Republic of the Philippines Department of Education National Capital Region DIVISION OF CITY SCHOOLS – MANILA Manila Education Center Arroceros Forest Park Antonio J. Villegas St. Ermita, Manila Trends, Networks, and Critical Thinking in the 21st Century Culture Understanding Trends and How They Go Trending Quarter 1- Week 2 Module 2 Most Essential Learning Competencies: Identify parts of trend as a whole; Identify and explain an emerging pattern; and; Identify causes and consequences. HOW TO USE THIS MODULE Before starting the module, I want you to set aside other tasks that will disturb you while enjoying the lessons. Read the simple instructions below to successfully enjoy the objectives of this kit. Have fun! 1. Follow carefully all the contents and instructions indicated in every page of this module. 2. Write the concepts about the lessons in your notebook. Writing enhances learning that is important to develop and keep in mind. 3. 4. 5. 6. Perform all the provided activities in the module. Let your facilitator/guardian assess your answers using the answer key card. Analyze conceptually the posttest and apply what you have learned. Enjoy studying! PARTS OF THE MODULE • Expectations - These are what you will be able to know after completing the lessons in the module. • Pre-test - This will measure your prior knowledge and the concepts to be mastered throughout the lesson. • Looking Back to Your Lesson - This section will measure the learnings and skills you understood from the previous lesson. • Brief Introduction - This section will give you an overview of the lesson. • Discussion - This section provides a short explanation of the lesson. This aims • to help you discover and understand new concepts and skills. Activities - This is a set of activities you will perform with a partner. • Remember - This section summarizes the concepts and applications of the lessons. • Check Your Understanding - It will verify how you have learned from the lesson. • Post-test - This will measure how much you have learned from the entire module. EXPECTATIONS You will understand the elements, characteristics, and process of the emerging pattern of megatrend. Specifically, this module will help you to 1 • • • understand megatrends, identify megatrends that are subsumed in the six categories through identifying its counter trends, and elaborate what game changers can innovate to transform the society. Let us start your journey in learning more on Trends and Fads. I am sure you are ready and excited to answer the Pretest. Smile and cheer up! PRETEST Directions: Choose the letter of the best answer and write it on a separate sheet of paper. 1. Which of the following is a long-term process of transformation with a broad scope and a huge impact? They are also considered powerful factors and transformative forces in shaping future conditions. A. fads B. microtrends C. macrotrends D. megatrends 2. The followings are the categories of megatrends that create implication bringing them both risks and opportunities EXCEPT: A. Intensity of People’s Impact B. Advancements in Science and Technology C. Shifts in Human Densities and Movements D. Changes in the Earth’s Geology and Ecosystem 3. Which of the following is a phenomenon which is born in small communities with a clear identity, most often in opposition to the mainstream, and in the long run, may transform into more mass trends? A. fads B. microtrends C. macrotrends D. megatrends 4. Which of the following conscious acts from humans direct the course of a megatrend? They can be people, organizations, or entities that see a new way to turn the course in favor of growth and development. A. Innovators B. Game changers C. Government D. Stockholders 5. What are the counter megatrends of climate change today as part of the trend? A. Advancements in Science and Technology B. Shifts in Human Densities and Movements C. Development in the Sociocultural Landscape D. Changes in the Earth’s Geology and Ecosystem 2 LOOKING BACK TO YOUR LESSON True or False On the blank, write True if the statement is correct, and False if not. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. Fads can sustain trends. Teleserye is an example of a fad. Fads have predictable rise and fall. Friendster is an example of a trend. We innovate lifestyle through trends and fads, Fads fade when the perception of novelty is gone. Trends and fads are crucial in the human evolutionary process. Fads are sustained behavior that turns into lifestyle, mindset ad values. 9. Humans create fads and trends, and at the same time are influenced by them. 10. Globalization links people together and open new ways of communicating and creating new goods and services. Trends and fads mirror the changing world and our capacity to respond to cultural, social, political, economic, and geographical changes. Our reaction to trends and fads allows us to discover talents and develop faculties resulting to the creation and reproduction of things and behaviors crucial to human existence and way of life. Today, global connectivity using different forms of social media encourages more people to make and remake trends and fads regardless of age, ethnicity, gender, and socioeconomic status across the globe. As a member of this complex world, how will you challenge yourself to innovate changes in trends to transform your lives? BRIEF INTRODUCTION Fads come and go. Trends come and stay. To appreciate the emergence of fads, we have tackled products and how they come to rise and disappear in the market. While fads experience a momentary gust of popularity, trends adapt to the environment by employing various strategies. Because of this, global institutions, governments, and organizations employ the idea of a megatrend because just seeing a trend is not enough. It has become essential to see the larger picture, so the society needs to grasp the ideas of a megatrend and how trends emerge from it. In this lesson, the concept of Megatrend will be discussed to understand more the long-term trends in society. 