Money, Banking, and Finance Learning Goals After today‘s lecture, yall will be able to: – Describe the consequences of inflation and deflation. – Describe the functions and types of money. – Describe the measures of the money supply – Explain how banks create money. – Describe the categories and functions of nonbank financial institutions. – Explain the concept of “speculative bubble” and illustrate it with concrete examples. 2 Chapter Outline Why Money? 2. What is Money? 3. The Banking System 4. Money and Finance 1. 3 Why Money: Making Transactions Easier Imagine there was no money: – You would need to barter – If you want to get a certain good which you don‘t have and want to exchange something else, you need to find someone who wants just the opposite exchange – Sometimes, goods are not easily divisible (imagine you want to get some eggs, but only have a cow) 4 Money and Aggregate Demand Imagine you want to buy a house or make an investment, but do not have the means to do so You go to a bank and ask for a loan If the bank gives you a loan, you will buy the house If the bank does not give you a loan or conditions are too harsh, you will walk away not buying the house Hence, if the government can influence credit conditions, it can influence aggregate demand! 5 Some More Basic Thoughts About Money: This, however, is only true if inflation is low to moderate In some cases, inflation becomes so high that money is not generally accepted anymore In these cases, people might resort to barter as money would lose value to quickly barter: exchange of goods, services, or assets directly for other goods, services, or assets, without the use of money. 6 Where Do Hyperinflations Come From? Hyperinflation usually happens if the government starts using the printing press to pay for its expenditure (because it does not manage to collect sufficient revenue) If the economy is large and growing and there are not too many newly printed bills, the money usually is just absorbed However, if the governments prints too much money, there will be hyperinflation – Germany 1920s – Hungary in 1946 – Zimbabwe in 2007 – Kebabistan in 2021-2022 7 What is the Danger of a Hyperinflation in Europe Today? No real danger Governments are not allowed to use the printing press to pay for their deficit (EU treaty) Even (recently agreed) purchases of government bonds by the ECB are limited Money in modern, developed economies comes into existence by other means (via the banking system) 8 Why is Inflation Disliked Even if it is Lower? It redistributes from creditors to debtors It might wipe out savings It makes planning difficult It hurts those with nominally fixed incomes (people on unemployment assistant, pensioners etc.) It creates “menu” costs 9 What About Falling Prices – Do They Bring Problems as Well? Deflation: when the aggregate price level falls Wealth is redistributed from debtors to creditors Debtors tend to be those who spend more – firms are usually debtors This might lead to bankruptcies and problems in the banking sector People might postpone spending There might thus be problems for aggregate demand 10 What is Money? We usually define money by its functions: – Medium of Exchange—promotes economic efficiency by minimizing time spent in exchanging goods and services • • • • Must be widely accepted Must be divisible Must be easy to carry Must not deteriorate quickly – Store of Value — used to save purchasing power; most liquid of all assets but loses value during inflation – Unit of Account — used to measure value in the economy 11 What is NOT Money? A lot of things you might in everyday life call “money” is NOT money in the eyes of economists – Income: If someone has a high income (“he earns a lot of money”), you would call this income, not money – Wealth: If someone has a lot of stocks or bonds, he does not have money in the economic meaning of the term 12 Types of Money Commodity money: something that contains intrinsic value and is used in exchange – Coins made of gold or silver; sometimes cigarettes developed into a medium of exchange in hard times – To be used as money, a commodity must be generally acceptable, standardized, durable, portable, scarce, and, preferably, easily divisible 13 The System of Gold-Backed Currencies Gold and silver coins inconvenient to carry around in large quantities Paper monies were issued representing claims on actual commodities Starting in the late 1830s, most European countries had their national currencies by law backed by gold Exchange rate between different currencies was computed from their respective value relative to gold, and international transactions were finally settled in gold reserves System of gold-backed currencies broke down with the start of World War I 14 What is the Basis of Value of the Coins and Euro Banknotes we use Today? The basis of value is—precisely and no more than—the expectation that the euro bill will be acceptable in exchange. Fiat money – A euro bill is money because the government declares it to be money – Fiat money possesses exchange value – The value of the goods or services that such money can pay for in the market 15 Nowadays, You Are Likely to Make Many of Your Transactions by Other Means Type of money which is purely based on a promise to pay by someone other than the central bank, is called credit money – Your deposit in a checking account 16 Figure 11.1 The Liquidity Continuum Items more to the left are more liquid or, in other words, more easily used to purchase something of value. The farther to the right on this continuum, the less liquid the item is. Currency is as liquid as it