Axelrod Energy Projects LLC www.axelrodenergyprojects.com 1 Outlook for Iraqi Crude Oil Production and Exports Muayyad Al-Chalabi Axelrod Energy Projects LLC Columbia University School of International and Public Affairs December 3, 2012 Axelrod Energy Projects LLC www.axelrodenergyprojects.com Overview • • • • • Brief history of the Iraqi oil sector Iraqi reserves Development contracts Infrastructure development Challenges – Internal – External • Conclusion Axelrod Energy Projects LLC www.axelrodenergyprojects.com 3 Brief history of Iraqi oil sector • 1912: Establishment of the Turkish Petroleum Company to negotiate an oil concession from the Ottoman Empire • 1920: TPC receives concession from the British Mandate in Iraq. • 1927: Oil struck near Baba Gurgur. Broad international participation in the TPC. – 75 year term for exploration rights – Iraqi government would receive royalties on production, but royalties contingent on oil company profits, and not payable for the first 20 years • 1930: 70-year concession negotiated by the Iraq Petroleum Company (IPC) • 1932: British mandate ends, but Hashemite monarchy maintains a pro-western stance. Axelrod Energy Projects LLC www.axelrodenergyprojects.com 4 Brief history (continued) • 1951: Mossaddegh nationalizes oil operations in Iran. British led embargo on Iranian oil. Mossadegh overthrown in 1953. • 1958: Hashemite Kingdom overthrown by Abd al-Karim Qasim • 1959: Qasim withdraws Iraq from Baghdad Pact • 1960: Iraq helps found OPEC. Qasim threatens legislation to revoke a large portion of the concession granted to the IPC. • 1963: Qasim ousted in Ramadan Revolution. • 1968: Ba’ath Party rises to power. • 1972: IPC nationalized Axelrod Energy Projects LLC www.axelrodenergyprojects.com 5 Brief history (continued) • 1979: Saddam Hussein assumes presidency • 1980–1988: Iran-Iraq War • 1990–1991: Gulf War I. – 1990–2003: Sanctions on Iraq. No-fly zones enforced. – 1995–2003: UN Oil-for-Food Program • 2003–2011: Gulf War II – 2007: The military surge Axelrod Energy Projects LLC www.axelrodenergyprojects.com 6 0 Axelrod Energy Projects LLC www.axelrodenergyprojects.com The "Surge" (2007) IOC reentry (2008) Gulf War II (2003) Oil-for-Food Program (1996) Invasion of Kuwait (1990) Gulf War I (1991) Iran-Iraq War ends (1988) Saddam Hussein (1979) Iran-Iraq War (1980) IPC nationalized (1972) Ba'ath Party (1968) Ramadan Revolution (1963) OPEC formed (1960) Qasim Coup (1958) Iraq oil production (1958-2012, kb/d) 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 7 Iraq proven oil reserves Iraq Historical Proven Reserves (billion barrels) 160 Oil Reserves in the ME by Country (million barrels) Country 2012 140 Saudi Arabia 264,520 120 Iran 151,170 100 Iraq 143,100 80 Kuwait 101,500 60 UAE 97,800 40 Qatar 25,380 Oman 5,500 Syria 2,500 Yemen 3,000 20 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 0 Axelrod Energy Projects LLC www.axelrodenergyprojects.com 8 Iraqi oil fields Fields Axelrod Energy Projects LLC Region Reserves (bbl) West Qurna South 43.0 Rumaila South 17.0 Majnoon South 12.6 Kirkuk North 8.6 East Baghdad Middle 8.1 Halfaya South 4.1 Zubair South 4.0 Missan Middle 2.5 Bai Hassan North 2.3 Najmah North 0.9 Gharaf Middle 0.9 Qayarah North 0.8 Other 38.2 Total 143.0 www.axelrodenergyprojects.com 9 Oil Development Contracts • Iraq model contract Type Ownership of Extraction Rights Ownership of Production Concession IOC IOC Joint Venture Shared Shared Production Sharing State Shared Services Contract State State Axelrod Energy Projects LLC – 20 year service agreement – Government has 25% stake in operating company, IOCs have remaining 75% stake – Government pays the operating company a fixed fee of ~$2 per barrel for oil produced. – IOC not granted exclusive rights to either exploration or production www.axelrodenergyprojects.com 10 Iraq oil development contracts First Round (2009) Second Round (2010) Field Region IOC Rumaila South BP, CNPC 1,750 West Quarna South EM, Shell Zubair South Misan South Axelrod Energy Projects LLC PPT (kb/d) Field Region IOC Majnoon South 600 Halfaya South ENI, Occidental, Kogas 400 Qaiyarah North Shell, Petronas CNPC, Total, Petronas, Sonangol