Population Change in Texas:
Implications for Human and Socioeconomic
Resources in the 21st Century
by
Steve H. Murdock
Institute for Demographic and
Socioeconomic Research
The University of Texas at San Antonio
Major Demographic Trends
Affecting the Future
• Change in Rates and Sources of
Population Growth
• Increase in the Non-Anglo Population
• Aging of the Population
Total Population Change
Total Population and Percent Population Change
in Texas and the United States, 1850-2005
Total Population
Year*
1850
1860
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2005
*
Texas
212,592
604,215
818,579
1,591,749
2,235,527
3,048,710
3,896,542
4,663,228
5,824,715
6,414,824
7,711,194
9,579,677
11,196,730
14,229,191
16,986,510
20,851,820
22,859,968
U.S.
23,191,876
31,443,321
39,818,449
50,155,783
62,947,714
75,994,575
91,972,266
105,710,620
122,775,046
131,669,275
150,697,361
179,323,175
203,302,031
226,545,805
248,709,873
281,421,906
296,410,404
Percent Change
Texas
U.S.
--184.2
35.5
94.5
40.4
36.4
27.8
19.7
24.9
10.1
20.2
24.2
16.9
27.1
19.4
22.8
9.6
--35.6
26.6
26.0
25.5
20.7
21.0
14.9
16.1
7.2
14.5
19.0
13.4
11.4
9.8
13.2
5.3
All values for the decennial dates are for the indicated census year.
Values for 2005 are as estimated by the U.S. Bureau of the Census.
Source: Derived from U.S. Bureau of the Census Estimates for dates
indicated by the Texas State Data Center, University of Texas
at San Antonio
Total Population and Components of Population
Change in Texas, 1950-2005
Percent Change
Due to
Year*
Population
Numerical
Change
1950
7,711,194
—
—
—
—
—
—
1960
9,579,677
1,868,483
1,754,652
113,831
24.23
93.91
6.09
1970
11,196,730
1,617,053
1,402,683
214,370
16.88
86.74
13.26
1980
14,229,191
3,032,461
1,260,794
1,771,667
27.08
41.58
58.42
1990
16,986,510
2,757,319
1,815,670
941,649
19.38
65.85
34.15
2000
20,851,820
3,865,310
1,919,281
1,946,029
22.76
49.65
50.35
2005
22,859,968
2,008,148
1,155,182
852,966
9.63
57.52
42.48
*
Natural
Increase
Net
Migration
Percent
Change
Natural
Net
Increase Migration
All values for the decennial dates are for the indicated census year. Value for 2005 is for July
1 as estimated by the U.S. Bureau of the Census.
Source: Derived from U.S. Bureau of the Census Estimates for dates indicated by the Texas
State Data Center, University of Texas at San Antonio.
Ten Fastest Growing States in Numerical Terms
in the United States, 1990-2000
Percent
Population
Change
1990-2000
1990
Population*
2000
Population*
Numerical
Change
1990-2000
California
29,760,021
33,871,648
4,111,627
13.8
Texas
16,986,510
20,851,820
3,865,310
22.8
Florida
12,937,926
15,982,378
3,044,452
23.5
Georgia
6,478,216
8,186,453
1,708,237
26.4
Arizona
3,665,228
5,130,632
1,465,404
40.0
North Carolina
6,628,637
8,049,313
1,420,676
21.4
Washington
4,866,692
5,894,121
1,027,429
21.1
Colorado
3,294,394
4,301,261
1,006,867
30.6
Illinois
11,430,602
12,419,293
988,691
8.6
New York
17,990,455
18,976,457
986,002
5.5
State
*
Population values are decennial census counts for April 1 of the year
indicated
Ten Fastest Growing States in Numerical Terms
in the United States, 2000-2005
State
2000
Population*
2005
Population*
Numerical Percent
Change
Change
2000-2005 2000-2005
California
33,871,648
36,132,147
2,260,499
6.7
Texas
20,851,820
22,859,968
2,008,148
9.6
Florida
15,982,378
17,789,864
1,807,486
11.3
Georgia
8,186,453
9,072,576
886,123
10.8
Arizona
5,130,632
5,939,292
808,660
15.8
North Carolina
8,049,313
8,683,242
633,929
7.9
Virginia
7,078,515
7,567,465
488,950
6.9
Nevada
1,998,257
2,414,807
416,550
20.8
Washington
5,894,121
6,287,759
393,638
6.7
Colorado
4,301,261
4,665,177
363,916
8.5
*
Population values are decennial census counts for April 1 for 2000 and
estimates for July 1 for 2005.
Source: Derived from U.S. Bureau of the Census Estimates for dates
indicated by the Texas State Data Center, University of Texas at
San Antonio
Ten Fastest Growing States in Percentage Terms
in the United States, 1990-2000
Numerical
Change
1990-2000
Percent
Population
Change
1990-2000
1990
Population*
2000
Population*
Nevada
1,201,833
1,998,257
796,424
