Debating the Causes of
WW1 – 3 Puzzles, 3
Levels
Volusia County PS
2012 Workshop
Gary Armstrong, Ph.D.
William Jewell College
Causes of World War I
A.
B.
C.
D.
E.
F.
Why 1914 Matters
Incomplete Explanations

A chauffeur’s wrong turn?
A withered arm?

Arms Race?

Thinking War was Impossible?

What Causes War? “3 Lenses”
3rd Lens: Rise of German Power

Effects of German power: Rigid Alliances

The Schlieffen Plan (& Forster Thesis)
2nd Lens: Domestic Crises

Crises within Multinational Empires

Fischer Thesis
1st Lens: Ideas
Learning from 1914 – Competing Theories

“Motives Theory” & “Accidental War” (& Levy’s Preference Scheme)

“Spiral Theory” (& Turn the Army Around!)

“Deterrence Theory” (& Britain as Missing Deterer)

“Cult of the Offensive” (and Red Pants!)
Great War Basics
1914-1918
Central Powers vs. Allies
Dead: 9 Million military, 7 million civilian
Firsts
–
–
–
–
–
Use of chemical weapons
Mass attacks on civilians from air
Genocide
Immobile Front
US in European War
Widespread Collapse & Social
Exhaustion
New World Coming
“The lamps are going out all
over Europe. We shall not
see them lit again in our
lifetime.”
Sir Edward Grey,
British Foreign
Secretary, 1905-1916
1862-1933
Niall Ferguson
No persuasive evidence that
Germany intended to “conquer
the world”
Germany’s September 1914
Program would have created
German-dominated customs
union
That’s what we have today – 90
years later!
The Chauffeur’s Fault
Psychological
Pathologies?
Kaiser Wilhelm II
1959-1941
reign 1888-1918
Irrational Arms Race?
The Naval
Revolution
HMS
Dreadnought
1907
Dreadnought schema
Naval Strength, 1914
Country
Russia
France
Britain
Germany
A-H
Personnel
54,000
68,000
209,000
Major Warships
4
10
29
79,000
16,000
17
3
Dreadnoughts
20
13
Confidence that Globalization
won’t let it happen
Economist,
10/97
War is not rational –
Norman Angell
Norman Angell
1872-1967
Nobel Peace Prize, 1933
Read Mill’s “Essay on Liberty” at age 12
Great Illusion, 1910
“…military and political power give a
nation no commercial advantage, that
it is an economic impossibility for one
nation to seize or destroy the wealth
of another, or for one nation to enrich
itself by subjugating another.”
Kenneth Waltz
Emeritus Professor, UC
Berkeley
Most cited Neo-Realist
Man, The State, & War (1959)
Theory of International Politics
(1979)
Spread of Nuclear Weapons:
Would More Be Better? (1995)
What Causes War?
Waltz & 3 Images
First Image: Nature of man
– Augustine, Reinhold Niebuhr
– Waltz: Why This Doesn’t Work
Second Image: Defects in Regimes
– Woodrow Wilson, Lenin
– The Liberal Democratic Peace
– Waltz: Why This Doesn’t Work
Third Image: Structure of World Politics
– Anarchy & Security Dilemmas
Rise of German Power
Industrial Power (UK 1900 = 100)
Country
UK
USA
Germany
France
Russia
A-H
Italy
Japan
1880
73.3
46.9
27.4
25.1
24.5
14
8.1
7.6
Source: Kennedy, Rise & Fall of the
Great Powers
1900
[100]
127.8
71.2
36.8
47.5
25.6
13.6
13
1913
127.2
298.1
137.7
57.3
76.6
40.7
22.5
25.1
1928
135
533
214
74
72
-37
45
Rise of German Power:
Military Manpower
Country
Russia
France
Germany
UK
A-H
Italy
USA
1880
791k
543k
426k
367k
246k
216k
34k
Source: Kennedy, Rise & Fall of the
Great Powers
1890
677k
542k
504k
420k
346k
284k
39k
1900
1.16 M
715k
694k
624k
385k
255k
127k
1914
1.35 M
910k
891k
532k
444k
345k
164k
Rise of German Power:
Population (in millions)
Country
Russia
USA
Germany
A-H
France
UK
1890
116.8
62.6
49.2
42.6
38.3
37.3
Source: Kennedy, Rise & Fall of the
Great Powers
1900
135.6
75.9
56.0
46.7
38.9
41.1
1910
159.3
91.9
65.5
50.8
39.5
44.9
1913
175.1
97.1
66.9
52.1
39.7
45.6
Rise of German Power
Urbanization (%)
Country
UK
USA
Germany
France
A-H
Russia
1890
29.9
15.3
11.3
11.7
5.6
3.6
Source: Kennedy, Rise & Fall of the
Great Powers
1900
32.8
18.7
15.5
13.3
6.6
4.8
1913
34.6
23.1
21.1
14.8
8.8
7.0
Alliance System, 1914
Building an entente
1904: France & UK begin conversations
1905: Russia nearly collapses
1907: France, Russia, UK form entente
cordiale
Building: Another Way
General
Henry
Wilson
Wilson: How many
British troops do you
need if Germany
attacks?
Foch: One. And we
will see to it that he is
killed.
– 1910
General
Ferdinand
Foch
Count Alfred von Schlieffen
1833-1913
The Schlieffen Plan
German Timetable
 Liege open by
M+12
 Brussels by M+19
 French frontier on
M+22
 Thionville-St.
Quentin by M+31
 Paris by M+39
19
22
31
39
12
Mobilization Chronology
6/28
7/23
7/25
7/26
7/28
7/29
Assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand
AH ultimatum to Serbia
Russia begins pre-mobilization
Russia issues “period preparatory to war”
alert”
AH declares war on Serbia, begins
mobilization
Russia begins partial mobilization, then
general mobilization, then cancels
mobilization
Mobilization Chronology
7/30
7/31
7/31
7/31
7/31
8/1
8/1
8/2
8/2
8/2
8/3
8/3
8/4
Russia orders general mobilization (1700)
Germany learns of Russian mobilization (1200)
German “Danger of War” alert (1300)
German ultimatum to Russia to stop mobilization
French mobilization, 10 km withdrawal
German mobilization (1700)
Germany declares war on Russia (1900)
German invasion of Luxembourg
British Cabinet orders Royal
Navy to protect English Channel
German ultimatum to Belgium
(1900)
UK orders army mobilization
Germany declares war on France
Germany invades Belgium (0802)
Causes of World War I
A.
B.
What 1914 Matters
Incomplete Explanations