3 DISCUSSIONS Lesson 1 Megatrends and Game Changers Megatrends It is a large, social, economic, political, environmental or technological change that is slow to form. Once in place, megatrends influence a wide range of activities, processes, and perception; both in government and in society, possibly for decades (Saritas, 2011). They are the underlying forces that drive trends. It is long-term processes of transformation with a broad scope and a huge impact. They are considered powerful factors in shaping future conditions (Frost and Sullivan, 2018). Megatrends are powerful transformative forces that could change the global economy, business and society (Gujit, 2020). It has been changing the way we live for centuries. Megatrends differ from trends in three ways 1. Time horizon- It expands over decades. 2. Reach- It has comprehensive impact on all geographic regions and results in multidimensional transformations of all societal subsystems such as political, societal, economical, technological, and environmental. 3. Intensity of Impact- Megatrends have a powerful and extensive impact on all types of actors: government, individuals and organizations. Categories of Megatrends Moody (2005) sees megatrends as always in the scale of the global, emerging as “macroeconomic and geostrategic forces that are shaping our world and our collective futures in profound ways”. These forces create implications that are far-ranging and varied, bringing with them both risks and opportunities. 1. Shifts in Human Densities and Movements- This refers to changes in population sizes, migration, ethnic and racial compositions of societies, birth rates, mortality and morbidity rates even geographic distribution of groups. 2. Changes in Economic Systems- This reflects changes in market behavior in the manner of exchange of good and services between low, middle, and high income - among regions and capital outflows - among nations and continents. The effect and impact of these changes can be felt globally. 3. Changes in Political Structures and the Rise of Social Movements- This refers to the shifts in the power configurations among nations and regions. It may also reflect in the conduct of governance and citizen representation. Examples of which could be changes in the forms of government and new strategies of revolutionary movements, such as openness to options for negotiated peace settlements instead of waging protracted guerilla wars. 4 4. Advancements in Science and Technology- It denotes research and development in various fields of the physical and natural sciences, as well as new inventions, herald a new future that is more reliant to these advances. 5. Development in the Sociocultural Landscape- This could be shifts in the value systems or the emergence of new values and social practices, thus leading towards a reorientation of the moral compass. 6. Changes in the Earth’s Geology and Ecosystems- This covers the environmental pressure caused by development, including fuel emissions, loss of forests, the increasing impact of climate change manifested by the warning of the increased temperatures of oceans and the atmosphere, even the rising sea level. Example of Megatrends and Trends Category Demographic Shifts Megatrend Aging Population Scientific and Technological Development Changes in Political Conditions Societal and Cultural Shifts Economic Dynamics Privacy and Security Issues Participatory democracy Redefinition of family Increase in global trade Trend Rising healthcare expenditures Growing role of wireless tracking Growing amount of fake news Increasement of singleheaded households Reduction of production costs via offshoring Classification of Trends • Megatrends- are events that occur over a longer period, and of which we can be sure about. They have an influence on all the aspects of life. • Macrotrends- are specific variations of megatrends. They describe partial trends that feature a different degree of effectiveness. • Microtrends- phenomena that are born in small communities with a clear identity, most often in opposition to the mainstream in the long run, they may transform into more mass trends. • https://www.bigsurpartners.com/2017/07/12/mega-trends-their-impact-2/ Fads-opposite of trends. They only keep for a short period of time. 5 Game changers Game changers are conscious acts from humans to direct the course of a megatrend. They can be people, organizations, or entities that see a new way to turn the course in favor of growth and development. These innovations open a new avenue of change and transforms the landscape. They can also be big leaders articulating and implementing big ideas. Game changers are always transformational. For example, in the field of women’s health, the emergence of contraceptives changed the playing field for women’s health, articulating the idea that their bodies are not only for procreation. ACTIVITIES Activity 1.1. Matching Categories to Trends and Megatrends (Critical Thinking) Objectives: To understand megatrends and counter trends through identifying their categories. Directions: Using the six categories, choose the suggested counter megatrends that fall under each category. Include your own examples of trends. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Categories Shifts in Human Densities and Movements Changes in Economic Systems Changes in Political Structures and the Rise of Social Movements Advancements in science and technology Development in the Sociocultural landscape Changes in the Earth’s Geology and Ecosystems Megatrends Trends COUNTER MEGATRENDS: Aging Population Reduction of production costs via offshoring Privacy and Security Issue Increasement of single-headed households Growing number of fake news Participatory democracy 6 Growing role of wireless tracking Increase in global trade Rising healthcare expenditures Endangered and Threatened Species Loss of biodiversity Redefinition of family ACTIVITIES Activity 1.2. The World in 2030: Megatrends to Watch Out (Critical Thinking, Communication, Character) Objectives: To analyze megatrends ten years from now and countering its disabling effects. Directions: Using the MEGATREND Newspaper, analyze the article of Mr. Andrew Winston about megatrends in the next ten years. How will you contribute to sustain its positive effects and how will you counter its advance effects? You may answer these questions in a separate sheet of paper. THE WORLD IN 2030: MEGATRENDS TO WATCH OUT Andrew S. Winston, founder of Winston Eco-Strategies and an adviser to multinationals on how they can navigate humanity’s biggest challenges and profit from solving them, asked by his client to paint a picture of what the big trends tell us about 2030. According to him, the directions we go and choices we make will have enormous impacts on our lives, careers, businesses, and the world. Here are his predictions of how nine important trends will evolve by 2030: Demographics: There will be about 1 billion more of us, and we will live longer. The fastest growing demographic will be the elderly, with the population of people over 65 years old at 1 billion by 2030. Most of those new billion will be in the middle class economically, as the percentage of citizens in dire poverty continues to drop. Urbanization: Two-thirds of us will live in cities. Countervailing forces will include a rising cost of living in the most desirable cities. The effects will include the need for more big buildings with better management technologies Transparency: Our world will become even more open — and less private. The amount of information collected will grow exponentially, and the pressure to share that information with customers and consumers in particular will expand but all these tools will shatter privacy in the process. Climate Crisis: The climate will continue to change quickly and feature regular, extreme weather everywhere. The melting of the major ice sheets will be literally inundating most coastal cities, and we’re truly approaching an “Uninhabitable Earth” in our lifetimes. Resource Pressures: We will be forced to more aggressively confront resource constraints. Water will be a stressed resource, and it seems likely that many cities will be constantly in a state of water shortage. Clean Tech: The transformation of our grid, our roadways, and our buildings to zero-carbon technology will be 7 surprisingly far along. Electric vehicles will be a large part of the transportation equation. Renewable energy is dramatically on the rise because of the strict legislation banning fossil-fuel engines Technology Shifts: The internet of things will have won the day, and every new device will be connected. AI and machine learning will plan much of our lives and make us more efficient, well beyond choosing driving routes to optimize traffic. Technology will manipulate us Global Policy: There’s an open question about how we’ll get important things done. Predicting politics is nearly impossible, and it’s hard to imagine how global policy action on climate and other megatrends will play out. Populism: The rise of nationalism and radicalism may increase. Even less certain than policy is the support, or lack thereof, of the mass of people for different philosophies of governing. Reference: https://sloanreview.mit.edu/article /the-world-in-2030-ninemegatrends-to-watch/ ACTIVITIES Activity 1.3. Local Trends (Critical Thinking, Communication, Character) Objectives: To analyze megatrends ten years from now and countering its disabling effects. Directions: Give an example of trends, if possible, local trends and its implication to the society. Also, identify the mega changers or its innovations that open up a new avenue of change. 1. Trends Implications Mega Changers 2. 3. Guide Questions: 1. What are the issues or opportunities brought by the trends you wrote in the table? 2. How do mega changers respond to them? CHECK YOUR UNDERSTANDING ESSAY WRITING You have learned about the megatrends from the previous discussion. As an individual good citizen, you have to make yourself aware in different trends in the society because they help people to survive. To have a clear idea of these concepts, you must perform the task given below. Directions: Write an essay about the global megatrend that we will encounter in the future. Title: “Megatrends Defining Our Future: Are You Ready?” 