66.3
Arizona
3,665,228
5,130,632
1,465,404
40.0
Colorado
3,294,394
4,301,261
1,006,867
30.6
Utah
1,722,850
2,233,169
510,319
29.6
Idaho
1,006,749
1,293,953
287,204
28.5
Georgia
6,478,216
8,186,453
1,708,237
26.4
Florida
12,937,926
15,982,378
3,044,452
23.5
Texas
16,986,510
20,851,820
3,865,310
22.8
North Carolina
6,628,637
8,049,313
1,420,676
21.4
Washington
4,866,692
5,894,121
1,027,429
21.1
State
*
Population values are decennial census counts for April 1 of the year
indicated
Ten Fastest Growing States in Percentage Terms
in the United States, 2000-2005
Numerical
Change
2000-2005
Percent
Population
Change
2000-2005
2000
Population*
2005
Population*
Nevada
1,998,257
2,414,807
416,550
20.8
Arizona
5,130,632
5,939,292
808,660
15.8
Florida
15,982,378
17,789,864
1,807,486
11.3
Georgia
8,186,453
9,072,576
886,123
10.8
Utah
2,233,169
2,469,585
236,416
10.6
Idaho
1,293,953
1,429,096
135,143
10.4
Texas
20,851,820
22,859,968
2,008,148
9.6
Colorado
4,301,261
4,665,177
363,916
8.5
North Carolina
8,049,313
8,683,242
633,929
7.9
783,600
843,524
59,924
7.6
State
Delaware
*
Population values are decennial census counts for April 1 for 2000 and
estimates for July 1 for 2005.
Source:
Derived from U.S. Bureau of the Census Estimates for dates
indicated by the Texas State Data Center, University of Texas at
San Antonio
Ten Largest States in United States by Population
Size in 2000 Ranked by Population Size in 2000
State
1990
Population*
2000
Population*
Numerical
Change
1990-2000
California
29,760,021
33,871,648
4,111,627
13.8
Texas
16,986,510
20,851,820
3,865,310
22.8
New York
17,990,455
18,976,457
986,002
5.5
Florida
12,937,926
15,982,378
3,044,452
23.5
Illinois
11,430,602
12,419,293
988,691
8.6
Pennsylvania
11,881,643
12,281,054
399,411
3.4
Ohio
10,847,115
11,353,140
506,025
4.7
Michigan
9,295,297
9,938,444
643,147
6.9
New Jersey
7,730,188
8,414,350
684,162
8.9
Georgia
6,478,216
8,186,453
1,708,237
26.4
*
Percent
Change
1990-2000
Population values are decennial census counts for April 1 of the year
indicated
Ten Largest States in United States by Population
Size in 2000 Ranked by Population Size in 2005
State
2000
Population*
2005
Population*
Numerical
Change
2000-2005
California
33,871,648
36,132,147
2,260,499
6.7
Texas
20,851,820
22,859,968
2,008,148
9.6
New York
18,976,457
19,254,630
278,173
1.5
Florida
15,982,378
17,789,864
1,807,486
11.3
Illinois
12,419,293
12,763,371
344,078
2.8
Pennsylvania
12,281,054
12,429,616
148,562
1.2
Ohio
11,353,140
11,464,042
110,902
1.0
Michigan
9,938,444
10,120,860
182,416
1.8
Georgia
8,186,453
9,072,576
886,123
10.8
New Jersey
8,414,350
8,717,925
303,575
3.6
*
Percent
Change
2000-2005
Population values are decennial census counts for April 1 for 2000 and
estimates for July 1 for 2005.
Source:
Derived from U.S. Bureau of the Census Estimates for dates
indicated by the Texas State Data Center, University of Texas at
San Antonio
Numerical Population Change by Components of
Change in the United States and Selected States,
1990-2000 and 2000-2005
United
States
Arkansas
Louisiana
New
Mexico
32,630,981
17,081,253
322,776
93,014
247,150
286,697
303,977
153,800
305,078
150,386
3,865,485
1,922,044
0
218,560
-67,157
108,782
123,423
1,166,570
15,549,728
11,202
27,610
41,395
31,269
776,871
14,988,498
105,754
54,652
109,338
97,230
2,008,148
Natural Increase
8,651,861
52,214
129,889
74,397
80,753
1,155,182
Domestic Migration
International Migration
2,696
6,333,941
31,593
21,947
-95,411
20,174
6,967
27,974
-20,069
36,546
189,805
663,161
Oklahoma
Texas
1990-2000
Numerical Change
Natural Increase
Domestic Migration
International Migration
2000-2005
Numerical Change
Percent of Population Change by Components of Change in the
United States and Selected States, 1990-2000 and 2000-2005
United
States
Louisiana
New
Mexico
Arkansas
Oklahoma
Texas
32,630,981
52.3
322,776
28.8
247,150
116.0
303,977
50.6
305,078
49.3
3,865,485
49.7
0.0
67.7
-27.2
35.8
40.5
30.2
47.7
3.5
11.2
13.6
10.2
20.1
14,988,498
105,754
54,652
109,338
97,230
2,008,148
Percent Natural Increase
57.7
49.3
237.7
68.0
83.0
57.5
Percent Domestic Migration
