The New Apollo-level
Bruce Cordell, Ph.D.
JFK’s 50 th Moon Anniversary
May 25, 1961
: “…this nation should commit itself to achieving the goal, before this decade is out, of landing a man on the moon and returning him safely to the earth.
Freeman Dyson, ISDC 2010:
‘Why have we been stuck in LEO for 40 Years?’
• Apollo & last 200 years of Great Explorations explained by twice/century“critical states”
• Growth, technology, geopolitics
, the trigger
• Early self-sufficiency in deep space avoids another
Apollo’s timing not an accident;
New international Space Age expected near-term.
Over the last 200+ years…
Twice-Per-Century Clusters of these exist:
• Great Explorations (e.g., Lewis and Clark)
• Macro-Engineering Projects (e.g., Panama Canal)
• Major Wars (e.g., World War I)
The 1960s were transformative
The Way We Were…
The Way We Will Be
The Maslow Window
It’s 1987. Why the smiles?
Energy Booms 1801 1857 1913 1969
Lewis & Clark/ Livingstone/ Peary/ Apollo/
N. America Africa Polar Moon
Macro-Engineering (Erie Canal) Suez Canal Panama Canal Apollo
Major Wars Napoleanic Wars/ Civil War W.W. I Vietnam/
War of 1812 Cold War
The 56 Yr Energy/Boom Cycle
From Hugh B. Stewart
(1989), Recollecting the
Future , Dow Jones-Irwin,
Homewood, IL, pp. 64.
Replotted in Theodore
Predictions , Simon &
Schuster, New York, pp.
Standard Chartered Bank’s
The Maslow Window Model
• Rhythmic, twice-per-century JFK-style booms occur --
• Widespread affluence -- the “Great Prosperity”
• Many ascend Maslow’s Hierarchy -- “
Expanded worldviews support Apollo-style initiatives
Maslow Windows as
Are Maslow Windows Triggered by
• Pulsed Progress 2x/Century
• Critical States seen in:
– Financial Systems
– NASA Space Programs
CS Feature large, unexpected changes from small triggers, “Avalanches”
Are Critical States Like Falling Grains of Sand?
Are Maslow Windows Predictable?
Near-Critical Potential Signatures Include:
• Financial Panics/Great Recessions; e.g., Panics of 2008,
• Geopolitical Tensions/Conflicts
; e.g., Cuban Missile
Crisis, Iran/North Korea…
• Major Economic Booms; e.g., 1899, JFK Boom, 2015 (?)…
A 21 st Century “Sputnik Moment”?
The 1960s As a “Critical State”
• Sputnik (1957)
• Cuban Missile Crisis
• Peace Corps
• Apollo Moon Program
• Civil Rights Movement
Yale Sociologist Gary Brewer: During
Apollo, NASA was “a perfect place.”
Forecasts and Issues
A Maslow Case Study: 1890-1913
Greatest Global Boom – 7/23/07
The Remaining Step: A JFK-style
• The Energy Boom
• Creativity –Universities, Business
• Huge Amounts of Capital
• New Technologies/Manufacturing Depth
“America’s success isn’t preordained. But the technological innovations circa 2012 are profound. They will engender sweeping changes to our society and our economy. All the forces are in place. It’s just a matter of when.”
The Trajectory of Great Explorations
Lewis and Clark/ NW U.S.
Dr. Livingstone/ Eq Africa
Peary/Amundsen/ Pole s
What’s Next? Or ?
What About the Moon?
“The Moon will never motivate the
American people again.” (1984)
Tom Paine, NASA Admin 1968-70
• Star Trek: The Next Generation
• ISS Model and Interspace
• “The potential for cultural shock and social disorganization…”
The “Earth” Model or the “Moon” Model?
Who’s the Next Space President?
• 2015-2025: analog of the transformative1960s/1900s
• The key: early self-sufficiency in deep space – to avoid another 40-year hiatus
• Maslow patterns are robust through 2 world wars, the Great Depression, several financial panics
• After 2025, next Maslow Window of opportunity is between 2071 – 2081.
Can Humanity Afford to Wait?
Dr. Bruce Cordell
See: “10 Space Trends for 2014…”