A C T I N G I N T H E P R E S E N T, SHAPING THE FUTURE: Leaders in Unprecedented Times INSIGHTS BY: MARTIN N. DAVIDSON, LYNN A. ISABELLA, ANTON KORINEK, MICHAEL LENOX, BIDHAN L. PARMAR, ELIZABETH A. POWELL, DOUG THOMAS, RAJKUMAR VENKATESAN AND ANNE TRUMBORE WRITTEN BY: SEB MURRAY EDITED BY: CATHERINE BURTON DARDEN EXECUTIVE EDUCATION & LIFELONG LEARNING TABLE OF CONTENTS 2 RESPONSIBLE CAPITALISM 4 SUPPLY CHAIN RESILIENCY 6 CLIMATE ACTION 8 LEADERSHIP KINDNESS 10 RISE OF THE MACHINES 13 A HYBRID WORKFORCE 15 DIVERSITY, EQUITY AND INCLUSION 18 RISE TO THE CHALLENGE WITH DARDEN EXECUTIVE EDUCATION & LIFELONG LEARNING INTRODUCTION I n recent memory, the world has seen profound changes in almost every facet of business and society, and the change is ongoing. Though it’s taken center stage — with good reason — the pandemic isn’t the only urgent issue facing humanity. In a torrent of contemporary challenges, COVID-19 accelerated some changes that were inevitable, brought the need for others into stark focus and served as a backdrop for the constant flux of an evolving world. The business community has a starring role to play in every major issue of our time, and the opportunities and risks in each are significant. Taking an active role in shaping the future is more important than ever as leaders navigate and co-create the “next normal.” Whether we will have the Roaring ’20s or the Groaning ’20s remains to be seen, but strong leadership will be essential as companies learn from the past, confront urgent issues head on and plan for the future. A C T I N G I N T H E P R E S E N T, S H A P I N G T H E F U T U R E : L E A D E R S I N U N P R E C E D E N T E D T I M E S 1 DARDEN EXECUTIVE EDUCATION & LIFELONG LEARNING RESPONSIBLE CAPITALISM I n recent years, many companies have been jettisoning the shareholder primacy model and have instead been embracing the stakeholder model of capitalism, in which they seek to create value for all stakeholders, including employees, customers, suppliers and wider society, while delivering financial returns to shareholders. Some firms even put purpose above profits, or at least believe that they are inextricably linked. Yet while those recent years saw more interest in responsible capitalism than ever before, those promises on stakeholder value are now being put to the test as the COVID-19 pandemic scars economies across the globe. “It’s easy to stand for what you say you stand for when you’re flush with cash and things go your way,” says Bidhan L. Parmar, Darden’s Shannon Smith Emerging Scholar in Business. “But when the chips are down, do you honor your word?” He sees the current mixture of tensions as the acid test for companies’ commitment to the stakeholder model. Those tensions include matters of health and safety, the stresses that accompany pandemic life, and issues of justice and equality, all of which touch the workforce and the workplace — even a virtual one. Some businesses have stepped up and taken better care of their employees. Other companies have faced tough choices in cutting costs to shore up the bottom line. Executing those hard decisions with respect and communication can have a massive effect not just on assuaging concerns, but on the future of those companies. “As long as the process is fair and people understand why decisions are made, they are able to tolerate those cuts better,” says Parmar. “If there is no justification given, then stakeholders rebel.” In other cases, shortages of qualified workers have constrained business growth. “Clearly, one thing coming out of COVID-19 is that companies are vying for top talent. People trapped in jobs they didn’t really like are saying: Life is short, and we need to spend time doing things that are worthwhile,” he says. “It’s a draw for talent when companies embrace the idea that all stakeholders matter.” Another driving factor of company behavior is pressure from investors who are allocating far more capital to companies with strong environmental, social and governance (ESG) credentials and divesting firms with poor ESG “It’s easy to stand for what you say you stand for when you’re flush with cash and things go your way. But when the chips are down, do you honor your word?” BIDHAN L. PARMAR, Shannon Smith Emerging Scholar in Business Associate Professor of Business Administration A C T I N G I N T H E P R E S E N T, S H A P I N G T H E F U T U R E : L E A D E R S I N U N P R E C E D E N T E D T I M E S 2 EXECUTIVE EDUCATION & LIFELONG LEARNING DARDEN records. “Stakeholder groups are becoming more powerful, and they believe companies can do good and do well at the same time,” Parmar says, emphasizing the fact that doing good for the world and doing well financially do not have to be mutually exclusive phenomena. This belief is held by another group of stakeholders, too: “Customers are looking at the ESG record of companies when they make purchase decisions. They are holding corporations to account more than ever before,” Parmar notes. Some businesses and plenty of politicians see this moment in time as a chance not just to rebuild the economy after coronavirus but to build it back better and greener than before. “It is a fantastic opportunity,” says Parmar. “Companies that can use this energy will be in a great position to move forward.” The first step is to unearth a firm’s wider purpose beyond profits, he explains, and