Percent International Migration
0.0
42.3
29.9
20.8
-174.6
36.9
6.4
25.6
-20.6
37.6
9.5
33.0
1990-2000
Numerical Change
Percent Natural Increase
Percent Domestic Migration
Percent International Migration
2000-2005
Numerical Change
Population Change by Components of Change in the San Antonio Metropolitan
Area Compared to the State and Selected Areas, 1990-2000 and 2000-2004
State of
Texas
San Antonio
Metropolitan
Area
Dallas Ft WorthArlington
Metropolitan
Area Area
Houston –
Baytown Sugarland
Metropolitan Area
3,865,485
303,958
1,172,250
948,174
403,536
Natural Increase
1,922,044
150,894
505,595
500,630
112,314
Domestic Migration
1,166,570
111,518
472,931
210,530
260,833
776,871
41,546
193,724
237,014
30,389
1,638,202
142,347
538,712
465,036
162,508
Natural Increase
930,519
70,302
267,470
238,579
66,852
Domestic Migration
149,679
49,934
74,881
49,000
55,700
International Migration
558,004
22,111
196,361
177,457
39,956
Austin Round Rock
Metropolitan
Area
1990-2000
Numerical Change
International Migration
2000-2004
Numerical Change
Population Change by Components of Change in the San Antonio Metropolitan
Area Compared to the State and Selected Areas, 1990-2000 and 2000-2004
Houston –
Baytown Sugarland
Metropolitan Area
State of
Texas
San Antonio
Metropolitan
Area
Dallas Ft Worth
Metropolitan
Area
Austin Round Rock
Metropolitan
Area
3,865,485
303,958
1,172,250
948,174
403,536
Percent Natural Increase
49.7
49.6
43.2
52.8
27.9
Percent Domestic Migration
30.2
36.7
40.3
22.2
64.6
Percent International Migration
20.1
13.7
16.5
25.0
7.5
1,638,202
142,347
538,712
465,036
162,508
56.58
49.4
49.6
51.3
41.1
9.1
35.1
13.9
10.5
34.3
34.1
15.5
36.5
38.2
24.6
1990-2000
Numerical Change
2000-2004
Numerical Change
Percent Natural Increase
Percent Domestic Migration
Percent International Migration
Population Change in Texas Counties, 1990-2000
Source: Texas State Data Center
Percent Change 2000-2003
< 0.0% (n=68)
0.0 - 9.9% (n=61)
10.0 - 21.9% (n=66)
22.0 - 86.2% (n=59)
Population Change in Texas Counties, 2000-2003
Source: Texas State Data Center
Percent Change 2000-2003
< 0.0% (n=98)
0.0 - 1.9% (n=50)
2.0 - 5.4% (n=53)
5.5 - 28.2% (n=53)
Population Change in Texas Counties, 2000-2004
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2004 County Estimates
Percent C hange 2000-2004
< 0.0% (n=103)
0.0 - 1.9% (n=39)
2.0 - 5.4% (n=51)
5.5 - 35.2% (n=61)
Racial/Ethnic Change in Texas
Texas Rank Among States on Selected
Characteristics of Race/Ethnicity Groups
Group
Texas
Value
Texas
Rank
Comparison
Areas
By Size in 2000
Anglo
11,074,716
3
California; 17.0 million
New York; 12.5 million
Black
2,421,653
2
New York; 2.9 million
Hispanic
6,669,666
2
California; 11.0 million
685,785
4
California; 4.2 million
New York; 1.2 million
Hawaii; 733,000
Other
Texas Rank Among States on Selected
Characteristics of Race/Ethnicity Groups
Group
Texas
Value
Texas
Rank
Comparison
Areas
By Numerical Change, 1990-2000
Anglo
783,036
2
Florida; 1.1 million
Black
445,293
3
Florida; 665,000
Georgia; 627,000
2,329,761
2
California; 3.3 million
307,220
3
California; 1.2 million
New York; 493,000
Hispanic
Other
Anglo Population For States in the United
States in 1990 and 2000 Ranked by Total
Population Size in 2000
State
1990
Anglo
Population
2000
Anglo
Population
Numerical
Change
1990-2000
California
Texas
New York
Florida
Illinois
Pennsylvania
Ohio
Michigan
New Jersey
Georgia
17,029,126
10,291,680
12,460,189
9,475,326
8,550,208
10,422,058
9,444,622
7,649,951
5,718,966
4,543,425
16,393,491
11,074,716
11,921,371
10,568,868
8,514,486
10,373,049
9,604,550
7,906,629
5,625,346
5,170,762
-635,635
783,036
-538,818
1,093,542
-35,722
-49,009
159,928
256,678
-93,620
627,337
Percent
Change
1990-2000
-3.73
7.61
-4.32
11.54
-0.42
-0.47
1.69
3.36
-1.64
13.81
Texas Rank Among States on Selected
Characteristics of Race/Ethnicity Groups
Group
Texas
Value
Texas
Rank
Comparison
Areas
By Percent of Total Population in 2000
Anglo
53.1
47
Ahead of Hawaii; 30.1
Ahead of New Mexico; 45.7
Ahead of California; 48.4
Black
11.6
18
Highest is Mississippi; 36.4
Lowest is Montana; 0.4