C.
3rd Image: Rise of German Power


D.
Effects of German power: Rigid Alliances
The Schlieffen Plan (& Forster Thesis)
2nd Image: Domestic Crises


E.
F.
A chauffeur’s wrong turn?
A withered arm?
Arms Race?
Thinking War was Impossible?
Crises within Multinational Empires
Fischer Thesis
1st Image: Ideas
Learning from 1914 – Competing Theories



“Motives Theory” & “Accidental War” (& Levy’s Preference
Scheme)
“Spiral Theory” (& Turn the Army Around!)
“Deterrence Theory” (& Britain as Missing Deterer)
Austria-Hungary
Head of State: Kaiser FranzJosef I (r 1848-1916)
Population: 52 M
Federal Empire
Languages: 24% German,
20% Hungarian, 13% Czech,
10% Polish, 8% Ruthenian,
6% Romanian, 5% Croat, 5%
Slovene, 3% Italian
Commander
Franz Conrad von Hötzendorf
1852-1925
Chief of Staff, KuK Army,
1906-1917
Proposed War with Serbia
25 times, 1913
Dismissed, 1917, by new
Emperor Karl
Socialist Vote
Date
A-H
France
Germany
Russia
Britain
Ferguson, Pity of War
1911
1914
1912
1912
1910
Percentage
Socialist
Total
of Vote
Seats
Parl
25.4
16.8
34.8
n.a.
6.4
33
103
110
24
42
397
670
Fischer Thesis
Fritz Fischer, German Historian,
1908-1999
German leaders obsessed with
internal threat of Socialist revolution
German domestic pressure groups
produced aggressive foreign policy
Germany deliberately began WW1
in bid for world power
Germany intended to commit ethnic
cleansing in Russia, then recolonize with Germans
Continuity in German foreign policy
Huge Controversy
Wobbly Autocracy?
Internal Unrest
in Russia
Evidence of Unrest
Troops Used to suppress internal unrest
–
–
–
–
1901
1903
Jan 1909
All 1909
155
322
13,507
114,108
1903: 54 aristocratic estates wrecked
1913: 100,000 arrests for “attacks on state
power”
Kennedy, Rise & Fall of the Great Powers
Wobbly Authoritarian?
Internal Unrest
in China
Murray Tanner, “China Rethinks Unrest,” 2004
China’s
Demographic Challenge
Global Average =
103-107 Boy:Girl
1st Image: Ideas & War in 1914
German Author General von
Bernhardi,1849-1930
Germany & the Next War
–
–
–
–
The Right to Make War
The Duty to Make War
World Power or Downfall
War as biological necessity based on
natural law requiring struggle for existence
Key Ideas
– Militarism
– Social Darwinism
– War as Moral Corrective
Causes of World War I
A.
B.
What 1914 Matters
Incomplete Explanations



C.
3rd Image: Rise of German Power


D.
Effects of German power: Rigid Alliances
The Schlieffen Plan (& Forster Thesis)
2nd Image: Domestic Crises


E.
F.
A chauffeur’s wrong turn?
A withered arm?
Arms Race?
Thinking War was Impossible?
Crises within Multinational Empires
Fischer Thesis
1st Image: Ideas
Learning from 1914 – Competing Theories



“Motives Theory” & “Accidental War” (& Levy’s Preference
Scheme)
“Spiral Theory” (& Turn the Army Around!)
“Deterrence Theory” (& Britain as Missing Deterer)
Accidental or Inadvertent War?
Levy’s Preference Scheme
AH
Germany
Russia
France
UK
Levy in Avoiding War
LW>>CW>>NP>>WW
LW>>CW>>NP>>WW
NP>>WW>>CW>>LW
NP>>LW>>WW>>CW
NP>>LW>>WW>?LW
Spiral
Theory
Barbara Tuchman
1912-1989
Spiral Theory: What’s Luxemburg Got to Do
With This?
KW2 aka
Supreme
War Lord
Chancellor
Bethmann
Hollweg
General
Moltke
Cult of the Offensive?
World Politics in an Offensive
Dominant World
Arguments for territorial expansion seem
persuasive
Strong incentives for preemptive attack
Strong incentives for preventive war
Push diplomacy in crisis
Premium on secrecy
The Cult of the Offensive
Assumption: Defensive military strategies
dominated World War I.
Puzzle: Why did belligerents adopt
offensive strategies?
Michael Howard: Logic of “Men Against
Fire”
Map: Ger penetration 1918
Map: German control highpoint
1918
Elan Vitale!
Losses: KIA
Aug-Nov 1914
306,000
30,000
241,000
Key Lessons of 1914
 “German Revolution” pressuring
international stability
 Rigid Military Planning Created Crisis
Cascade
 Incomplete Democratization (or
Liberalization) Dangerous
 Dangers of View that War is Inevitable or
Good
Some Conclusions
Deep Causes vs. Trigger
Immense Pressures Creating Strong
Pressure for Conflict
Some Pressures Look Similar Today