South CNOOC 275 West Qurna (II) Garraf Badra East Najmah North South www.axelrodenergyprojects.com Lukoil, Statoil Petronas, Japex Gazprom, Kogas, Petronas, TPAO Sonangol PPT (kb/d) 1,800 535 120 1,800 230 170 110 11 Infrastructure expansion • Pipeline overhaul and construction – Construction of new on-shore pipelines (6,000 km) – Construction of new off-shore pipelines (300 km) • Oil storage expansion – Final storage capacity of 60 million barrels – Add 20 million barrels to existing facilities – Build new tank farms with 30 million barrels • Common seawater supply facility (12-15 mb/d) Axelrod Energy Projects LLC www.axelrodenergyprojects.com 12 Pipeline infrastructure Axelrod Energy Projects LLC www.axelrodenergyprojects.com 13 Loading terminal infrastructure • Loading terminal expansion – Final capacity of 4.8 mb/d – Expand existing loading terminals with an additional capacity of 1.6 mb/d – Construct 4 new single point moorings (SPMs) with a total capacity of 3.2 mb/d Axelrod Energy Projects LLC www.axelrodenergyprojects.com 14 Iraq crude oil production • In July 2012, Iraq becomes second largest producer of oil in OPEC at 3 mb/d • Robust production growth since 2007 – Improved security environment since 2007 – IOC investments since 2009 • Iraqi government officially projecting 12 mb/d by 2017. – By comparison, Saudi Arabia’s total production capacity is 12 mb/d, with actual production between 8-10 mb/d. – Production targets written into contracts with IOCs total 8.8 mb/d. Axelrod Energy Projects LLC www.axelrodenergyprojects.com 15 Iraq oil production and exports Iraq oil production and exports (kb/d) – Small domestic refining capacity – No new domestic refining capacity expected until 2019 – Small domestic power generation demand • Any additional crude production to be exported 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 Exports 1,500 1,000 500 Domestic Use 0 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 • Robust production growth • Domestic demand Consumption Axelrod Energy Projects LLC www.axelrodenergyprojects.com Production 16 Internal challenges KRG territory • Lack of a comprehensive hydrocarbon law • Dispute with the Kurdistan Regional Government – KRG has its own hydrocarbon law, and has negotiated independent contracts with IOCs on that basis • Baghdad has banned IOCs doing business with the KRG from bidding on any future contracts Axelrod Energy Projects LLC www.axelrodenergyprojects.com 17 External challenges • OPEC production quotas – Iraq exempt since 1998 – Iraq’s production quota has been absorbed by Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Venezuela, and others – Iraq set to reenter the production quota system in 2014. – Conflicting interests • Need to maintain prices (total production quota cannot rise significantly). Iraq needs $90 per barrel crude in order to meet budgetary requirements. • Need to carve out a space for Iraq in the production quota system Axelrod Energy Projects LLC www.axelrodenergyprojects.com 18 External challenges • Historical rivalry with Iran – Growth in Iraq oil exports has gone to fill the gap left by sanctions on Iran – Iran is currently the number two country (both in terms of reserves and production quota) in OPEC – Traditionally, Iran has maintained parity with Iraq in OPEC. – Currently cooperative relationship with Iran may deteriorate rapidly if Iraqi production and exports grow rapidly – Iran has effective control over the Straight of Hormuz • Security of pipeline routes to the Mediterranean – Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline is frequent target for Kurdish separatists. – Pipeline to Syria will not materialize in the short run – Pipeline through Jordan makes no strategic difference. Axelrod Energy Projects LLC www.axelrodenergyprojects.com 19 External challenges • Softening demand – Slow growth in European markets – Slowing growth in Asian markets • Rising supply in North America • Shale oil backing out imported conventional oil • North America moving towards energy independence Axelrod Energy Projects LLC www.axelrodenergyprojects.com 20 Axelrod Energy Projects LLC www.axelrodenergyprojects.com 21