then embody those values authentically in terms of processes and products or services. “Responsible business — people sometimes think about this as a kind of corporate PR, a way to mask poor practices elsewhere in the value chain,” he says, offering the example of “greenwashing,” when a company presents itself as environmentally responsible without fully living up to the promise. Indeed, companies that want to embrace responsible capitalism are confronted with plenty of hurdles, not least the challenge of measuring something as vague as purpose. “Organizations need to get good at collecting data and having a diversity of perspectives,” he says. “That underlying way in which managers work together to come up with a hypothesis has to be strong for this trend of responsible capitalism to continue.” He underscores the risk that what doesn’t get measured doesn’t get done: “When managers take shortcuts, it’s easy to fall back on the shareholder value maxim, as it simplifies the world.” One area of contention with some shareholders has been dividends, with many companies slashing payouts in the pandemic. In past economic downturns, these payments tended to quickly recover, but Parmar predicts that coronavirus has catalyzed a more permanent shift in how companies are spending their free cash flows. “Each of these outlays of cash has to be connected to a logic, which says this is how we can better serve all our stakeholders.” This is not about a choice between impact or income; he highlights a growing body of research showing that companies with stronger ESG scores tend to outperform others financially.1 “There is an increasing amount of research that shows in certain contexts at certain times there is a connection between taking care of stakeholders and making profit.”2 Leaders of companies are being called upon to address issues far beyond the confines of the corporate world and step into society’s thorniest debates, from immigration to LGBTQ rights. Will leaders of business take the improbable opportunity handed to them to make a positive impact on the world? “Ultimately, each of these large institutions of society, government and business has to do its part,” says Parmar. “No one institution can make up for another institution that isn’t pulling its weight. While business is feeling some of that pressure, it has to be a collective effort if we are to deliver on the promises of stakeholder capitalism.” Bidhan L. Parmar SHANNON SMITH EMERGING SCHOLAR IN BUSINESS ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION Executive Education Programs: Certificate in Data Science for Business Strategy Collaboration and Influence Managing Individual and Organizational Change 1 Tensie Whelan, Ulrich Atz, Tracy Van Holt and Casey Clark, “ESG and Financial Performance: Uncovering the Relationship by Aggregating Evidence From 1,000 Plus Studies Published Between 2015–2020,” report by Rockefeller Asset Management and the NYU Stern Center for Sustainable Business, February 2021, https://www.stern.nyu.edu/sites/default/files/assets/documents/NYU-RAM_ESG-Paper_2021%20Rev_0.pdf. 2 Witold J. Henisz, Sinziana Dorobantu and Lite J. Nartey, “Spinning Gold: The Financial Returns to Stakeholder Engagement,” Strategic Management Journal 35, No. 12 (December 2014): 1727–1748, https://doi.org/10.1002/smj.2180. A C T I N G I N T H E P R E S E N T, S H A P I N G T H E F U T U R E : L E A D E R S I N U N P R E C E D E N T E D T I M E S 3 DARDEN EXECUTIVE EDUCATION & LIFELONG LEARNING SUPPLY CHAIN RESILIENCY T he COVID-19 crisis exposed the fragility of global supply chains. It was the perfect storm; a global stressor, the pandemic meant halts and delays to manufacturing and transport, closed borders, heightened geopolitical tensions and workers stuck at home. Coronavirus was not the first shock to global supply — many industries were hit similarly hard after the 2011 Japanese earthquake and tsunami, for instance — and it won’t be the last. But it does strengthen the case for bolstering continuity of supply of crucial components. Companies have for decades chased the holy grail of ever greater efficiency, sacrificing resilience and robustness. Executives have searched for the most cost-efficient ways to service the final market, with labor cost arbitrage and local specialisms creating a fragmented global value chain. Doug Thomas, the Henry E. McWane Professor of Business Administration at the Darden School, argues that executives’ focus must shift to balance the historical commitment to efficiency with a renewed commitment to resiliency. “Intentional action led to historical cost efficiencies as well as the vulnerabilities that are being exposed by COVID-19,” he says. Take the shortage of computer chips that car plants rely on to make infotainment systems, power steering and brakes. The chips crisis forced automakers to cut production and is expected to cost the global industry $110 billion, laying bare the danger of relying on “just in time” production. And that’s not the only way the pursuit of efficiency at all costs presents risks. Supply chain optimization has centralized trade flows through key arteries such as the Suez Canal, Thomas points out, which carries about 12 percent of global trade. Rerouting vessels around Africa adds substantial time and cost to voyages, but reliance on one route can be devastating for trade. In March 2021, a