gets, and real estate is usually about the most difficult asset to convert to money (seldom taking less than a few months). More Liquid Currency Checking Account Liquidity Continuum Less Liquid Share of Stock Real Estate Precious Metal 17 Do You Use Money if You Use a Credit Card to Make a Purchase? No! one is taking out a temporary loan from the credit card company only one day a month, when you send a check or electronic transfer to your credit card company from your checking account, you make a “money” transaction 18 Bank Deposits and Money Dank deposits fulfill the criteria for money – Store of value – Widely accepted in payment – Unit of account But: deposits have a different degree of liquidity; not all can be used for payment What do we count as money? – Pragmatic solution: different monetary aggregates which include bank deposits with different kinds of maturities 19 Monetary Aggregates: The Example of the euro area, in Billion € Mid 2009 Cash in Circulation March 2013 733.6 866.7 + Overnight Deposits 3606.7 4336.0 = M1 4340.3 5202.7 + Deposits with agreed maturity up to 2 years 2134.9 1784.9 + Deposits redeemable at a period of notice up to 3 month 1722.9 2102.2 = M2 8198.2 9089.7 + Repurchase agreements 331.0 122.3 + Money market fund (MMF) shares/units 745.0 457.8 + Debt securities up to 2 years 171.8 140.0 9445.9 9809.9 = M3 20 The Banking System Table 11.1 A Simplified Balance Sheet of a Commercial Bank Assets Liabilities Reserves €10 million Government bonds €20 million Loans €70 million Deposits €100 million bank reserves: funds not loaned out by a private bank, but kept as vault cash or as deposit at the central bank In most countries, banks are required to keep some share of their deposits as reserves – this is called required reserves 22 How Commercial Banks Earn Profits Government bonds – Earn interest by lending money to national governments – Relatively safe and liquid Portfolio of loans – Funds that are owed to the bank by businesses, households, nonprofits, or nonfederal levels of government – Less liquid than government bonds – Major asset and major way to make earnings 23 Table 11.2 Bank Types Chief Functions Retail banks Safekeeping of money, checking accounts, loans Savings banks Similar to retail bank but specializing in loans, particularly mortgages and loans to small and medium sized businesses Cooperative banks Same as a retail bank, but cooperatively owned by customers Private banks Caters almost exclusively to high net worth individuals; functions extend beyond traditional banking into variety of financial services Investment banks No traditional banking functions; involved in underwriting and issuing securities, assistance with company mergers and acquisitions, market making, and general advice to corporations Universal banks Covering both investment and retail banking services Central banks Overseeing the monetary stability of the national economy by setting interest rates and providing liquidity to commercial banks 24 How Commercial Banks Create Money When a commercial bank decides to make a loan, it credits the amount to the checking account – With the stroke of a key, deposit money is created! – This increases M1 Hence, commercial banks can create money! 25 The Central Bank and Commercial Banks‘ Money Creation In the euro area (and other jurisdictions), commercial banks are required to hold a certain share of their deposits as reserves Banks need to borrow these reserves – From other banks – From the ECB These reserves do not need to be available at the time when a deposit or a loan is made, but have to be put in the account within a certain time If commercial banks need cash, they have to borrow it from the ECB 26 Central Bank Borrower Commercial Bank A Commercial Bank B Bank makes loan Increase Money Supply M1 27 reserves do not need to be available at the time when a deposit or a loan is made! Central Bank Commercial Bank hold certain share of deposits at Central Bank or Bank A/B borrows from Central Bank against collateral and interest rate Borrower Reserve Requirement Commercial Bank A Commercial Bank B Bank makes loan Bank A/B borrows reserves from Bank B/A 28 Central Bank CB provides cash Commercial Bank provides collateral and pays interest Commercial Bank A Borrower Commercial Bank B ATM Commercial Bank provides Cash NO increase in M1 29 Money and Finance Functions of Finance Provision of money to support investment in real capital Portfolio investment, i.e. investing funds in securities such as stocks or bonds another form of saving, a means of postponing consumption 31 Speculation as Investment Exploit changes in prices to achieve short-term profit Economic impact of risking their own funds is limited Speculators may borrow money in order to exploit what they see as market opportunities based on short-term price movements Leverage—investments based on borrowed funds 32 Nonbank Financial Institutions a financial institution that performs a number of services similar to those offered by banks but that is not a licensed bank and is not subject to banking regulations An industry that has been growing in size and importance relative to banking Activities do not directly affect the money supply Loans from these entities, unlike transactions using bank accounts, are not liquid “nonmoney assets” 33 Nonbank Financial Institutions Collective investment vehicle or pooled fund – an investment vehicle that pools investments from many different sources, making investment decisions for them all as a group Index fund – a type of pooled fund that tries to replicate a common stock or bond market index. As this fund does not require active management by a manager, fees are usually lower than in other types of pooled funds Hedge fund – a type of pooled fund that often engages in highly speculative investments and to which access is generally restricted to wealthy clients 34 Nonbank Financial Institutions Pension fund – a fund with the exclusive purpose of paying retirement benefits Insurance company – a company that pays to cover all or part of the cost of specific risks against which individuals and companies chose to insure themselves Reinsurer – a company that sells insurance to insurance companies to share the risk in case of large damages caused e.g. through natural disasters. 