Evaluating a Seed-Stage Consumer Social App
Confidence Level: Ideal Scenario
Team
Product
Traction
Builder Capabilities
Pace of iteration is
impressive (e.g. half a
dozen or more beta
versions of the core app
within the first year).
Singular Focus
The product is
uniquely focused on
driving one core
behavior within the
app that is central to
the vision laid out by
the founders. The
UI/UX for that singular
feature is effortless.
Base of Users
The overall user base
can be small (a
couple thousand), yet
they should be
intentionally chosen
users (e.g. hand
picked beta testers).
Ideal base is at least
10,000 registered
users.
Vision
Founder(s) can clearly
articulate an innate
form of human
communication that
they want to accentuate
via software. (Not a new
form of communicating
with one another that
they hope the world will
adopt.)
Team Gaps
There aren’t any obvious
gaps in the founding
team’s abilities and it’s
clear what roles and
responsibilities are
assumed by each
member.
Durable Behavior
There is singular
focus around a core
feature that is also a
durable behavior (i.e.
a behavior users will
repeat). Examples
include Instagram
filters and Snap
lenses.
Stage of Development
App is in the App
Store, Google Play
Store, and/or website
(if relevant) or with a
private beta list in
TestFlight.
Rate of Growth
Exponential organic
growth (i.e. not
acquired via paid
marketing) of at least
5x-10x
year-over-year.
Depth of Engagement
At least 30% of users
are using it weekly or
daily to demonstrate
some type of durable
behavior.
Market
Specificity
Clarity around who
the target
demographic is (e.g.
high schoolers) with
adoption within the
target user profile.
Beachhead
Demonstrated
execution of a
targeted acquisition
and onboarding
strategy for the first
couple thousand
early adopters.
Confidence Level: Green
Team
Product
Traction
Builder Capabilities
Pace of iteration is
good, but not amazing.
They have put a few
versions of the app into
the hands of some
users but haven’t been
turning over new app
iterations at a rapid
pace (i.e. almost
monthly).
Singular Focus
Product is uniquely
focused on driving
one core behavior
within the app, but
the UI/UX for the core
behavior still has
room for
improvement.
Base of Users
Carefully chosen
group of at least a
few thousand beta
users through organic
methods (e.g.
hand-picked friends
and family or seeded
through a specific
offline or online
community)
Vision
Shared a
communication
philosophy that a few
others have also arrived
at. It may be clear and
compelling, but not
necessarily novel nor
make you feel like
you’ve learned
something new.
Team Gaps
Overall, the team seems
skilled with no obvious
skills gaps. However,
there may be questions
about who the CEO or
product visionary is.
Durable Behavior
The singular focus
around a core feature
should be a durable
behavior (i.e. a
behavior users will
repeat). Examples
include Instagram
filters and Snap
lenses.
Stage of Development
App in the App Store,
Google Play Store,
and/or website (if
relevant) or with a
private beta list in
TestFlight.
Rate of Growth
Exponential organic
growth of at least
3x-5x year-over-year.
Depth of engagement
20% or more of users
use the product
weekly or daily to
demonstrate some
type of durable
behavior.
Market
Specificity
Clarity around who
the target
demographic is, but
with little evidence
to prove the target
user profile is
correct. It may still
be somewhat
unproven.
Beachhead
Some thoughtfulness
around how to
identify and acquire
early adopters with
some evidence
demonstrating they
can execute on the
plan. However, the
evidence is still
sparse and the
beachhead isn’t
entirely proven out
yet.
Confidence Level: Yellow
Team
Product
Traction
Market
Builder Capabilities
The team released one
or two versions of the
app at a relatively slow
pace. It appears they
were not very
capital-efficient as it
took them 12 months to
get out an app that
other teams could have
developed in a few
months.
Singular Focus
It’s not clear what the
core function of the
app is. Tends to have
a variety of features
that distract from a
core action.
Base of Users
May have a few
thousand users but
they were acquired
through paid
marketing or other
channels that didn’t
show thoughtfulness
around who the early
adopter may be.
Specificity
Lacking clarity
around who the early
adopter and ideal
customer is.
Vision
Poor articulation of
the communication
philosophy, often with a
description that sounds
like feature creep for an
app that should begin
as relatively simple.
Founder’s have an
overly optimistic view of
the future that comes
across as not bound by
the realities of building
a startup.
Team Gaps
Likely absence of a
product leader or a
strong technical leader.
Both roles may be filled,
but perceived as “good
but not great” builders.
Durable Behavior
No evidence or clear
articulation that users
will repeat the core
behavior on a regular
basis​.
Stage of Development
The app may not yet
be in the App Store or
with beta users on
TestFlight.
Rate of Growth
Linear organic growth
(indicating very weak
product market fit, if
any) or the majority
of growth is driven
through paid
acquisition.
Depth of Engagement
Less than 20% of
users are engaging
with the product on a
monthly or weekly
basis 3-6 months
after the initial date
of signup.
Beachhead
No clear strategy
around how to
acquire early
adopters. Likely a
fallback to a generic
plan like buying users
via paid marketing.
Confidence Level: Red
Team
Builder Capabilities
Pace of iteration is
extremely slow. Took
one year or more to get
a basic MVP into the
market.
Vision
Founders are trying to
create a whole new
method of sharing &
communicating that
doesn’t align with how
humans like to naturally
share and communicate.
Team Gaps
No founding tech
lead/CTO that is
capable of building the
product.
Product
Singular Focus
Complete lack of
focus in the app on
one core action.
Durable Behavior
No evidence or clear
articulation that users
will repeat any
behavior within the
app.
Stage of Development
App not ready for
testing with users in
any format.
Traction
Base of Users
Close to zero users to
speak of and/or the
users acquired
inorganically.
Rate of Growth
Growth is flat or only
accelerating because
of paid marketing.
Depth of Engagement
Less than 20% of
users are engaging
with the product on a
monthly or weekly
basis within 1-3
months after the
initial date of signup.
Market
Specificity
Little to no thinking
around who the
target user is.
Beachhead
No plans for how to
acquire specific early
adopters.