skyscraper-sized container ship was stuck in the Canal for almost a week, creating a backlog of 422 cargo containers and livestock transporters. One response to vulnerabilities has been to source from more suppliers internationally in order to mitigate supply chain risk. Thomas sees merit in this method, but he cautions that it’s not so simple: Diversification could be prohibitively expensive for companies, especially in complex industries like auto-making. Even if diversification is affordable, firms must ensure that the diversification actually mitigates risk. “Employing two different contract manufacturers on two different continents may not mitigate risk if a key input to the manufacturing process comes from only one location.” “Intentional action led to historical cost efficiencies as well as the vulnerabilities that are being exposed by COVID-19.” DOUG THOMAS, Henry E. McWane Professor of Business Administration A C T I N G I N T H E P R E S E N T, S H A P I N G T H E F U T U R E : L E A D E R S I N U N P R E C E D E N T E D T I M E S 4 EXECUTIVE EDUCATION & LIFELONG LEARNING DARDEN Another approach to overcoming vulnerabilities has been to bring production back home, something that politicians are pushing for. In response to issues that arose during the pandemic, the Japanese government created a $2 billion fund to help companies examine their supply chains and potentially reshore or diversify globally, but initial uptake was low. U.S. President Joe Biden signed an executive order aimed at strengthening the resilience of supply chains, including reducing America’s dependency on foreign states for critical products like semiconductors and medicines. But Thomas points out that while resilience in these critical supply chains can be increased, there will always be some dependency on foreign sources for certain inputs: “Some reshoring will make sense, some of it won’t.” America’s effort to build up national supply chains reflects rising U.S.-China tensions, dubbed the “new Cold War.” The cooling of relations between the two economic superpowers has led some companies to shift from suppliers in mainland China — which has long been considered the world’s factory — to other Southeast Asian markets, such as Vietnam and Indonesia. “The places that stand to benefit will be developing countries with governments that are acting to create a conducive environment to attract multinational corporations,” says Thomas. India launched a $6 billion scheme to provide short-term subsidies for goods made in the country in an effort to make the cost of manufacturing more competitive with rivals, including China. Thomas notes, however, that some of China’s technical capabilities and infrastructure give it an edge that is hard to replicate. “In electronics, unwinding China’s dominance is hard, as companies have large capital investments that are hard to move.” He adds that China is a massive consumer market, and companies may want to manufacture there to sell as well as to buy goods. And China’s state-sponsored Belt and Road Initiative continues to build infrastructure and trading links across the globe. Thomas says executives are learning to navigate a geopolitical environment that is more hostile to global trade, as evidenced by vaccine nationalism and Brexit. He expects political lobbying to intensify among the largest companies — while geopolitical risks disadvantage the small businesses that form the backbone of the U.S. economy. They create two-thirds of net new jobs. Another aspect of supply chains for corporations to consider is due diligence when it comes to suppliers, especially into their ESG standards, as governments increasingly introduce obligations over issues such as labor rights. Even if selecting suppliers based on ethical considerations raises prices in the short term, Thomas sees sustainable sourcing as a competitive advantage, especially with equity and bond markets, as well as a growing consumer segment, discriminating sharply in favor of companies with strong ESG scores. This phenomenon is already leading to some difficult decisions on sourcing, he points out. H&M and Nike have faced a backlash from Chinese state media and e-commerce platforms over the companies’ rejection of cotton produced in Xinjiang, the western Chinese region where some estimates suggest a million Uyghurs have been detained, sparking a global outpouring of concern. There is a wider societal consideration when it comes to thinking about supply chains. Thomas points out that freer cross-border flows of people along with goods, capital and information have lifted many hundreds of millions of people out of poverty, even raising global life expectancy by almost a decade. Yet globalization has meant stagnant wages and worsening inequality for many. A mixture of global and local production seems the most likely way for companies to reap the benefits of the best of both worlds. Doug Thomas HENRY E. MCWANE PROFESSOR OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION Executive Education Programs: Introduction to Digital Transformation The Executive Program A C T I N G I N T H E P R E S E N T, S H A P I N G T H E F U T U R E : L E A D E R S I N U N P R E C E D E N T E D T I M E S 5 DARDEN EXECUTIVE EDUCATION & LIFELONG LEARNING CLIMATE ACTION T he issue of climate change has come into sharp focus since the Paris Agreement of 2015, which