The New Apollo-level
Space Age
Bruce Cordell, Ph.D.
ISDC 2014.5.15
21stCenturyWaves.com
JFK’s 50 th Moon Anniversary
May 25, 1961
: “…this nation should commit itself to achieving the goal, before this decade is out, of landing a man on the moon and returning him safely to the earth.
Freeman Dyson, ISDC 2010:
‘Why have we been stuck in LEO for 40 Years?’
Preview
• Apollo & last 200 years of Great Explorations explained by twice/century“critical states”
• Growth, technology, geopolitics
, the trigger
• Early self-sufficiency in deep space avoids another
40-yr hiatus
Apollo’s timing not an accident;
New international Space Age expected near-term.
Introduction
The Patterns
Over the last 200+ years…
Twice-Per-Century Clusters of these exist:
• Great Explorations (e.g., Lewis and Clark)
• Macro-Engineering Projects (e.g., Panama Canal)
• Major Wars (e.g., World War I)
Disney and
Von Braun
The 1960s were transformative
…
The Way We Were…
The Way We Will Be
The Maslow Window
Economic Model
It’s 1987. Why the smiles?
Compelling Clusters
Energy Booms 1801 1857 1913 1969
Great
Explorations
Lewis & Clark/ Livingstone/ Peary/ Apollo/
N. America Africa Polar Moon
Macro-Engineering (Erie Canal) Suez Canal Panama Canal Apollo
Projects (MEP)
Major Wars Napoleanic Wars/ Civil War W.W. I Vietnam/
War of 1812 Cold War
The 56 Yr Energy/Boom Cycle
From Hugh B. Stewart
(1989), Recollecting the
Future , Dow Jones-Irwin,
Homewood, IL, pp. 64.
Replotted in Theodore
Modis (1992)
Predictions , Simon &
Schuster, New York, pp.
148.
Standard Chartered Bank’s
“Super-Cycles”
The Maslow Window Model
• Rhythmic, twice-per-century JFK-style booms occur --
“Super-Cycle”
• Widespread affluence -- the “Great Prosperity”
• Many ascend Maslow’s Hierarchy -- “
Ebullience
”
Expanded worldviews support Apollo-style initiatives
1960s “Ebullience”
Maslow Windows as
“Critical States”
Are Maslow Windows Triggered by
Critical States?
• Pulsed Progress 2x/Century
• Critical States seen in:
– Financial Systems
– NASA Space Programs
– Wars
CS Feature large, unexpected changes from small triggers, “Avalanches”
Are Critical States Like Falling Grains of Sand?
Are Maslow Windows Predictable?
Near-Critical Potential Signatures Include:
• Financial Panics/Great Recessions; e.g., Panics of 2008,
1893…
• Geopolitical Tensions/Conflicts
; e.g., Cuban Missile
Crisis, Iran/North Korea…
• Major Economic Booms; e.g., 1899, JFK Boom, 2015 (?)…
A 21 st Century “Sputnik Moment”?
The 1960s As a “Critical State”
• Sputnik (1957)
• Cuban Missile Crisis
• Peace Corps
• Apollo Moon Program
• Civil Rights Movement
• Vietnam
Yale Sociologist Gary Brewer: During
Apollo, NASA was “a perfect place.”
Forecasts and Issues
A Maslow Case Study: 1890-1913
Greatest Global Boom – 7/23/07
The Remaining Step: A JFK-style
Boom
• The Energy Boom
• Creativity –Universities, Business
• Huge Amounts of Capital
• New Technologies/Manufacturing Depth
“America’s success isn’t preordained. But the technological innovations circa 2012 are profound. They will engender sweeping changes to our society and our economy. All the forces are in place. It’s just a matter of when.”
The Trajectory of Great Explorations
Lewis and Clark/ NW U.S.
Dr. Livingstone/ Eq Africa
Peary/Amundsen/ Pole s
Apollo/ Moon
What’s Next? Or ?
What About the Moon?
“The Moon will never motivate the
American people again.” (1984)
Tom Paine, NASA Admin 1968-70
• Star Trek: The Next Generation
• ISS Model and Interspace
• “The potential for cultural shock and social disorganization…”
The “Earth” Model or the “Moon” Model?
Who’s the Next Space President?
Summary
• 2015-2025: analog of the transformative1960s/1900s
“critical states”
• The key: early self-sufficiency in deep space – to avoid another 40-year hiatus
• Maslow patterns are robust through 2 world wars, the Great Depression, several financial panics
• After 2025, next Maslow Window of opportunity is between 2071 – 2081.
Can Humanity Afford to Wait?
Contact
Dr. Bruce Cordell
Web: 21stCenturyWaves.com
/
See: “10 Space Trends for 2014…”
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