Hispanic
32.0
3
3.3
22
Other
New Mexico; 42.1
California; 32.4
Highest is Hawaii; 60.5
Lowest is West Virginia; 0.9
Numerical Change in Population by Race/Ethnicity
in Texas for 1980-1990 and 1990-2000
2,500,000
2,329,761
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
1,354,081
941,383
783,036
445,293
500,000
307,220
283,818
178,037
0
Anglo
Black
1980-1990
Hispanic
1990-2000
Other
Percent Change in Population by Race/Ethnicity for
1980-1990 and 1990-2000 in Texas
100
Percent Change
88.78
81.15
80
60
53.68
45.35
40
22.53
16.77
20
10.07
7.61
0
1980-1990
1990-2000
Anglo
Black
Hispanic
Other
Proportion of Net Population Change
Attributable to Each Race/Ethnicity Group in
Texas for 1980-1990 and 1990-2000
70
60.27
60
49.11
50
40
34.14
30
20.26
20
11.52
10.29
10
7.95
6.46
0
1980-1990
1990-2000
Anglo
Black
Hispanic
Other
Population Change by Race/Ethnicity in Texas, 2000-2004
Race/
Ethnicity
2000
Census
Population
2004
Estimated
Population
Numerical
Change
20002004
Percent
Change
20002004
Percent of
Population
2000
2004
Anglo
11,074,716
11,222,394
147,678
1.3
53.1
49.9
Black
2,421,653
2,567,841
146,188
6.0
11.6
11.4
Hispanic
6,669,666
7,848,698
1,179,032
17.7
32.0
34.9
Other
685,785
851,089
165,304
24.1
3.3
3.8
Total
20,851,820
22,490,022
1,638,202
7.9
100.0
100.0
Source: Texas State Data Center, Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic
Research, University of Texas at San Antonio.
Major Changes in Population Composition
(Characteristics)
• Age
Median Age in the United States and
Texas, 1900-2000
40
Median Age
35.3
32.9
30.1
29
30
25.3
24.1
22.9
26.8
26.5
30
29.5
27.9
27
28.1
32.3
30.8
28
26.4
23.7
22
20.2
20
18.7
10
0
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
United States
1960
Texas
1970
1980
1990
2000
Percent Change in Population by Age Group
in the United States and Texas, 1990-2000
Percent Change
70
60.3
60
49.4
50
40
30
20
24
21.7
20.7
16.3
13.7
15.3
14.8
12
5.3
10
1.5
0
<18
18-24
25-44
45-54
Age Groups
United States
Texas
55-64
65+
Percent
Percent of Texas Population by Age Group
and Ethnicity, 2000
80.0
72.6
66.4
67.1
63.5
60.2
60.0
57.2
53.0
47.8
44.0
40.0
39.5
45.0
45.0
41.641.3
38.0
38.4
43.1
40.5
44.4
38.6
35.3
30.5
26.7
20.0
24.2
22.4
20.6
20.3
16.7
0.0
s
s
s
s
s
s
s
s
s
s
s
s
s
s
ar
ar
ar
ar
ar
ar
ar
ar
ar
ar
ar
ar
ar
ar
e
e
e
e
e
e
e
e
e
e
e
e
e
e
y
y
y
y
y
y
y
y
y
y
y
y
y
y
5
9
4
9
4
9
4
9
4
9
4
9
4
+
1
1
2
2
3
3
4
4
5
5
6
<
to
65
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
Anglo
Hispanic
Percent of Texas Population by Age Group
and Ethnicity, 2040*
80.0
70.0
Percent
69.9
67.8
66.5
65.5
66.0
66.8
66.4
64.3
62.6
60.6
60.0
56.7
55.2
52.3
50.0
39.8
37.1
40.0
30.0
20.0
25.3
17.7
19.3
19.9
20.3
19.8
19.3
19.4
20.5
20.6
26.5
27.2
21.9
10.0
0.0
rs
rs
rs
rs
rs
rs
rs
rs
rs
rs
rs
rs
rs
rs
a
a
a
a
a
a
a
a
a
a
a
a
a
a
ye
ye
ye
ye
ye
ye
ye
ye
ye
ye
ye
ye
ye
ye
5
9
4
9
4
9
4
9
4
9
4
9
4
+
1
1
2
2
3
3
4
4
5
5
6
<
to
65
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
t
t
t
t
t
t
t
t
t
t
t
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
Anglo
* Proj ections are shown for the 1.0 scenario
Hispanic
PROJECTIONS
Population in Texas by Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projections
of the Population in Texas by Race/Ethnicity from 2010 to 2040
Year
Anglo
2000
11,074,716
Black
2,421,653
Hispanic
Other
6,669,666
685,785
Total
20,851,820
Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration
2010
2020
2030
2040
11,331,893
11,381,151
11,171,425
10,733,074
2,627,284
2,771,391
2,823,276
2,796,626
8,060,578
9,336,524
10,576,281
11,662,262
783,204
841,641
878,111
893,139
22,802,959
24,330,707
25,449,093
26,085,101
Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
11,533,980
11,796,479
11,789,292
11,525,083
2,754,737
3,052,412
3,268,611
3,403,176
9,080,466
11,882,993
15,140,088
18,804,297
961,460
1,273,908
1,632,588
2,028,603
24,330,643
28,005,792
31,830,579
35,761,159
Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
11,740,016
12,227,555
12,442,104
12,376,303
2,888,449
3,361,702
3,783,657
4,140,670
10,252,219
15,226,371
21,871,382
30,604,621
1,177,909