roused multilateral action to limit the average rise in global temperatures to 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. The world’s leading climate scientists warn that further increase would be catastrophic for hundreds of millions of people in terms of risk of drought, floods and extreme heat. The Paris target has been adopted by most nations and, in recent years, the pace of action has accelerated sharply. Economies that account for half of global gross domestic product have made a commitment to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. This is a legally binding target in the U.K., France and New Zealand, while China, Japan and South Korea have made similar but not cast-iron guarantees. Meanwhile, in the U.S., President Joe Biden laid out a $2 trillion plan designed to take climate action and spur economic recovery. This is a massive challenge, and net-zero will only be possible with help from business. Michael Lenox, the Tayloe Murphy Professor of Business Administration at Darden, says that rapid progress is crucial, with emissions needing to fall by 45 percent by 2030 relative to 2010 for a net-zero future to be viable. Lenox, who also serves as senior associate dean and chief strategy officer at Darden, says that success will depend on greening energy sources, reducing emissions from industrials, agriculture and buildings, and electrifying transportation. While conventional wisdom suggests that achieving climate goals could shave 1 or 2 percent off global GDP, Lenox presents a more optimistic picture, saying there are net benefits to the world economy. “This isn’t about hampering global growth; this is about capturing the next wave of global growth,” he says, in terms of business opportunities and risk mitigation. One study suggests limiting global warming within 1.5 degrees Celsius could result in accumulated global benefits of $20 trillion.1 Some progress has been made toward these aims, especially in the power sector, with a notable reduction in coal-fired power capacity across the world, excluding China. In the U.K., the energy sector’s emissions have fallen nearly two-thirds since 1990. And elsewhere, 17 countries are legislating for the phasing out of vehicles powered by the “This isn’t about hampering global growth; this is about capturing the next wave of global growth.” MICHAEL LENOX, Tayloe Murphy Professor of Business Administration Senior Associate Dean and Chief Strategy Officer 1 M arshall Burke, W. Matthew Davis and Noah S. Diffenbaugh, “Large Potential Reduction in Economic Damages Under UN Mitigation Targets,” Nature 557 (May 2018): 549–553, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0071-9. A C T I N G I N T H E P R E S E N T, S H A P I N G T H E F U T U R E : L E A D E R S I N U N P R E C E D E N T E D T I M E S 6 EXECUTIVE EDUCATION & LIFELONG LEARNING DARDEN internal combustion engine. But Lenox suggests the gains have been driven more by market dynamics and less by government policy. “We’ve seen a substantial reduction in emissions in the U.S., primarily driven by the switch from coal to natural gas — but that’s driven by commodity prices and natural gas being so much cheaper because of the fracking boom,” he says, noting a similar scenario in renewables, with the cost of wind and solar power coming down, making them more competitive with fossil fuels. Lenox says businesses have a crucial role to play in the transition to a green economy in terms of innovation and investing capital and curbing their own carbon footprints. He says the commercial sector is the engine of innovation that will invent the technologies that will help bring down emissions, citing electric cars in particular: “This will be a game changer.” He also notes the importance of companies that are developing innovations such as renewables, green cement and sustainable agriculture. “There are huge opportunities either for incumbent companies or entrepreneurs to innovate new tech that can lead the march to a clean future,” Lenox adds, pointing out that adoption of such practices by multinational corporations can lead to downstream pressure for change across the global value chain. Greater uptake of green technologies might also help to lower costs in the long run, he adds. “And, increasingly, you will see the ESG investing community requesting that companies disclose and mitigate their climate risk,” says Lenox, highlighting the financial incentive for climate action. “Consumers are also concerned about climate change.” Meanwhile, Lenox calls on companies to commit to targets such as sourcing renewable energy and electrifying their vehicle fleets. They also might find success in encouraging the workforce to maintain habits developed in the pandemic. “When you get a recession like we’ve had, it tends to lower emissions globally,” he says. “But this has probably bought us no more than an extra year.” While this is only a minor reprieve, what would make a difference would be sustaining practices to which the masses became accustomed. “Remote working, fewer commutes and less business travel are all things that could lower the carbon footprint of businesses,” says Lenox, suggesting these trends will linger. “There’s also some hope that the crisis has underscored our shared humanity, and it might lead to greater collective action on climate change.” That said, he also notes some thorny