Texas – A Majority/Minority State:
Social and Economic Implications
by
Cruz C. Torres
Professor Emeritus
Dept. of RPTS
Texas A&M University
May 25, 2011
2011 Texas SDC/BIDC Annual Meeting, Austin, TX
Demographic Trends Affecting the Future

Change in Rates and Sources of
Population Growth
–

Increase in the Non-Anglo
Population
–

migration
fertility
Aging of the Population
–
death
Projected Rates of Natural Increase for
US by Population Groups: 2010-2050
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division (NP2008-t9)
Projected Rates for Components of US International
Migration by Ethnicity: 2010-2050
Texas Population Change
Texas Population Change by
Race/Ethnicity: 2000-2010
Race/
Ethnicity
2000
Census
Population
2010
Census
Population
Numerical
Change
20002010
NH White
11,074,716
11,397,345
322,629
2.9
53.1
45.3
NH Black
2,421,653
2,886,825
465,172
19.2
11.6
11.5
Hispanic
6,669,666
9,460,921
2,791,255
41.8
32.0
37.6
NH Asian
685,785
1,400,470
714,685
104.2
3.3
5.6
20,851,820
25,145,561
4,293,741
20.6
100.0
100.0
Total
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2000 and 2010 Census Counts
Percent
Change
2000/
2010
Percent of Population
2000
2010
Population Change by Components of
Change in the State, 1990-2000 and 2000-2009
State of Texas
1990- 2000
Numerical Change
3,865, 485
Natur al Incr ease
49.7
Domestic Migr at ion
30.2
International Migr at ion
20.1
2000- 2009
Numerical Change
Natur al Incr ease
3,930, 484
54.04
Domestic Migr at ion
21.6
International Migr at ion
23.8
Texas Counties with 50 Percent or More of Their Total Population That is Anglo
in 2000 and Projected for 2040 Under Alternative Projection Scenarios
2000
2040
(1.0 Scenario)
2040
2040
(0.5 Scenario)
(2000-2004 Scenario)
Percent Anglo Population
Less Than 50% Anglo Population
50% or Greater Anglo Population
Source: 2006 Population Projections, Texas State Data Center,
Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic Research,
The University of Texas at San Antonio
Projected Proportion of Population by
Race/Ethnicity in Texas, 2000-2040*
Percent
70.0
59.2
60.0
53.2
53.1
50.0
46.5
45.1
39.3
40.0
37.3
32.0
30.3
30.0
23.9
20.0
11.6
11.1
10.3
9.2
10.0
4.5
3.3
7.3
5.9
8.0
0.0
2000
2010
2020
Anglo
Black
Hispanic
2030
2040
Other
*Using U.S. Census count for 2000 and Texas State Data Center 1.0 population projection scenario for 2010-2040.
8.9
Projected Percent of Net Change Attributable to Each
Race/Ethnicity Group in Texas for 2000-2040*
Black
5.3%
Hispanic
78.2%
Anglo
3.9%
Other
12.6%
* Using U.S. Census count for 2000 and Texas State Data Center 1.0 population projection scenario for 2040.
Ethnic Diversity of the Population, Householders,
and Labor Force in Texas, 2000 and 2040*
53.1%
58.4%
61.4%
3.0%
3.3%
11.6%
11.4%
32.0%
2000 Population
10.7%
24.2%
2000 Householders
7.9%
9.0%
24.2%
27.5%
2000 Civilian Labor Force
7.9%
29.0%
8.8%
59.1%
3.4%
25.2%
8.2%
9.2%
58.7%
52.8%
2040 Civilian Labor Force
2040 Householders
2040 Population
Anglo
* Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario
Black
Hispanic
Other
Major Changes in Population:
Age Composition
Population Pyramids for Anglo and Hispanic
Ethnic Groups in Texas, 2000
Hispanic
Anglo
Age
100 + years
95 to 99 years
90 to 94 years
85 to 89 years
80 to 84 years