1,921,057
3,020,447
4,585,895
26,058,593
32,736,685
41,117,590
51,707,489
Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 2000-2002
2010
2020
2030
2040
11,587,971
11,908,234
11,960,333
11,749,690
2,826,849
3,217,037
3,539,340
3,786,341
9,877,268
14,090,715
19,449,030
26,153,290
1,117,442
1,726,191
2,569,996
3,698,715
25,409,530
30,942,177
37,518,699
45,388,036
Percent Change for Selected Time Periods for Projected
Population in Texas by Racial/Ethnic Status Under Alternative
Assumptions of Migration Scenarios
Year
Anglo
Black
Hispanic
Other
Total
Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration
2000-2010
2010-2020
2020-2030
2030-2040
2000-2040
2.3
0.4
-1.8
-3.9
-3.1
8.5
5.5
1.9
-0.9
15.5
20.9
15.8
13.3
10.3
74.9
14.2
7.5
4.3
1.7
30.2
9.4
6.7
4.6
2.5
25.1
Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000
2000-2010
2010-2020
2020-2030
2030-2040
2000-2040
4.1
2.3
-0.1
-2.2
4.1
13.8
10.8
7.1
4.1
40.5
36.1
30.9
27.4
24.2
181.9
40.2
32.5
28.2
24.3
195.8
16.7
15.1
13.7
12.3
71.5
Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000
2000-2010
2010-2020
2020-2030
2030-2040
2000-2040
6.0
4.2
1.8
-0.5
11.8
19.3
16.4
12.6
9.4
71.0
53.7
48.5
43.6
39.9
358.9
71.8
63.1
57.2
51.8
568.7
25.0
25.6
25.6
25.8
148.0
Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 2000-2002
2000-2010
2010-2020
2020-2030
2030-2040
2000-2040
4.6
2.8
0.4
-1.8
6.1
16.7
13.8
10.0
7.0
56.4
48.1
42.7
38.0
34.5
292.1
62.9
54.5
48.9
43.9
439.3
21.9
21.8
21.3
21.0
117.7
Percent of Population in Texas by Race/Ethnicity in 2000
and Projections of the Percent of the Population in Texas
by Race/Ethnicity from 2010 to 2040
Year
Anglo
Black
Hispanic
2000
53.1
11.6
32.0
Other
3.3
Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration
2010
2020
2030
2040
49.8
46.7
43.8
41.2
11.5
11.4
11.1
10.7
35.3
38.4
41.6
44.7
3.4
3.5
3.5
3.4
Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
47.4
42.2
37.0
32.2
11.3
10.9
10.3
9.5
37.3
42.4
47.6
52.6
4.0
4.5
5.1
5.7
Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
45.1
37.3
30.3
23.9
11.1
10.3
9.2
8.0
39.3
46.5
53.2
59.2
4.5
5.9
7.3
8.9
Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 2000-2002
2010
2020
2030
2040
45.6
38.5
32.0
26.0
11.1
10.4
9.4
8.3
38.9
45.5
51.8
57.6
4.4
5.6
6.8
8.1
Projected Proportion of Population by
Race/Ethnicity in Texas, 2000-2040*
Percent
70.0
59.2
60.0
53.2
53.1
50.0
46.5
45.1
39.3
40.0
37.3
32.0
30.3
30.0
23.9
20.0
11.6
11.1
10.3
9.2
10.0
4.5
3.3
7.3
5.9
8.0
0.0
2000
2010
2020
Anglo
Black
Hispanic
2030
2040
Other
*Using U.S. Census count for 2000 and Texas State Data Center 1.0 population projection scenario for 2010-2040.
8.9
Percent of the Projections of the Population by
Race/Ethnicity and Age Groups in Texas from 2000-2040
Under Alternative Migration Scenarios
Age
Group
Anglo
Black
Hispanic
Other
Total
26.1
11.2
37.7
20.1
4.9
28.2
10.6
31.1
20.2
9.9
All Scenarios
2000
<18
18-24
25-44
45-64
65+
23.0
8.8
30.1
24.4
13.7
31.7
11.2
32.1
17.7
7.3
35.8
13.2
31.8
14.0
5.2
Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration
2020
<18
18-24
25-44
45-64
65+
20.1
8.2
24.7
27.4
19.6
24.8
10.2
29.3
25.0
10.7
32.0
11.1
26.9
21.5
8.5
21.2
9.1
24.0
29.9
15.8
25.2
9.6
26.1
24.9
14.2
2040
<18
18-24
25-44
45-64
65+
17.4
7.6
24.1
24.9
26.0
19.9
8.8
27.6
26.5
17.2
27.5
10.0
27.1
20.6
14.8
16.8
6.5
23.7
22.1
30.9
22.2
8.7
25.9
23.0
20.2
(Continued)
Projected Percent of Net Change Attributable to Each
Race/Ethnicity Group for 2000-2040*
Black
5.6%
Hispanic
77.6%
Anglo
4.2%
Other
12.6%
*Using U.S. Census count for 2000 and Texas State Data Center 1.0 population projection scenario for 2040.
Percent Change from 2000 to 2040 in Selected Age
Groups in the Texas Population Under the 1.0
Percent Change
Scenario
350.0
295.5
300.0
250.0
200.0
150.0
112.0
100.0
88.3
50.0
0.0
<18 years
18 to 24 years
65+ years
POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS
AND SOCIOECONOMIC CONDITIONS
Median Household Income in 1999 in
Texas by Age of Householder
Thousands
$60
$50
$40
$30
$20
$10
$0
<25
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
Age of Householder