trade-offs, including the threat of fossil fuels becoming economically unviable and the resulting layoffs and bankruptcies. “We’re already seeing a bubble burst in fracking in the U.S. These are secondary, market-driven risks,” Lenox says. If companies don’t voluntarily move toward net-zero targets, regulators are likely to force their hands, potentially through carbon pricing, using market mechanisms to discourage behaviors that lead to carbon emissions — which could wipe significant value from corporations. Companies who don’t pursue a net-zero goal also risk reputational harm and reduced access to the capital markets, Lenox points out. Moving early to mitigate climate change can bring many substantial benefits for businesses, especially negative-emissions technologies, Lenox adds. The services sector also stands to benefit from advising clients on how to achieve net-zero emissions. The coronavirus pandemic may have delayed some progress, he admits, but many governments are looking to build their economies back up in a greener fashion, deploying funds to assist the recovery based on low-carbon principles. The need for an acceleration of such efforts is obvious. A huge amount of work lies ahead, but Lenox is cautiously optimistic about the future. “It’s going to be really tough. It will require leadership at all levels and a collaborative effort between business, civil society and the state.” Michael Lenox TAYLOE MURPHY PROFESSOR OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION SENIOR ASSOCIATE DEAN AND CHIEF STRATEGY OFFICER Executive Education Programs: Certificate in Business Strategy Certificate in Data Science for Business Strategy Introduction to Digital Transformation A C T I N G I N T H E P R E S E N T, S H A P I N G T H E F U T U R E : L E A D E R S I N U N P R E C E D E N T E D T I M E S 7 DARDEN EXECUTIVE EDUCATION & LIFELONG LEARNING LEADERSHIP KINDNESS S ince March 2020 when the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a pandemic, a series of cascading crises in global health, employment, social justice and political divisions has laid bare for many managers and leaders just how porous the lines between life and work really are. Each wave compounded the next, leaving many workers caught in cycles of uncertainty, anxiety and stress. On a very large scale, this has been a moment of truth for seeing what’s real and choosing to respond with “business as usual” or with leadership kindness. “For many leaders I’ve listened to, the relatively sudden impact of the lockdown brought to the fore their awareness of our common humanity,” explains Lili Powell, who holds an uncommon joint appointment at the University of Virginia’s Darden School of Business and School of Nursing. From her vantage point as Julie Logan Sands Associate Professor of Business Administration and Kluge-Schakat Professor in Nursing, as well as the director of the Compassionate Care Initiative, Powell sees an important opportunity for leading mindfully. A challenge in any crisis is managing one’s own stress response and reactivity in order to see clearly and choose wisely, as Powell explained in her three-part series for Darden Ideas to Action, “Leading Mindfully: COVID-19 and the Big Human Pivot.”1 Managing oneself with mindfulness leads to leading mindfully when one employs similar skills to influence the collective attention of a team and organization so they, in turn, can make wise choices. As she wrote in a book chapter, leading mindfully is very much about showing up with an optimal balance of grit and grace, in which “grit” represents the focus and determination that mindful practices foster and “grace” represents the calm and kindness that compassion practices foster.2 “For many leaders I’ve listened to, the relatively sudden impact of the lockdown brought to the fore their awareness of our common humanity.” ELIZABETH A. POWELL Julie Logan Sands Associate Professor of Business Administration Kluge-Schakat Professor in Nursing 1 Lili Powell, “Leading Mindfully: COVID-19 and the Big Human Pivot, Parts 1–3,” Darden Ideas to Action, March–May 2020, https://ideas.darden.virginia. edu/leading-mindfully-COVID19-and-the-big-human-pivot-part-1. 2 Lili Powell, “Showing Up with Grit and Grace: How to Lead Under Pressure as a Nurse Clinician and Leader,” Self-Care for New and Student Nurses, eds. Dorrie Fontaine, Tim Cunningham and Natalie May (Sigma Publishing, 2021). A C T I N G I N T H E P R E S E N T, S H A P I N G T H E F U T U R E : L E A D E R S I N U N P R E C E D E N T E D T I M E S 8 EXECUTIVE EDUCATION & LIFELONG LEARNING DARDEN Powell realizes that stereotypically, business leaders have tended to privilege grit over grace. This even shows up in common language used in business that suggests that business is about hard numbers and mental toughness, while the human elements are soft and touchy feely. “In light of recent crises, leaders I’m working with recognize they need to operate in a more holistic way,” Powell says. “Yet this does not necessarily come naturally to them. And performance metrics and rewards systems in business often valorize toughness over humanity. So the burning question is whether the pull toward leadership kindness will be maintained even after the COVID-19 crisis abates — or whether leaders will shift back to ‘business as usual.’” Powell believes that the context for leadership has