From Aquino to Aquino
Transitional Challenges and
Presidential Leadership in
Democratizing Philippines
Dr. Julio C. Teehankee
De La Salle University
Manila, Philippines
The Puzzle?
• In a developing democracy like the Philippines,
identifying the ineffectiveness of our
presidents has become an obsession.
• “Pundits are quick to point out what is wrong,
but short on explaining what is wrought.”
►What can Philippine presidents actually do during
their term?
►What factors prevents or enables them to provide
presidential leadership?
►What is the impact of the presidential transition on
the rest of their term?
The Philippine Presidency
• the most durable in
the Asian region
• one of three
presidential systems in
East Asia (South Korea
& Indonesia)
• fifteen presidents
since the first
Philippine Republic
was inaugurated in
1899
The Philippine Presidency:
American Template
Personal Model
Richard Neustadt
• presidents must
persuade
• reputation,
prestige,
perception, &
judgement
• personal style
Regime Model
Stephen Skowronek
• presidents come to
power within regimes
(institutional
arrangement)
• structural pattern of
regime change
• cycle of presidents
within regimes
Structured Choice Model
Robert Lieberman
• opportunities for
strategic presidential
action within
structurally defined &
delimited situation
• structure & agency,
regimes & choice
The Philippine Presidency:
Latin American Parallelisms
While the Philippine
presidency is patterned
after the American
template, it is rooted in
Latin American
practices.
The Philippine Presidency:
Pangulo Regime
“Pangulo Regime”
► supremacy of the
executive and puts
premium on the value
of pagdamay
► metaphor for the body
politic
► Aguinaldo, Quezon,
Laurel, Marcos
► legitimation for
authoritarianism;
partyless democracy
The Philippine Presidency:
Democratization
1. transitional – teleological process
towards democratic consolidation
2. changeless – no real process or
progress, same-same
3. cyclical - regime establishment,
development, challenge, decay, and
new regime
Arguments
• Presidential Regimes and Presidential
Time
• Campaign Narratives and Presidential
Narratives
• Narrative Cycles in the Post Marcos
Philippine Presidency
• Making Narratives Stick: The Role of
Strategic Players and Coalition-building
Presidential Regimes
• a president ascends to power within a particular
set of institutions or “regime” that largely
shapes the presidential style of leadership.
• Regime – “commitments of ideology and interest
embodied in pre-existing institutional
arrangements.”
• Presidents find themselves facing different
obstacles to leadership based on their relation to
existing “regimes”
• Presidents are either builders, consolidators,
articulators, or repudiators
Presidential Time
• The recurrence of regime orientations
creates a structured context for presidential
leadership within a pattern of “political
time.”
• Political Time – “medium through which
presidents received commitments of
ideology and interest and claim authority to
intervene in their development.”
• Successive presidents can face dramatically
distinct political and institutional
challenges.
Presidential Leadership:
Configuration & Choice
• Presidential actions are determined by
historically-articulated institutional
configurations.
• But these configurations determine
context, they do not determine action
• Presidents face strategic choices –
choices given by institutionally
configured situations
Narratives
Narratives - stories or discourses with a clear
sequential order that connect events in a meaningful
way. (Hinchman & Hinchman 1997)
Political Narratives – narratives (i.e. "populist", "richversus-poor" and "reformist", "good governance“)
used by politicians in the context of electoral
democracy in the Philippines (Thompson 2010)
Two Types: Campaign and Presidential Narratives
Cycle of Narratives: reformist, developmentalist, and
populist
The Philippine Presidency: Within
the Prism of Political Time
Foundational Regimes
1st Republic (1899Definitive Regimes
1901)
American Colonial
(1898-1943, 1945-46)
3rd Republic (19461972)
2nd Republic (1943-45)
4th Republic (19721986)
Prevailing Regime
5th Republic (1986present)
Transitional Challenges Under the
Post-Marcos Presidency
The Great Repudiator - founder of EDSA regime
Orthodox Innovator - competent ally
Populist Challenger - Marcos revivalist
Apostate – born from EDSA, mutated into Marcos
The Loyal Son – heir to the EDSA legacy
Role of Strategic Groups
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Business – protectionist vs. global
Church – conservative vs. progressive
Civil Society – radical vs. moderate
Military – professional vs. adventurists
Politicians – traditional vs. issue-oriented
Making Narratives Stick
Strong Narrative, Stable Coalition
Strong Narrative, from Weak to Strong Coalition
Strong Narrative - from Strong to Weak Coalition
From Strong to Weak Narrative, Stable Coalition
Strong Narrative, Weakening Coalition?
Post-Marcos Presidency & the
EDSA Regime
Thank you very much!