35 Nonbank Financial Institutions Securities broker – an agent responsible for finding a buyer for sellers of different securities, thereby offering enhanced liquidity to the seller Building society – a financial institution which collects savings from its customers and offers them at preferential rates to other customers so that they can buy or build a residence Shadow bank – credit intermediation that involves entities and activities outside the regular banking system 36 Modern Economies Are Much More Dependent Than Ever on Finance In the euro area, total financial assets banking sector roughly doubled from 2003 to 2013 to a total of €57 trillion (almost six times euro area annual GDP) In the UK and US, financial assets have surpassed the equivalent of ten times the respective national GDP Financial transactions is even larger. For the U.S., this value was 73 times GDP already in 2009, primarily a result of rapid growth in high-frequency trading 37 Is Too Much Finance Bad for the Economy? When economies grow on the basis of mass investment in assets with questionable foundations, yet rise in price, the growth is unstable and destined to be of short duration Such irrational speculative price rises are called bubbles 38 The Dutch Tulip Frenzy (Tulip Mania) 1636-37 Different tulip types had different values Mass speculation – first: only wealthy Dutch were buying them – eventually, everyone was buying tulips Rapid increase in prices – peak: March 1637 – some select bulbs sold for several times the yearly income of a skilled craftsman – shortly thereafter, confidence in their value vanished Almost overnight, the tulip market crashed, and many speculators were ruined. 39 Stock Market Bubble 1929 “new reality” – establishment of the Federal Reserve in 1913 – government policies to extend free trade, fight inflation, relaxation of antitrust laws 1920s: everyone is buying shares – consumer debt was taken on to buy stock shares (instead of consumer goods) October 1929: the stock market crash The Great Depression 40 Dow-Jones Industrial Stock Price Index for USA, 1914-1942 400 350 Dollars per Share 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Source: National Bureau of Economic Analysis 41 Since the 1970s, Many Other Bubbles Developed… East Asia 1997 “Dot-com” stock market bubble 1999/2000 Housing bubbles in the US, UK, Ireland, Spain and other European countries late 2000s Bubbles are characterized by a rapid increase in prices that are not generally accompanied by an equally rapid improvement in economic conditions buying begets more buying appreciation in the asset values is fleeting 42 Why Do We Fail to Learn From Past Mistakes? Speculative bubbles form for psychological and economic reasons Psychological reasons – faith or “blind optimism” – herd behaviour Economic reasons – easy credit – borrowing for purchases of stocks or real estate – inflation of a financial bubble 43 How Exactly Are All These Possibilities of Bank-Based and Non-BankBased Finance Linked to the Macroeconomy? Finance is crucial to realize investment plans of firms no savings have to be collected prior to the investment undertaking banks can create deposit money by extending loans with “the stroke of a pen” investment plans depend on banks and non-banks willingness and ability to provide funds to firms and households 44 Figure 11.2 Credit and Aggregate Demand A larger amount of credit disbursed tends to lead to more aggregate demand: Money is usually borrowed by households and firms to finance spending on consumer goods, residential properties or new equipment. Credit Volume More financialized economy Less financialized economy Aggregate Expenditure However, the more finalized an economy, the more of the credit goes into nonproductive activities without an impact on aggregate demand. For a financialized economy, therefore, the Credit-AE-curve is further to the left. 45 The International Aspect of Finance: Cross-Border Trading of Financial Assets Some invest in foreign assets because of good performance of – for example – a Japanese car company Others invest abroad to speculate on changes in the exchange rate Trading financial assets across borders means that one country borrows and another country acquires claims 46 What to Take Home (I) Hyperinflation comes from running the printing press Deflation is a fall in aggregate price levels Money is a store of value, a medium of exchange, and a unit of account Economists differentiate between commodity money and fiat money Commercial banks make profits through collecting deposits and investing in a portfolio of loans as well as miscellaneous securities Deposit money is created when banks make loans 47 What to Take Home (II) Nonbank financial institutions are not subject to banking regulation Economies became financialized Irrational speculative real estate or asset price rises are called bubbles Finance is crucial to realize investment plans of firms 48