fundamentally shifted and that a “going back to normal” mindset would be a mistake. Instead, she sees the opportunity for defining a “next normal” during which leaders have a chance to see the shifts that have occurred and intentionally craft a new blend of grit and grace in their own leadership skills repertoire, one that fits the new and evolving circumstances. Powell’s work has concentrated on building and applying skills of mindfulness, compassion and leadership communication, particularly during high-stakes presentations and interactions, such as crucial conversations. As she wrote with colleague Jeremy Hunter, a leader can make micro-moves in the moment to do the inner work and the outer work of leading mindfully.3 For example, training in mindfulness and compassion outside of critical moments can help build the experiential inner work muscles to notice, shift and respond more mindfully and compassionately in the moment. These inner moves build capacity to then make skillful outer moves, such as naming an elephant in the room, reframing the way to see it and inviting another person to respond in a new way. With practice over time, such moves can become second nature and consequently lead to changes in levels of trust and psychological safety in a team. “Compassion is a skill, one that individuals can cultivate in themselves, and it can be baked into organizations,” Powell points out. According to Monica Worline and Jane Dutton’s Awakening Compassion at Work, compassion skills exercised at an interpersonal level can be leveraged by baking compassion into organizations through rituals, routines, structures and systems. Fundamentally, they make a case for growing compassion as a competitive advantage that improves a number of measures, such as employees’ sense of psychological safety and trust, that translate into reduced levels of burnout, errors and turnover, and increased levels of productivity, creativity and innovation.4 “The real promise of leadership kindness comes from understanding that compassion or the lack thereof isn’t just something that’s interpersonal, but structural and systemic,” explains Powell. “If we can accept that racism is systemic and institutionalized, it stands to reason that justice and kindness can also be systematized. But the challenge in the short term will be to help individuals see the benefits interpersonally so they can build the capacity to mold teams and organizations that can follow suit in an authentic way.” Elizabeth A. Powell JULIE LOGAN SANDS ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION KLUGE-SCHAKAT PROFESSOR IN NURSING Executive Education Programs: Leading Mindfully Managing Individual and Organizational Change 3 Lili Powell and Jeremy Hunter, “How to Recapture Leadership’s Lost Moment,” Leader to Leader 98 (June 2020): 51–57, https://doi.org/10.1002/ltl.20519. 4 Monica Worline and Jane Dutton, Awakening Compassion at Work (Oakland, California: Berrett-Koehler Publishers, 2017). A C T I N G I N T H E P R E S E N T, S H A P I N G T H E F U T U R E : L E A D E R S I N U N P R E C E D E N T E D T I M E S 9 DARDEN EXECUTIVE EDUCATION & LIFELONG LEARNING RISE OF THE MACHINES F or decades, popular culture has depicted artificial intelligence in the context of a dystopian future in which machines, typically in android form, rise up and overthrow the human race. While AI may take over humans in the movies, in real life it’s taking over how humans consume movies. Netflix and other streaming platforms have changed the game on how viewers absorb entertainment, and such companies combine increasingly sophisticated algorithms with machine learning to offer a plethora of tailored content. On the upside, this gives customers a better entertainment experience than ever before; on the downside, the same algorithms are used to hook viewers and induce them to binge-watch. The entertainment sphere offers just one example of the proliferation of AI in everyday life and business. The economic base of the postindustrial world is defined by technology and service industries — and the rapid way machine learning is changing them — as much as the Industrial Revolution was marked by shifts in manufacturing. Machine learning is permeating the business world, and all companies need to be nimble and adapt to new customer standards of delivery and delight. These days, consumers expect companies to make their lives easier by understanding, predicting and delivering preferences they might not even know they have; personalized customer engagement is the name of the game. “To survive,” says Rajkumar Venkatesan, Ronald Trzcinski Professor of Business Administration at Darden, “companies need a customer-centric, strategic plan for how to deliver a unique buying experience to every customer at every juncture of their buying journey — and do it at scale.” “Machine learning offers a variety of sophisticated tools that produce deeper customer insights much faster than any group of humans could achieve,” says Venkatesan. “The way it works is you use data, AI and algorithms to personalize your company’s acquisition strategy, retention strategy, growth strategy and even promotion of word-of-mouth among consumers.” Venkatesan takes note of companies that have found success and increased customer loyalty by taking technology even a step further to address needs a consumer might not realize, both social