Phud. Bard’s pictorial scroll. c. 1900. N. India.
G228: South Asian Politics
Matthew C.J. Rudolph, Ph.D.
Indo-US Relations and South Asia
Cold War
• US allied to Pakistan
• India allied to the Soviet Union
After the Cold War
• US pulls out of Afghanistan and Pakistan
• India lost strategically; approaches the US
• US: “Stop, roll back, and eliminate nukes”
2
Kashmir: Still the Crux of the Rivalry?
Siachen Glacier – 17,000 to 19,000 ft
• Kashmir has been
the crux of IndoPakistani rivalry
since 1947
Wagah border post, evening closing ceremonies
The Importance of Kashmir
•
•
•
The main point of contention between India and Pakistan.
3 wars: 1947, 1965, 1999 over Kashmir. (ongoing skirmishes)
Insurgency since 1989 – death of 35,000-60,000
Kashmir Dispute
• Kashmir dispute dates back to 1947
Partition of India
– Pakistan claims Kashmir because of Muslim
majority population
– India claims Kashmir as part of multireligious, multi-ethnic nation
• First India-Pakistan war fought over Kashmir
(1947-48)
• Ceasefire line established following war, UN
monitoring
• 1965 India-Pakistan war
• After 1971 Bangladesh war, Line of Control
re-established
• Major insurgency after 1989
• 1999 Kargil war
• 2003-04 Peace Talks
• 2002 and 2008 state elections
5
6
Origin of the Conflict
• 1941 – Muslim Nationalist
movement reached its peak with the
Urban professional/Elite Muslims
demand for independence based on
Muslim symbols. (Muslim League)
• 1947 –British exit leaving behind
two nations, India and Pakistan, and a
disputed territory of Kashmir.
The Design of the Partition
• Muslim Majority Areas - 1909
• Elite Choice
• Feasibility
Kashmir: Time Line of Critical Events
• 1946 election – Muslim League wins in
Muslim Majority Area; Pakistan and India
independence plans are announced; Kashmir
announces a separate state. Riots in the
country.
• August 1947 – British departure – three
countries.
• October 1947 - Armed Muslim Tribes from
Pakistan enter Kashmir. (Supported by the
Pakistani military).
• Mah. Hari Singh and Sheikh Abdullah ask
Nehru for Military Assist.
• Deal based on Accession, Autonomy,
Plebiscite
• Article 370: Employment, Land.
• 1948 - Ceasefire lines established (UN).
Kashmir: Time Line of Critical Events
• 1963 – Askai Chin (China)
• 1965 – India-Pakistan War
(Nuclearizing India)
• 1971 - Line of Control
(Bhutto/I.Gandhi)
• 1989 – Insurgency and Violence
begins
• 1999 – Kargil War (Nuclear Nations)
Kashmir Divided
Pakistani Kashmir
•
Azad Kashmir
Same issues as rest of Pakistan.
•
Northern Kashmir
Tribal and chiefs.
Local Bazaar/Tribal Economy
Low rates of literacy (12%)
•
Hub for anti-India jihadi groups.
Earthquake made these groups visible
Indian Kashmir – Religious Demography and
Population Density
• The Valley: Predominantly Muslim; 1990 exodus on Hindus; Srinagar
• Jammu: Predominantly Hindus and Sikhs; Jammu
• Ladhakh: 50% Buddhists, Muslims – 49 percent (Shia majority); Leh
Kashmir: Control and Population Distribution
Controlled
Area
Population
Hindus
Muslims
Buddhists
Others
India
Jammu
3 million
67%
30%
-
3%
The Valley
4 million
4%
95%
-
Ladakh
.25
million
-
49%
50%
1%
N. Areas
.9
-
99%
-
-
Azad
Kashmir
.26
-
99%
-
-
Aksai Chin
?
-
-
-
-
Pakistan
China
Causes of Conflict I: External Intrusion
• 1979-1988 - Pakistan launched a proxy war for US
and Saudi Arabia during Afghan’s Soviet era (19781988) producing several jihadi groups targeting the
“godless” Soviet Union and the Shias.
• 1988 - Kashmir became the new front for Jihad
and Hindus the new infidels.
• India deployed more troops to Kashmir in the
1990’s to “fight fire with fire.”
Associated Radical Jihadi Groups from Pakistan
• Lashkar e-Toiba (LeT; 1980)
• Hizbul Mujahideen (HUM)
• Harkat-ul- Ansar (HUA)
1964;1988)
• Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM; 2000)
• Jamaat Ul- Mujahideen (JuM)
• Jammu and Kashmir Lib. Front (JKLF;
Domestic Political Incentives for Conflict
• 1947-1964: Nehru period – National Conference
(NC) and the Congress have a deal which
sometimes included Sheikh Abdullah.
• During this period. India tries to constitutionally
extend itself into Kashmir.
