Tools for Workforce Planning
Virginia McCririck
Six Steps to Workforce
Planning
•
1) Define Purpose of the Plan
•
2) Map the Service Change and how it will impact on the workforce
•
3) Assess demand for the workforce based on the service delivery
•
4) Assess supply of staff available now and in the future
•
5) Develop and action plan to bridge gaps in demand and supply
and in the future
•
6) Implement and review
model
now
Step 1 – Defining the Plan
•
Purpose
– Problems to resolve?
– What does plan aim to achieve?
•
Scope
– What organisations are covered by the plan?
– What types of staff are covered?
– What client groups are covered?
– Timescale
•
Ownership
– Who owns the plan?
– Stakeholder involvement?
What tools will help with Step
1?
•
Stake holder mapping
•
PESTLE analysis - key drivers for change
•
SWOT analysis
Power/Interest Matrix of Stakeholders
Low
1
A. Minimal Effort
1
2
h CYPD
High
Level of Interest
3
4
B. Keep Informed
5
Service Usersh
h Adult Social Care
CSV/Volunteers
h Office for Third Sector
h Social Enterprise Unit
h
2
Power
h Carers Forum
3
C. Keep Satisfied
D. Key Players
h Carers
CTALD Team h
h PCT/SHA
4
h Supporting People Team
h
Staff/TU’s
Commissionersh
Elected Members h
5
High
Code
h Advocates & Supporters
h Blocks & Critics
h Neutral
Continuum of Commitment
Analysis
Stake- Obstructing No
Let It
holder
Commitment Happen
A
Make it
Happen
x
O
B
X
C
D
Help it
Happen
O
x
O
x
O
= Currently
O = Where we need them to be for successful change
X
Based on Beckhard & Harris (1987) Organisational Transitions: Managing Complex Change. For more information see NHS
Institute’s Social Movement Handbook “The Power of One – The Power of Many”
Pestle Analysis - Key Drivers for
Change
Political
Legal
Environmental
Organisation
Economic Factors
Social-Cultural Factors
Technological
Appraise your environment
Use a SWOT Analysis
Involve staff and other stakeholders
–
–
–
–
What do we do well?
What could we do better?
What are we not making the most of?
What are we worried about?
Step 2 – Map the Service
Change
Process of Service Re-design to meet service user choice, financial constraints,
improved efficiency, changes in care through technology
Critical stage - focus on intended benefits and what is achievable
Key to get wide stakeholder involvement in this step
•
Current baseline - of service costs and performance measures
•
What forces will support the change and what will resist it?
•
What are the options? What scenarios for service change have been
considered?
•
What is the preferred service delivery model? Is it realistic given financial
realities? Will it lead to improved outcomes for service users?
What tools will help with Step
2?
•
Scenario Planning
•
Culture web mapping
•
Tools for service improvement –
–
–
–
–
LEAN methodologies
Systems thinking
Action learning
Allowing space for new things to emerge
Scenario Planning
What is it?
Provides a framework to consider what the future holds
• Identifies new risks and challenges in the future - helps to prepare for the
unexpected
• Enables you to expand your vision and think of alternative futures
• Most useful when there is limited clarity on the future
• Helps to balance intuition, judgment and fact
• Recognises that forecasting is notoriously difficult
Where has it been used?
Private sector companies, eg, Shell, Body Shop,
• NHS
How do you do it?
•
There is no set approach - depends on organisation, situation etc…
One approach to Scenario
Planning
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Identify issues and forces that will shape the service and/or care pathway
over a defined period of time
Identify those that will have most impact
Identify those that give the most uncertainty
Identify 2 issues that cause most worry from this list and map against each
other, taking a positive and negative view of each one
Consider if there may be any wild cards coming into play
Then consider what it will look like in each of the scenarios you have
created
– Identify what this will mean for the service design
– Identify what this will mean for the workforce
– Identify what this will mean for service users
– Identify what this mean for partners along the delivery chain
Are any common issues identified?
What are the risk factors that you need to mitigate against?
Demand and Supply
Scenarios Quadrants
DEMAND for
institutional care LOW
New
World Choices
Providers diversify, innovate &
respond. Supports different
supply against rising
demography & changing
expectations.
Good outcomes
Mixed bag – Whose
vision?
Some specialist provision
grows but also mainstream
institutional investment
undermines choice & control
maximisation.
DEMAND for
institutional care HIGH
Specialist Growth
Specialised provision
refines & matches rising
demand in specialist areas.
Supports maximising
independence choice and
control.
SUPPLY for institutional
care FALLS
SUPPLY for
institutional care RISES
Markets Rule OK?
Availability sucks in people
to institutional placements.