and physical: Pelo- “To survive, companies need a customer-centric, strategic plan for how to deliver a unique buying experience to every customer at every juncture of their buying journey — and do it at scale.” RAJKUMAR VENKATESAN, Ronald Trzcinski Professor of Business Administration A C T I N G I N T H E P R E S E N T, S H A P I N G T H E F U T U R E : L E A D E R S I N U N P R E C E D E N T E D T I M E S 10 “The big worry is not simply the fact that jobs are being displaced, but that the new jobs being created are not of the same quality with the same kinds of incomes as before.” ANTON KORINEK, DARDEN EXECUTIVE EDUCATION & LIFELONG LEARNING Associate Professor of Business Administration Professor of Economics ton devotees find a sense of community through its network. Coca-Cola’s Powerade Command Center evaluates and then accounts for athletes’ hydration levels, creating unique formulas that go beyond taste preferences. Connecting all those dots to execute on market demand is more than might be feasible under the old way of doing things, which makes businesses’ adaptation to AI an imperative. But that imperative for businesses to adapt comes with large-scale consequences, and society itself may need to adapt. While consumer expectation and business strategy have changed the way the workforce delivers goods and services through technology, the other side of the coin is that those factors are ultimately changing what is needed from the workforce itself. “We’re likely to offer the same types of services with fewer human employees in the future,” predicts Anton Korinek, associate professor of business administration at Darden and an authority on AI, expressing an opinion shared by other experts and policymakers. A concern that existed before March 2020, it has only been exacerbated by the pandemic. Korinek says that many of the jobs frozen because of public health measures are unlikely to return after the crisis ebbs. “The main game has been to change business processes and the delivery of services so that people are not in immediate physical proximity to each other,” he says. And customers, he explains, have grown accustomed to the digital services that have replaced jobs. In the midst of COVID-19, people have made habits of the kind of convenience that comes with cutting out the commute and staying home for activities like shopping, exercise, entertainment and dining. Even when venturing into the world, social distancing has led to more efficiency for the customer, as people can check into hotels and restaurants using touchscreens, and health care and other service providers schedule fewer overlapping appointments, in addition to offering Zoom consultations. This leaves business leaders facing some tough decisions. Before the onset of the pandemic, economists predicted an impending jobs crisis, with consultants at McKinsey, for one, estimating that 400 to 800 million jobs may be displaced in the face of automation within the coming decade.1 The coronavirus pandemic accelerated the inevitable as containment measures shut down hospitality and retail, among others, industries in which workers are in the most danger of displacement. Korinek, who also serves as a professor of economics in UVA’s Department of Economics, points out that creative destruction is nothing new, but what’s different about the present situation is that workers displaced by the process subsequently face worse job prospects. “The big worry is not simply the fact that jobs are being displaced, but that the new jobs being created are not of the same quality with the same kinds of incomes as before,” he says. “Displaced workers may be forced to go down the jobs ladder to take on work that is lower paid, sometimes with poorer working conditions.” 1 J ames Manyika et al., “Jobs Lost, Jobs Gained: Workforce Transitions in a Time of Automation,” report by McKinsey Global Institute, November 2017, https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/future-of-work/jobs-lost-jobs-gained-what-the-future-of-work-will-mean-for-jobs-skills-and-wages#. A C T I N G I N T H E P R E S E N T, S H A P I N G T H E F U T U R E : L E A D E R S I N U N P R E C E D E N T E D T I M E S 11 EXECUTIVE EDUCATION & LIFELONG LEARNING DARDEN This danger is not limited to lower-paid positions. Middle management positions in data-driven, white-collar sectors of the economy — such as finance, accounting, law and information technology — are especially susceptible to more sophisticated automation. The jobs that are currently under less threat of automation are those that require uniquely human “soft skills” like planning, people management and strategic decision-making. “What humans are still better at is understanding social situations and putting things into context,” Korinek says. “Machines also cannot quite understand all the nuances of language yet.” Roles that require human traits like empathy, creativity and motivation are the ones that provide an opportunity to reshape the future of work for now. In the short term, it would be helpful for companies to invest in training programs to reskill workers for the jobs AI is creating. But it’s not necessarily enough. “Retraining certainly makes a lot of sense and will help a significant fraction of the workers who have been displaced, but it won’t be a panacea,” Korinek asserts, calling for concerted policy action to