SYRIAN CIVIL WAR
&
THE IMPACT
ON ITS NEIGHBORS
Faten Ghosn, PhD
fghosn@email.arizona.edu
School of Government and Public Policy
OUTLINE
• Three Main Goals:
– Domestic, regional and international factors that
facilitated the civil war and how they differentiate
Syria from Egypt and Tunis.
– The main powerful rebel groups on the ground.
– Spillover effect into neighboring countries.
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DOMESTIC, REGIONAL & INTERNATIONAL FACTORS
•
Domestic
– Failed Economic Liberalization; Impact of Sanctions; Dominance of Gulf Capital; Housing
Crisis
– Decline in subsidies to the population- 20% unemployment & 14% living in poverty (UNDP
2010)
– Repression
– Revival of Islamists in 2004
– Attacks/Assassinations/Bombings/Clashes with militant groups: 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007,
2008, 2009; Political leaders as well as Moderate Religious clerics were being targeted
•
Regional
– Iraq War 2003
– Failed Israeli-Syrian Peace Process
– Withdrawal from Lebanon, and accusations of assassinations
– Arab Cold War: Sunni/Moderate Axis vs Shiite/Resistance Axis
•
International
– “War on Terror” & Deterioration of US-SYR Relations
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MAIN DIFFERENCES
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MAIN REBEL GROUPS
• Islamic State in Iraq and Levant (ISIL/ISIS) (‫)داعش‬
• Al Nusra Front (‫)جبهة النصرة‬
• Islamic Front (‫)الجبهة االسالمية‬
• Revolutionary Front of Syria (‫)جبهة ثوار سوريا‬
• Syria Military Command/Free Syrian Army (‫القيادة العسكرية العليا‬/‫)الجيش الحر‬
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SPILLOVER: LEBANON
• Political Impact—Tensions in forming Cabinet and Electing
President.
• Security Impact—Car bombs, suicide attacks, clashes with
security forces.
• Economic Impact—Loss of over 8 billion in tourism and 28
million in trade.
• Refugees—Over 1million registered refugees (27% of Lebanese
Population).
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SPILLOVER: JORDAN
• Political Impact— Increase in tensions; several protests breaking
out.
• Security Impact—Clashes on border, smuggling and arms
trafficking.
• Economic Impact—High Unemployment, escalating rents and
the rising prices of basic goods.
• Refugees– 600,000 registered refugees (10% of Jordan’s
population).
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Thank You!
!‫شكرا‬
School of Government and Public Policy