75 to 79 years
70 to 74 years
65 to 69 years
60 to 64 years
55 to 59 years
50 to 54 years
45 to 49 years
40 to 44 years
35 to 39 years
30 to 34 years
25 to 29 years
20 to 24 years
15 to 19 years
10 to 14 years
5 to 9 years
< 5 years
5
,
00
00
0
4
,
00
00
0
3
,
00
00
0
2
,
00
00
0
1
,
00
Male
00
0
0
1
,
00
00
0
2
,
00
00
0
3
,
00
Female
00
0
4
,
00
00
0
5
,
00
00
0
50
0
0,
00
40
0
0,
00
30
0
0,
00
20
0
0,
00
10
0
0,
Male
00
0
10
0
0,
00
20
0
0,
00
30
0
0,
Female
00
40
0
0,
00
50
0
0,
00
Percent of Texas Population by Age Group
and Ethnicity, 2000
Percent
80.0
72.6
66.4
67.1
63.5
60.2
60.0
57.2
53.0
47.8
44.0
40.0
39.5
45.0
45.0
41.641.3
38.0
38.4
43.1
40.5
44.4
38.6
35.3
30.5
26.7
20.0
24.2
22.4
20.6
20.3
16.7
0.0
s
s
s
s
s
s
s
s
s
s
s
s
s
s
ar
ar
ar
ar
ar
ar
ar
ar
ar
ar
ar
ar
ar
ar
e
e
e
e
e
e
e
e
e
e
e
e
e
e
y
y
y
y
y
y
y
y
y
y
y
y
y
y
5
9
4
9
4
9
4
9
4
9
4
9
4
+
1
1
2
2
3
3
4
4
5
5
6
<
to
65
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
Anglo
Hispanic
Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Population
Less than 18 Years of Age by Race/Ethnicity for Texas, 2000 and 2010
Percent of
Population
Change
Race/Ethnicity*
NH Whites (Anglo)
Hispanic (All Races)
NH Black
NH Asian
2000
2,507,147
2,386,765
732,807
139,226
2010
2,322,661
3,317,777
810,543
231,458
Numeric
-184,486
931,012
77,736
92,232
NH "Other" Races
NH Two or More Races
State of Texas
28,962
91,852
5,886,759
36,513
146,872
6,865,824
7,551
55,020
979,065
Percent
-7.36
39.01
10.61
66.25
33.05
59.90
16.63
2000
42.59
40.54
12.45
2.37
2010
33.83
48.32
11.81
3.37
0.49
1.56
100.00
0.53
2.14
100.00
Source: U.S. Census 2010, P.L. 94-171
* “Other Race” is comprised of Native American and Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander, and “Some Other Race” as per the
Census 2000 and Census 2010. Hispanic includes persons of all races. All other race/ethnicity categories shown here are non-Hispanic (e.g., nonHispanic White, non-Hispanic Black, etc.)
Percent of Texas Population by Age Group
and Ethnicity, 2040*
80.0
70.0
Percent
69.9
67.8
66.5
65.5
66.0
66.8
66.4
64.3
62.6
60.6
60.0
56.7
55.2
52.3
50.0
39.8
37.1
40.0
30.0
20.0
25.3
17.7
19.3
19.9
20.3
19.8
19.3
19.4
20.5
20.6
26.5
27.2
21.9
10.0
0.0
rs
rs
rs
rs
rs
rs
rs
rs
rs
rs
rs
rs
rs
rs
a
a
a
a
a
a
a
a
a
a
a
a
a
a
ye
ye
ye
ye
ye
ye
ye
ye
ye
ye
ye
ye
ye
ye
5
9
4
9
4
9
4
9
4
9
4
9
4
+
1
1
2
2
3
3
4
4
5
5
6
<
to
65
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
t
t
t
t
t
t
t
t
t
t
t
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
Anglo
* Proj ections are shown for the 1.0 scenario
Hispanic
Percent of Persons 65 Years of Age and Older in Texas Counties, 2000
Percent 65 Years Old and Older
< 11.9 (n=66)
12.0 - 14.9 (n=70)
15.0 - 19.9 (n=80)
20.0 or more (n=38)
Source: Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic Research,
The University of Texas at San Antonio. Census 2000 Summary File 1.
Percent of Persons 65 Years of Age and Older in Texas Counties, 2040*
Percent 65 Years Old and Older
< 11.9 (n=2)
12.0 - 14.9 (n=19)
15.0 - 19.9 (n=79)
20.0 or more (n=154)
* Assuming rates of migration equal to 2000-2004
Source: Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic Research,
The University of Texas at San Antonio. Texas Population Estimates
and Projections Program, 2006 Projections.