• Sheikh Abdullah in and out of jail during this
time. NC stays in powers.
• 1966-1975 – Abdullah and Gandhi accord.
National Conference in power marginalizing other
groups.
• Polarization of other religious groups as well
other Muslim opposition within NC and without.
(Language and religious symbols.)
• 1975- Indira Gandhi Emergency
• NC part of the opposition to the Emergency in
No Insurgency
1979
Domestic Political Incentives for Conflict II
•
•
•
IG returns in 1980s – centralizes power.
Attempts to oust Farooq Abdullah.
Kashmiri Muslim backlash at undemocratic moves by opening doors to
external insurgents.
•
•
Rise of BJP in the 1980s. (Hindu backlash and Congress).
J&K National Panther Party (Hindu/Kashmir – 1950).
•
Ladhakh Union Front Territory (led by LBA 1989) 2002. (Buddhist
Backlash)
Rising tensions due to conversions and desecration claims.
Increasing attacks on each other by the youth starting in 1989 onwards.
•
•
•
1999 election – 28% - Conference backed by the BJP govt. Alliance.
(Hindu/Muslim Cooperation; excluding the separatist groups)
•
2002 – Pakistan promises to withdraw support for Sunni radical groups
•
2004 election – 46% - Peoples Democratic Party and Congress alliance.
(Hindu/Muslim/Buddhist Cooperation)
Other Points of Contention
•
Military presence, “occupation,” and civil military relations.
–
•
•
•
120,000 to 200,000 personnel.
Military Economy
Military-civil relations
Development of the region.
–
–
Water sharing with Pakistan
Baglihar/Kashmir Dam
Associated Separatist Groups
•
•
All Party Hurriyat Conference umbrella organization
Jammu and Kashmir Liberation Front
1964; 1988; 1996
Viability of Independent Kashmir
•
Pakistan’s historical perspective
Inherent Part of Pakistan- incomplete
partition
China’s support (domestic reasons)
•
Indian’s historical perspective.
Secularism offered them a place
Indian Muslims
(140 mil vs Kashmiri 8mil)
- Setting precedence for ethnic groups - Kashmiriyat
• Recent Resource Value
Crossroads for rivers emerging from Himalaya
After Mumbai “26-11”:
Will India & Pakistan Fight Another War?
• Conventional wars
–1947-48 First Kashmir war
–1962 Sino-Indian border war
–1965 Rann of Kutch/Kashmir war
–1971 E. Pakistan/Bangladesh war
advent of mutual nuclear capabilities
• Two serious crises
–1986-87 Brasstacks crisis
–1990 Kashmir crisis
•
•
•
•
•
1999 limited war in Kargil
Continued fighting in Kashmir
2002 military standoff
2003-04 Peace Talks
2008 Mumbai Attacks
U.S. Policy Challenges
• Balance of interests dilemma
– U.S. interests are different, less intense and more
sporadic than those of local actors.
• Serves to limit U.S. influence
• Regional security vs. counterterrorism
– Solve Kashmir dispute or counter terrorists?
• War prevention vs. nonproliferation
– Prevent nuclear states from going to war, or prevent warprone states from going nuclear?
– Efforts to solve regional problems might create
undesirable precedents
• e.g., technical assistance for C3
• Security assistance dilemma
– U.S. efforts to increase one country’s security might
increase other side’s insecurity.
• e.g., missile defenses
21
S.P. Mukherjee, Iconic Antidote and Progenitor:
Kashmir, Leadership Lineage and the BJP in Crisis
S.P. Mukherjee, Iconic Antidote and Progenitor:
Kashmir, Leadership Lineage and the BJP in Crisis
Shyama Prasad Mukherjee
1901-1953
Tripolia Bazaar, Jaipur
Where Mukherjee made the
“Ek Nishan, Ek Pradhan, Ek Vidhan” speech
500
400
300
200
100
0
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51
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57
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62
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67
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84
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04
Parliamentary
Seats
BJP and its Predecessors' Electoral Performance:
General Elections 1951-2004
Year
Congress
BJP and its Predecessors
BJP HQ Delhi 2003: Mukherjee Portrait in Rear Dpty.
PM Advani and BJP Gen. Sec. Naidu
Ek Vidhan, Ek Nishan, Ek Pradhan
One Constitution, One Flag, One Prime Minister
Jammu and Kashmir
Flag
The Two PMs:
Nehru and Sheikh Abdullah
Jammu and Kashmir
Deccan Herald
Wednesday, June 24, 1953
S. P. Mookerjee Is Dead
Dr. Syama Prasad Mookerjee, 52-year-old leader
of the All India Bharatiya Jan Sangh and former Minister of the
Central Government, passed away in the early hours of today
at Srinagar. Dr. Mookerjee, who was under detention for
entering the Kashmir State without permit, died of heart
attack at 3.40 a.m. in the nursing home of the State Hospital.
NEW DELHI, June 23
Questions