65-74
75+
Median Household Income In 1999 in
Texas by Race/Ethnicity of Householder
$60,000
$50,049
$47,162
$50,000
$40,000
$29,305
$29,873
$30,000
$20,000
$10,000
$0
Anglo
Black
Hispanic
Asian
Educational Attainment in 2000
in Texas for Persons 25+ Years
of Age By Race/Ethnicity
Percent
< High School
High School
Hispanic
Black
Anglo
Asian
Some College
College or More
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
States Ranked by Median Household
Income in 1999
New Jersey (1)
$55,146
Connecticut (2)
$53,935
Maryland (3)
$52,868
Alaska (4)
$51,571
Massachusetts (5)
$50,502
Hawaii (6)
$49,820
New Hampshire (7)
$49,467
California (8)
$47,493
Delaware (9)
$47,381
Colorado (10)
$47,203
Texas (30)
$39,927
United States
$41,994
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
States Ranked by Per Capita
Income in 1999
Connecticut (1)
$28,766
District of Columbia (2)
$28,659
New Jersey (3)
$27,006
Massachusetts (4)
$25,952
Maryland (5)
$25,614
Colorado (6)
$24,049
Virgina (7)
$23,975
New Hampshire (8)
$23,844
New York (9)
$23,389
Delaware (10)
$23,305
Texas (33)
$19,617
United States
$21,587
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
States Ranked by Percent High School Graduates +
in the Population 25 Years of Age or Older, 2000
Alaska(1)
88.3
Minnesota (3)
87.9
Wyoming (3)
87.9
Utah (4)
87.7
New Hampshire (5)
87.4
Montana (6)
87.2
Washington (7)
87.1
Colorado (8)
86.9
Nebraska (9)
86.6
Vermont (10)
86.4
Texas (45)
75.7
United States
80.4
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
Percent
80.0
100.0
States Ranked by Percent High School Graduates +
in the Population 25 Years of Age or Older, 2004
Minnesota (1)
92.3
Montana (2)
91.9
Wyoming (2)
91.9
Nebraska (4)
91.3
Utah (5)
91.0
New Hampshire (6)
90.8
Vermont (6)
90.8
Alaska (8)
90.2
Iowa (9)
89.8
Washington (10)
89.7
Texas ( 50)
78.3
United States
85.2
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
Percent
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Current Population Survey (CPS), 2004 Annual Social and Economic Supplement
100.0
States Ranked by Percent College Graduates +
in the Population 25 Years of Age or Older, 2000
District of Columbia (1)
39.1
Massachusetts (2)
33.2
Colorado (3)
32.7
Connecticut (5)
31.4
Maryland (5)
31.4
New Jersey (6)
29.8
Virginia (7)
29.5
Vermont (8)
29.4
New Hampshire (9)
28.7
Washington (10)
27.7
Texas (27)
23.2
United States
24.4
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
Percent
40.0
50.0
States Ranked by Percent College Graduates +
in the Population 25 Years of Age or Older, 2004
Massachusetts (1)
36.7
Colorado (2)
35.5
New Hampshire (3)
35.4
Maryland (4)
35.2
New Jersey (5)
34.6
Connecticut (6)
34.5
Vermont (7)
34.2
Virginia (8)
33.1
Minnesota (9)
32.5
California (10)
31.7
Texas (35)
24.5
United States
27.7
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
Percent
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Current Population Survey (CPS), 2004 Annual Social and Economic Supplement
40.0
The Texas Challenge in the TwentyFirst Century: Implications of
Population Change for the
Future of Texas
The Institute
for Demographic
and
Socioeconomic
by
Steve H. Murdock
Research
The Institute for Demographic and
Socioeconomic Research
The University of Texas at San Antonio
EDUCATION
Educational Attainment Characteristics of the
Population in Texas by Race/Ethnicity, 1990-2000
Racial/
Ethnic
Group
Percent
High
School
Graduates
Percent
College
Graduates
1990
Anglo
Black
Hispanic
Total
81.5
66.2
44.6
72.1
25.2
12.0
7.3
20.3
2000
Anglo
Black
Hispanic
Total
87.2
75.8
49.3
75.7
30.0
15.3
8.9
23.2
Percent Change
Anglo
Black
Hispanic
Total
7.0
14.5
10.5
5.0
19.0
27.5
21.9
14.3
Public Community College and University
Enrollment Rates (Per 100 Persons Ages 18 to 35)
in Texas by Race/Ethnicity, 1990 and 2000
Year
Anglo
Black
Hispanic
Other
Total
Community College
1990
2000
6.3
6.5
4.1
5.2
4.4
4.8
5.6
6.8
5.5
5.7
10.0
10.3
6.0
5.7
Public University
1990
2000
7.4
7.5
4.0
4.7
3.5
3.3
Enrollment in Public Elementary and Secondary
Schools in Texas for all Scenarios, 2000-2040
8
Millions
7