Percent Change from 2000 to 2040 in Selected Age
Groups in the Texas Population Under the 1.0
Percent Change
Scenario
350.0
295.5
300.0
250.0
200.0
150.0
112.0
100.0
88.3
50.0
0.0
<18 years
18 to 24 years
65+ years
Education
Educational Attainment for the Texas
Population Age 25 and Older
by Race/Ethnicity, 2009
Race
Ethnicity
Non-Hispanic White
Black
Hispanic*
Asian
Total
________
Population Less than
High
Age 25 and
high
school
Older
school
diploma
8,026,049
8.3
25.3
1,705,709
15.0
30.4
4,876,517
42.5
25.2
580,159
14.2
15.4
15,361,557
20.1
25.4
Source: U.S. Census, American Community Survey, 2009.
*Includes Hispanic persons of all races.
Some
college or
associates Bachelor
degree
or more
32.5
33.9
36.5
18.1
21.4
10.9
17.2
53.2
28.9
25.5
Percent of Persons 25 Years of Age or Older by Level of Educational
Attainment and Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projected to 2040*
Assuming 1990-2000 Trends in Educational Attainment Rates
Anglo
< Hig h Sch o o l
12.7
2.2
25.7
Hig h Sch o o l
16.6
31.6
33.4
30.0
So me Co ll/Asso c
Bach elo r's +
47.8
Black
< Hig h Sch o o l
24.0
4.3
29.9
Hig h Sch o o l
25.6
30.6
So me Co ll/Asso c.
40.5
15.5
Bach elo r's +
29.6
Hispanic
50.7
< Hig h Sch o o l
32.1
22.0
25.8
18.4
24.1
Hig h Sch o o l
So me Co ll/Asso c
8.9
Bach elo r's +
18.0
Other
21.0
< Hig h Sch o o l
Hig h Sch o o l
13.4
16.1
7.6
20.6
So me Co ll/Asso c
11.0
42.3
Bach elo r's +
68.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
Percen t
2000
*Pro jectio n s are sh o w n fo r th e 1.0 scen ario
2040
60.0
70.0
80.0
Ethnic Diversity of the Population Enrolled in Elementary
and Secondary Schools in Texas, 2000 and 2040
Ethnic Diversity of the Population Enrolled in
Colleges and Universities in Texas, 2000 and 2040
Future Demands for Specific Programs
76.2% Elementary and Secondary Enrollment Growth
Bilingual/ESL
186.8%
Economically
Disadvantaged
119.9%
Gifted and
Talented
48.5%
Immigrants
183%
Limited English
Proficiency (LEP)
Special Education
188.1%
64.7%
Title 1
Career and Technology
Education
0%
101.9%
69.9%
50%
100%
2000-2040 Percent Change
Source: The New Texas Challenge: Population Change and the Future of Texas
150%
200%
Socioeconomic Conditions
Median Household Income in 1999 in
Texas by Age of Householder
Thousands
$60
$50
$40
$30
$20
$10
$0
<25
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
Age of Householder
65-74
75+
Total and Percent of the Texas Population in Poverty and
Median Household Income by Race/Ethnicity, 1999 and 2009
1999
2009
%
Median
Household
Income*
826,459
7.8
$60,839
1,010,170
9.0
$59,836
1,658,434
25.4
$38,536
2,364,407
26.4
$35,628
Black
525,082
23.4
$37,803
630,479
23.1
$35,438
Asian
65,048
11.9
$64,576
105,186
12.1
$63,692
Other
42,586
13.9
NA
40,000
11.9
NA
3,117,609
15.4
$51,506
4,150,242
17.2
$50,043
Population
in Poverty
Anglo
Hispanic
Total
Population
in Poverty
%
Median
Household
Income
*In 2009 Dollars
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 and American Community Survey, 2009
Average Household Income
in Texas, 2000-2040*
(in 2000 Dollars)
$60,000
$54,441
$52,639
$50,903
$49,326
$50,000
$47,883
$40,000
$30,000
2000
2010
* Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario
2020
2030
2040
Texas Latino Labor Force