8 Rubrics for Essay Writing https://www.pinterest.ph/pin/560346378629529172/ REMEMBER • Megatrend is an interdisciplinary long-term trend that will determine the future for a large part of the world. It may be slow to form but exhibits a transformative, sometimes dramatic, impact on a broad array of human activities, processes, and perceptions, both in government and in society. • Megatrends differ from trends in three ways namely time horizon, reach and intensity of impact. • There are six categories of megatrends that are shaping our world and our collective futures in profound ways. These are Shifts in Human Densities and Movements, Changes in Economic Systems, Changes in Political Structures and the Rise of Social Movements, Advancements in Science and Technology, Development in the Sociocultural landscape and Changes in the Earth’s Geology and Ecosystems. • There are four classification of macrotrends and megatrends. • Game changers can be people, organizations, or entities that see a new way to turn the course in favor of growth and development. They can open a new avenue of change and transforms the landscape. They can also be big leaders articulating and implementing big ideas. 9 trends namely: fads, microtrends, POST TEST Directions: Multiple Choice. Choose the letter of the best answer. Write the chosen letter in a separate sheet of paper. 1. Which of the following classifications of trends occurs over a longer period of time and of which we can be sure about? A. fads B. microtrends C. macrotrends D. megatrends 2. The following concepts are megatrend under the categories of Advancements in Science and Technology EXCEPT: A. Melting of Major Ice Sheets B. Advance Research and Inventions C. Growing Role of Wireless Tracking D. Manipulating Routes to Optimize Traffic 3. Which of the following classifications of trends has specific variations of megatrends which also describes partial trends that feature a different degree of effectiveness? A. fads B. microtrends C. macrotrends D. megatrends 4. Which of the following conscious acts from humans direct the course of a megatrend? They can be people, organizations, or entities that see a new way to turn the course in favor of growth and development. A. Innovators B. Game changers C. Government D. Stakeholders 5. What are the counter megatrends of emergence of new values and social practices today as part of the trend? A. Advancements in Science and Technology B. Shifts in Human Densities and Movements C. Development in the Sociocultural Landscape D. Changes in the Earth’s Geology and Ecosystem 10 REFERENCES Online Sources: Frost & Sulliva. (2018). World’s Top Global Mega Trends To 2025 and Implications to Business, Society and Cultures. Retrieved from https://www.thegeniusworks.com/wpcontent/uploads/2016/01/Megatrends-2025-Frost-and-Sullivan.pdf Blackrock Inc. (2018). Megatrends. https://www.blackrock.com/sg/en/investmentideas/themes/megatrends. Retrieved from Group 8- MBA 13. (2018). Megatrends. Retrieved from http://mba13group8.weebly.com/classification-of-megatrends.html Gujit, 2020. Global Megatrends: Mapping the forces that affect us all. Retrieved from https://oxfamilibrary.openrepository.com/bitstream/handle/1054 6/620942/dp- global-megatrends-mapping-forces-affect-us-all-310120en.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y. Megatrend and Trends (2018). Retrieved from http://futureoriented.eu/courses/module-3/lessons/module-3-lesson2-methods-for-trends-identification-and-analysis/topic/topic-1megatrends-and-trends/ Saritas O. (2011). The Big Picture – trends, drivers, wild cards, discontinuities and weak signals, Futures. Retrieved from http://www.foresightplatform.eu/community/forlearn/how-to-doforesight/methods/analysis/megatrend-trend-driver-issue/. Books: Ariloa, M. (2016). Trends, Networks, and Critical Thinking in the 21st Century. Unlimited Books Library and Services Publishing Inc. First Edition. Arzadon, M., (et al). (2018). Trends, Networks, and Critical Thinking. Vibal Group Inc. Mangiduyos, G. (2016). Trends, Networks, and Critical Thinking in the 21st Century. Rex Bookstore. First Edition. 11 Acknowledgements Writer: Paulyne Joanne R. Pascual, T-III Editor: Amalia C. Solis - EPS Reviewers: Mark Lester C. Cuayzon, MT II (Content), Restituto G. Lumacang Jr., T-III (Language) Management Team: Maria Magdalena M. Lim-Schools Division Superintendent-Manila, Aida H. Rondilla-Chief Education Supervisor Lucky S. Carpio-EPS and Lady Hannah C. Gillo, Librarian II-LRMS 12 REFLECTIVE LEARNING SHEET Name ____________________________________________ Grade and Section ___________ School: ______________________ Date: _____________ Subj. Teacher: _______________ Quarter: Module No.: 1st 2 Week No.: 2 MELC: Identify and explain an emerging pattern Objectives: To address an acceptance speech as a trend spotter that helps you define what and who you are. Topic: Megatrends and Game Changers Acceptance Speech Imagine yourself being an award recipient. You have won an award entitled, “Outstanding Trend Spotter of the Decade”. Your task now is to write an acceptance speech. In it, you must tell how the knowledge you have acquired as a trend spotter helped you become what and who you are. 13