7
6

6
5

5
4
4
4



4

4


5

4

5

5

4

4

3
2
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
Years
0.0 Scenario 
0.5 Scenario 
1.0 Scenario 
Census Count

Enrollment in Public Community Colleges and
Public Universities in Texas, 2000-2040*
1,000
Thousands
849

800
710

589
600

510
421
400

371



445
677

581

495

200
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
Years
Public Community Colleges 
Public Universities

* Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario
2040
Projected Percent of Public Elementary and Secondary Enrollment
by Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projections for 2040*
Percent
66.3
70.0
60.0
50.0
43.2
39.5
40.0
30.0
19.9
20.0
14.4
8.3
10.0
5.5
2.9
0.0
2000
2040
Projection Year
Anglo
Black
Hispanic
* Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario
Other
Projected Percent of Public Community College Enrollment
by Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projections for 2040*
Percent
70.0
60.0
56.0
54.7
50.0
40.0
29.5
30.0
25.7
20.0
11.1
8.1
10.0
4.7
0.0
2000
2040
Projection Year
Anglo
Black
Hispanic
* Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario
Other
10.2
Projected Percent of Public University Enrollment
by Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projections for 2040*
Percent
70.0
61.5
60.0
50.0
44.5
40.0
32.3
30.0
21.3
20.0
15.1
10.3
8.1
6.9
10.0
0.0
2000
2040
Projection Year
Anglo
Black
Hispanic
* Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario
Other
Future Demands for Specific Programs
76.2% Elementary and Secondary Enrollment Growth
Bilingual/ESL
186.8%
Economically
Disadvantaged
119.9%
Gifted and
Talented
48.5%
Immigrants
183%
Limited English
Proficiency (LEP)
Special Education
188.1%
64.7%
Title 1
Career and Technology
Education
0%
101.9%
69.9%
50%
100%
2000-2040 Percent Change
Source: The New Texas Challenge: Population Change and the Future of Texas
150%
200%
Percent Change in Public Community College Enrollment, Public University Enrollment,
Students with Financial Need Unmet by Household Resources, and State Financial
Assistance Expenditures for Public Higher Education in Texas, 2000-2040*
Percent Change
250.0
206.7
200.0
150.0
105.4
101.6
82.5
100.0
50.0
0.0
Public Community
College Enrollment
Public University
Enrollment
*Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario
Students with
Financial Need
Unmet
State Financial
Assistance
Expenditures
Ethnic Diversity of the Population, Householders,
and Labor Force in Texas, 2000 and 2040*
53.1%
58.4%
61.4%
3.0%
3.3%
11.6%
11.4%
32.0%
2000 Population
10.7%
24.2%
2000 Householders
7.9%
9.0%
24.2%
27.5%
2000 Civilian Labor Force
7.9%
29.0%
8.8%
59.1%
3.4%
25.2%
8.2%
9.2%
58.7%
52.8%
2040 Civilian Labor Force
2040 Householders
2040 Population
Anglo
* Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario
Black
Hispanic
Other
Ethnic Diversity of the Population Enrolled in
Elementary and Secondary Schools and
Colleges in Texas, 2000 and 2040*
43.2%
58.0%
14.4%
2.9%
5.7%
10.7%
39.5%
2000 Public Elementary
and Secondary
25.6%
2000 Public Colleges
and Universities
8.3%
8.1%
19.9%
28.7%
5.5%
12.3%
66.3%
50.9%
2040 Public Colleges
and Universities
2040 Public Elementary
and Secondary
Anglo
* Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario
Black
Hispanic
Other
Ethnic Diversity of Household Income and
Consumer Expenditures in Texas, 2000 and 2040*
66.4%
71.2%
3.0%
3.3%
17.3%
8.7%
8.2%
2000 Aggregate
Household Income
21.9%
2000 Consumer
Expenditures
38.2%
31.9%
7.1%
7.4%
9.3%
11.6%
51.7%
42.8%
2040 Consumer
Expenditures
2040 Aggregate
Household Income
Anglo
* Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario
Black
Hispanic
Other
State Tax Revenues in Texas Proportioned by Race/Ethnicity in
2000 and Projections to 2040* Assuming 2000 Decile Tax Rates
3.3%
17.3%
8.2%
71.2%
2000
Tax Revenues
11.6%
42.8%
38.2%
7.4%
2040* Proje cte d
Tax Re v e nue s
Anglo
Black
Hispanic
*Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario
Other
Projected Percent of Labor Force by Educational
Attainment in Texas, 2000 and 2040