U.S. Latino wages better than Texas Latino
wages
–

Texas Latino wages
–

71% of NH white wages
64% of NH white wages
If current labor force trends continue by 2040
HH income will be $6,000 less than in 2000
Projected Percent of Households in Poverty by
Family Type in Texas, 2000 and 2040
Percent in Poverty
35.0
30.0
26.7
30.0
25.0
18.9
20.0
15.0
18.9
17.0
15.4
16.6
15.0
14.4
11.8
11.4
7.5
10.0
5.0
0.0
Family
Households
Married
Couple
Male
Householder
2000
* Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario
Female
Householder
2040
Nonfamily
Households
Total
Households
State Tax Revenues in Texas Proportioned by Race/Ethnicity in
2000 and Projections to 2040* Assuming 2000 Decile Tax Rates
Ethnic Diversity of Household Income and Consumer
Expenditures in Texas, 2000 and 2040*
66.4%
71.2%
3.0%
3.3%
17.3%
8.7%
8.2%
2000 Aggregate
Household Income
21.9%
2000 Consumer
Expenditures
38.2%
31.9%
7.1%
7.4%
9.3%
11.6%
51.7%
42.8%
2040 Consumer
Expenditures
2040 Aggregate
Household Income
Anglo
* Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario
Black
Hispanic
Other
Group Disparities


Texas’ ethnic group wages lower than Texas
NH white wages
Texas native born Hispanics’ wages higher
than immigrant wages in Texas
What does all this mean ?
Pain
or
Gain
Generation Gap: Two Pronged Issue
 The
–
 The
–
Old
Non-Hispanic white populations
diminishing
Young
Hispanic populations rapidly expanding
Consequences of Aging Population

Greater proportion of population in retirement
–
–
–

Fixed income; dwindling resources
Increase in single head of households
Older more established households- less
consumer needs
Greater demand for services
–
Baby Boomer Syndrome
Consequences of Aging Population

Increase in health care needs
–

Age = chronicity
Increase need for service providers
–
–
–
Smaller family units – less available help
Greater geographic mobility less proximity to
family care providers
Greater proportion of elders will be childless
Consequences of Increase in
Minority Populations

Labor Workforce
–
–

Younger workforce
Less experience
Less educated workforce
–
–
Lower skilled occupations = Lower wages
Reduced occupation related benefits

–
–
Especially health care benefits
Reduced consumerism
Increased government costs
Minority Populations Consequences
 Higher
–
–
–
–
–
fertility rates
95% of child growth in past decade=Hispanic
50.2% of public school children in Texas /Hispanic
Larger size households
Greater demand for single family housing
Greater demands on services


health
education
Summary Market Consequences

Reduced tax revenues
–
Increased proportion of taxpayers in retirement

–
Increased proportion of taxpayers non-Anglo


–
–
Only 38% of revenues will from non-Hispanic whites
Younger less experienced
Lower levels of formal education
Increased proportion of taxpayers in Service
occupations = lower wages
Less disposable income for needs
Implications of Low English
Proficiency & Education Attainment

High levels of underemployment
–
–



High levels of unemployment
Low-skilled occupations
Low-wage occupations
–
–

Part-time
Seasonal
Low/no benefits
Low/no security
High sensitivity to economic downturns
–
Last hired – first fired
Advantages of Population Shifts

Greater demand for services
 The gray/aging population
 English-speaking service providers
 Housing
 The brown/younger population
 Bilingual service providers
 Education
 Affordable housing
 Younger households – more needs
High Fertility Good for Economy
 More
–
people
More demand for goods & services
 Pumps
–
up Social Security
Young workers support aging population
Investing in the future

Hispanics can stimulate business
–

Pump-up weak housing markets
–


US Latino buying power $870 billion in 2008
61% of US Latino net worth invested in
homeownership
Replenish an aging labor force
Revitalize dying communities
–
Look at what it has done for the Catholic Church
The 64 Million $ Question

Is Texas willing to educate this population
the way it educated the populations in the
past?
Latino Family Portrait
--- mi casa es su casa!
Phone
956-765-5427
e-mail ctorres@ag.tamu.edu