice too, but understand that cards with balances under $1000 are NEVER profitable for credit unions TRK ADVISORS 18 A Word About “Fixed” Rates • Actually required to call them ‘non-variable’ • CARD Act dramatically increased the risk to the issuer • You cannot reprice existing balances, but variable rates are safer • If the rate environment changes you have to decide when to raise card rates (100 bp? 200 bp? 300 bp?) • When you do you have to disclose and allow 45 day notice. Real lead time is maybe 4-6 months. • If rates come up more then you do it again…and maybe again… and maybe again “Fixed” rate cards can provide a marketing advantage, but beware of what happens later. TRK ADVISORS 19 Target the Value Proposition Use Existing Data to Develop Product Value Target Population Have Card Too risky (for now) You must proactively sell the card. No credit worthy person needs to ask for a credit card. TRK ADVISORS No Card Possible Target Transactor Reward or Related Value Propositions Credit User Provide and prove best rate value Target The Value Proposition Once You Have A Portfolio Total Portfolio Inactive Newly Understand your card holders. Know when they change Active Long-Term Revolver New(ish) Established Transactor New(ish) Established The best managed portfolios have different propositions and messages for each segment TRK ADVISORS Marketing/Analysis/Design The Virtuous Circle Product Redesign Design Learnings No Functional Silos! Takes Real Leadership Formal Review Marketing Programs Results Analysis Marketing discipline + program intelligence = Growth, Profits, Long Term Value TRK ADVISORS 22 Timeframe: 6 months or more • Build Business Case – Use actual data with real tactical planning – Educate Board and Management – Get resource commitment and prioritization • Processor Evaluation – – – – Be careful: Control the conversation (negotiation) Their incentives are not perfectly aligned to yours DO NOT use their forecasts. Make them use yours. Evaluate more than cost: go forward resources! • Program Design – Card Types & Pricing – Association Choices and Negotiations TRK ADVISORS Timeframe (continued) • Marketing Gets Ready – Member segmentation/analytics – Develop sales materials tied to product design – Develop 12 month rollout calendar (by channel) • Existing Agent Relationship Is Severed – Make sure you understand termination windows – Understand marketing opportunities/limits – Rebrand decisions/portfolio buyback possibilities • Policies & Procedures Get Completed – Underwriting, Collections, …everything – Compliance closely involved TRK ADVISORS Timeframe (continued) • Internal Controls & Integration – – – – Develop scorecards and management reporting Define responsibilities and ‘ownership’ Integrate card information into MIF/Data warehouse Get Compliance up to speed (serious!) • Build Internal Skills – Leverage processor and other relationships – Card Manager needs to be either found or built – Commit to education and development • Prepare Organization – Staff-wide preparation and education (advocates!) – Launch with a bang! TRK ADVISORS The Biggest Mistake We See: A Messy Vendor Selection Process Sloppy work up front causes pain later! (Five+ years of pain followed by a conversion) TRK ADVISORS 26 PART 4 Benchmarks & Critical Lessons TRK ADVISORS 27 Fact Based Expectations Member Penetration Rates 10.0% 8.8% 8.1% (27) 4.7% 5.0% 2.5% (12) 6.7% 7.5% 2.1% (38) (46) Credit Union Average = 18% (50) 0.0% YR 1 TRK Advisors YR 2 YR 3 YR 4 YR 5 Card as % of Total Assets 2.5% 2.1% We’ve seen actual business cases assuming things like: 10% penetration in year 1 2.1% Card as 5% of B/S in 2 years 1.8% 2.0% 1.4% 1.5% 1.0% We have identified 50 credit unions that started new programs. These are their ‘vintage’ results. Or no plan! Credit Union Average = 5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% YR 1 TRK Advisors TRK ADVISORS YR 2 YR 3 YR 4 YR 5 This is a blocking & tackling business, not an easy one. Fact Based Expectations Delinquency Rates 2.5% 2.1% 2.0% 1.7% Growth masks risk levels 1.6% 1.5% 1.1% 1.0% Credit Risk is Sneaky! Card risk follows a pattern 0.8% Credit Union Average = 1.2% 0.5% New accounts riskier than old 0.0% YR 1 TRK Advisors YR 2 YR 3 YR 4 YR 5 Gross Credit Loss Rates 3.7% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% Credit Union Average = 2.5% 2.9% Risk Management discipline needed at underwriting and ongoing forever for credit card. 2.5% 1.7% 2.0% 1.3% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% YR 1 TRK Advisors TRK ADVISORS YR 2 Underwriting tools, resources and requirements are more sophisticated than they used to be. YR 3 YR 4 YR 5 While Profit Isn’t Everything. New Card Program Returns Return on Card Assets 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% Year 1 includes start-up expenses -8.0% -10.0% Yr 1 TRK Advisors TRK ADVISORS Yr 2 Annual ROA Yr 3 Yr 4 Life of Program ROA … It Isn’t Nothing Either Yr 5 Build Scorecards Now! • Overall Trends and Ratios (monthly and yr-yr) – Balance and spend patterns – Accounts (in various categories) – Delinquency and charge-offs • A Real P&L – ROA and Net Income: All line items – NOT APR, NOT YIELD, NOT NLM: Full P&L – Expenses are the trickiest and least interesting to figure out • Marketing Program Results and Returns – New Accounts: Cost to obtain & activate, expected payback, etc- By Source – Portfolio Marketing: Activation results, Balance build, Spending incentives…know what you achieved – Be honest about costs: Prove it’s worth it TRK ADVISORS 31 Which Way Will It Go? The Good The Bad & Ugly American Airlines FCU Eastern Financial Relaunched 2004 Relaunched 2001 Now at $120+ Million (2% of assets) Reached $45 million by year 4 (almost 3% of assets) 21,000 accounts (14% penetration) Reached 16,000+ accounts (8% penetration) Average Balance almost $4,000 Credit losses exceeded 10% in Yr 4 Credit Losses 2.2% in 2011 DQ about 1% of balances They had other problems, but they failed and this did not help There are no guarantees. TRK ADVISORS 32 PART 5 Closing TRK ADVISORS 33 Be Realistic • Safest/Transactor segments are being bombarded • Balancing rate-to-risk is more difficult than before • Reward programs getting richer/fancier/smarter • Integrating member data in portfolio management is difficult, but must be done • Marketing $ are needed every year • No guarantees on economy This isn’t the business you had before TRK ADVISORS 34 Be Serious • Prepare for up to a year to launch • Gather information from as many sources as you can. Invest some time (and maybe some $) • Build your own business case in great detail • Decide who ‘owns’ it • Establish definitions of success before launch • Track against those. Address variances fast • Accept that the macro world is changing and be ready to (re)make your decisions as you proceed TRK ADVISORS 35 TRK ADVISORS QUESTIONS? 36 THANK YOU Timothy Kolk tkolk@trkadvisors.com • (603) 924 - 4438 You may want to consider: Credit Card Management School (Callahan & Associates at www.creditunions.com) Email me, link on our web site or Google “CCMS TRK” 37