Percent
35
30.1
29
28.7
28.7
30
23.9
25
18.8
18.2
20
12.9
15
10
5.3
4.4
5
0
No High
School Diploma
High School
Graduate
Some
College
2000
* Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario
2040
Bachelor's
Degree
Graduate/Prof.
Degree
Average Household Income
in Texas, 2000-2040*
(in 2000 Dollars)
$60,000
$54,441
$52,639
$50,903
$49,326
$50,000
$47,883
$40,000
$30,000
2000
2010
* Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario
2020
2030
2040
Projected Percent of Households in Poverty by
Family Type in Texas, 2000 and 2040
Percent in Poverty
35.0
30.0
26.7
30.0
25.0
18.9
20.0
15.0
18.9
17.0
15.4
16.6
15.0
14.4
11.8
11.4
7.5
10.0
5.0
0.0
Family
Households
Married
Couple
Male
Householder
2000
* Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario
Female
Householder
2040
Nonfamily
Households
Total
Households
Average Annual Household Income in Texas and the United States
by Educational Attainment of Householder in 2000*
Average Income
$120,000
$102,410 $104,294
$100,000
$80,950 $80,327
$80,000
$52,552 $54,467
$60,000
$40,000
$42,271 $44,068
$30,412 $32,473
$20,000
$0
Less Than
High School
High School
Graduate
Some College or
Associate Degree
Texas
United States
*From Census 2000 Public Use Microdata Sample (1% File)
Bachelor's
Degree
Graduate/Professional
Degree
Percent of Persons 25 Years of Age or Older by Level of Educational
Attainment and Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projected to 2040*
Assuming 1990-2000 Trends in Educational Attainment Rates
Anglo
< High School
12.7
2.2
25.7
High School
16.6
31.6
33.4
30.0
Some Coll/Assoc
Bachelor's +
47.8
Black
< High School
24.0
4.3
29.9
High School
25.6
30.6
Some Coll/Assoc.
40.5
15.5
Bachelor's +
29.6
Hispanic
50.7
< High School
32.1
22.0
25.8
18.4
24.1
High School
Some Coll/Assoc
8.9
Bachelor's +
18.0
Other
21.0
< High School
High School
13.4
16.1
7.6
20.6
Some Coll/Assoc
11.0
42.3
Bachelor's +
68.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
Percent
2000
*Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario
2040
60.0
70.0
80.0
Aggregate Income and Consumer Expenditures for Population
25 Years of Age or Older in Texas in 2000 and Projected Under
Alternative Educational Attainment Assumptions for 2040*
Billions
$1,200
$938
$1,000
$765
$800
$629
$621
$528
$600
$400
$752
$251
$210
$200
$0
2000
Base Values
2040 Assuming
2000 Attainment
Differentials
Aggregate Income
*Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario
2040 Assuming
1990-2000 Trends
in Differentials
Consumer Expenditures
2040 Assuming
Anglo Trends
Apply to all Groups
State Tax Revenues in Texas for 2000 and Projected for 2040
(in 2000 Dollars) Assuming 2000 Rates, 1990-2000 Rates of Closure
Between Anglo-Black and Anglo-Hispanic Household Incomes,
and Anglo Income Levels for All Race/Ethnicity Groups*
Tax Revenues
$100,000,000,000
$89,667,827,701
$90,000,000,000
$74,812,045,501
$80,000,000,000
$68,026,247,958
$70,000,000,000
$60,000,000,000
$50,000,000,000
$40,000,000,000
$29,510,942,468
$30,000,000,000
$20,000,000,000
$10,000,000,000
$0
2000 Aggregate
Household Income
2040 Assuming
2000 Income
Differentials
*Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario
2040 Assuming
1990-2000 Closure
in Differentials
2040 Assuming
Anglo Incomes
for all Groups
Prison Population and Prison Costs for Population 25 Years
of Age or Older in Texas in 2000 and Projected Under
Alternative Educational Attainment Assumptions for 2040*
Prison Population
Costs (Billions)
400,000
$6.0
341,068
350,000
$5.1
$5.0
300,000
$4.0
250,000
227,969
$3.4
200,000
150,000
$3.0
126,515
134,539
$1.9
$2.0
$2.0
100,000
$1.0
50,000
0
$0.0
2000
Base Values
2040 Assuming
2000 Attainment
Differentials
2040 Assuming
1990-2000 Trends
in Differentials
Prison Population
*Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario
Prison Costs
2040 Assuming
Anglo Trends
Apply to all Groups
The mark of a truly
educated man is to be
moved deeply by
statistics.
George Bernard Shaw
Steve Murdock
Texas State Data Center
Phone
210 – 458 - 6530
Fax
210 – 458 - 6540
Website txsdc.utsa.edu