Perverse drivers and
dysfunctional outcomes for
people. x
Scenario Planning – useful
links:
•
Improvement & Development Agency for Local Government (IDeA) –
www.idea.gov.uk
•
Shell - www.shell.com
Culture Web Mapping
The way we do things around here - very hard to change
Tool which enables a group to:
•
•
•
•
•
Identify what they “take for granted”
Identify barriers to change
Identify those things which will be very difficult to change
Identify those things which need to change
Develop practical ideas for implementing strategic change
Extracted from Johnson and Scholes
Cultural “From – To” Table
Example
From…
To…
Difficulty getting staff to work as a
team
Staff calling in on their day off to help
achieve the services targets
Staff bringing problems and
complaints to manager to sort
“This was the problem and this is
what we’ve done about it”
Clients told when to get out of bed
Clients able to choose when to get up
in the morning
Step 3 – Assess Workforce
Demand
•
Assess current & future demand for services
– Joint Strategic Needs Assessment
– POPPI data
– SAS data
•
What is the impact of service re-design - on tasks and role design?
•
What is the impact of new technology - on tasks and role design?
•
What tasks could be better performed elsewhere in the delivery chain for
the care pathway?
•
What achieves the best outcomes for service users?
•
Review this once you have completed Step 4 - how realistic is your new
service model?
What tools will help with Step
3?
Demand forecasting
• Ratio Analysis
• Trend analysis
• Cost analysis
Benchmarking
• productivity level comparison, internal and external
Systems thinking
Role re-design
• Aiming to achieve a picture of the sort of workforce you will require numbers and skills
Step 4 – Assess Workforce
Supply
•
The current workforce - what are the key characteristics of it?
•
Workforce forecasting - internal and external supply of workers
•
Options for increasing supply?
•
Options for working differently?
Key Steps in Internal Supply
Forecasting
•
Obtain data on current workforce numbers and skills in each skills
cluster/occupational group for whom forecast is to be generated
•
Analyse each group by age, length of service, diversity classification, current
performance, future potential
•
Forecast future ‘wastage’ (i.e. losses) based on trends in past turnover and
estimates of the likelihood that these will continue
•
Project retirements
•
Look at past trends in transfer/promotion out of the occupational group to
other occupational groups in the organisation
External Supply Forecasting
•
Research into skills shortages and recruitment difficulties
•
Trends and projections in the educational output of people with the relevant
skills and qualifications (possibly locally, nationally and internationally)
•
Trends in population movements in the area(s) concerned or wider
migratory patterns nationally or internationally
•
Competitive factors in the labour market, locally or more widely
•
Changing expectations about work and working conditions or benefits
•
Pay rates operating in the local labour market
Step 5 – Developing an Action
Plan
•
Gap analysis
•
Priority planning
•
Action planning
•
Risks to achieving the outcomes
•
Managing the change
Internal strategies (‘grow’ your
own) could involve:
•
Work restructuring and skills change
•
Changing (eg flexible) work patterns
•
Training and development
•
Retraining
•
Promotion/succession plans
•
Redeployment
•
Redundancy
External strategies (‘buy in’)
could involve:
•
External recruitment of qualified staff
•
External recruitment of trainee staff
•
Other measures to influence supply, such as educational sponsorship
Menu of recruitment and
retention options available to
councils
Outward facing
Inward facing
• Strategic partnering
• Forecast supply and demand
• Shared services
• Work across organisations
• Outsourcing
• Employability of local workforce
• Branding – ‘employer of choice’
• Retain local workforce
• Better use of agency staff
• Scenario planning
• Pay and benefits
• Target under-represented groups
• E-recruitment
• Balance workforce profile
• Flexible working
• Total rewards package
• Reduce sickness absence
• Technology i.e mobile working
Short Term
Long Term
Step 6 - Implementation,
Monitoring and Review
•
Implementation
•
Measuring progress
•
Revisit Each Step - it is an iterative process
Helpful Resources
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
“Tomorrow’s People” - Audit Commission Report 2008 - includes some
group work exercises - www.audit-commission.gov.uk
“What does a Commissioning Framework Look Like?” - ADASS 2007
www.aruspex.com - American website with some helpful resources
Improvement and Development Agency website on workforce - some
helpful examples of learning from integrated workforce planning
Skills for Care - www.skillsforcare.org.uk
Skills for Health - www.skillsforhealth.org.uk
South West Regional Efficiency & Improvement Partnership –
www.southwestiep.gov.uk/skillsdevelopment/lean.htm
Virginia McCririck, Transforming Adult Social Care Regional Implementation
Lead for Workforce - virginia.mccririck@dh.gsi.gov.uk
Mobile contact - 07767 647447