support the “left behind” regions in poorer areas that will suffer the most in the extended future. “We should also make a conscious effort to actively create jobs for the displaced workers.” As for the long term, “I do believe that we should prepare for the possibility that at some point there may not be enough work for everybody to be gainfully employed,” he adds. “That means making sure that there is a social safety net so that the left-behind workers will be able to obtain sufficient benefits and their standards of living don’t decline.” The upside of such a scenario is that if machines become so sophisticated that they can displace human workers on a large scale, they would also be able to generate an unprecedented amount of wealth that could be shared broadly across society, Korinek adds. “In the very long run, if machines become sufficiently capable, maybe humans can just retire and enjoy the fruits of what they have created.” Rajkumar Venkatesan RONALD TRZCINSKI PROFESSOR OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION Executive Education Programs: Certificate in Data Science for Business Strategy Digital Marketing Innovation Introduction to Digital Transformation Strategic Execution: Achieving Breakthrough Performance Anton Korinek ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION PROFESSOR OF ECONOMICS A C T I N G I N T H E P R E S E N T, S H A P I N G T H E F U T U R E : L E A D E R S I N U N P R E C E D E N T E D T I M E S 12 DARDEN EXECUTIVE EDUCATION & LIFELONG LEARNING A HYBRID WORKFORCE C oronavirus is driving a permanent shift in working practices, with major corporations planning for a hybrid approach that sees employees split their work hours between home and the office in the longer term. The employers hope the hybrid model will empower staff to do focused work remotely, while enabling them to achieve a better work-life balance. That means workplaces will probably shrink and become destinations for collaboration, innovation, networking, coaching, and socializing — HSBC and Lloyds Banking Group anticipate cutting floorspace by 40 percent and 20 percent, respectively. But the root-and-branch reform of working patterns is driven by bottom-up pressures as much as it is by top-down. Microsoft surveyed 30,000 people from across the globe and found that 70 percent want flexible remote work to con- tinue, while 66 percent of business leaders are planning to redesign office space to better accommodate hybrid work.1 Lynn A. Isabella, the Frank M. Sands Sr. Associate Professor of Business Administration at the Darden School of Business, says that companies cannot put the genie back in the bottle. “We’ve turned a corner, and it’s going to be hard to go back to the way things were,” she says. “There are many things people have come to like about remote working, including the reduced commutes that make it easier to balance their professional and personal lives.” But there are risks that come with hybrid working. Potentially, teams and processes could disintegrate as workers set their own schedules. And in some cases, two-tier workforces may form, with remote workers left out of decision-making and informal water-cooler conversations. Complete freedom is counterproductive, argues Isabella, “We’ve turned a corner, and it’s going to be hard to go back to the way things were. There are many things people have come to like about remote working, including the reduced commutes that make it easier to balance their professional and personal lives.” LYNN A. ISABELLA, Frank M. Sands Sr. Associate Professor of Business Administration 1 “ 2021 Work Trend Index Annual Report: The Next Great Disruption is Hybrid Work — Are We Ready?” report by Microsoft, March 2021, https://ms-worklab.azureedge.net/files/reports/hybridWork/pdf/2021_Microsoft_WTI_Report_March.pdf. A C T I N G I N T H E P R E S E N T, S H A P I N G T H E F U T U R E : L E A D E R S I N U N P R E C E D E N T E D T I M E S 13 “In a hybrid workforce, leaders become more like coaches and facilitators than command-and-control generals,” LYNN A. ISABELLA, DARDEN EXECUTIVE EDUCATION & LIFELONG LEARNING Frank M. Sands Sr. Associate Professor of Business Administration who advocates instead for some degree of harmony as the office becomes more about collaboration than focused work. “Rather than setting any old schedule indiscriminately, there needs to be some thought given to ‘community hours’ when everyone is together, so you can have those kinds of interpersonal connections and managers can ensure accountability,” she says. In large part, presence and working patterns will depend on the nature of the individual’s role and how it intersects with those of colleagues. There are, for example, specific jobs that need to be performed on-site, including those that need access to specialist facilities and equipment, as may be the case with scientists in a lab. Other jobs might be best performed on-site because of the focus on collaboration, as when marketing executives coordinate an advertising campaign. But plenty of roles can be performed effectively from home, including accountants doing solitary bookkeeping, software engineers working on code, or call center workers who follow clearly defined processes and scripts. Some U.S. banks, including Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase & Co., are bringing workers back to the office on a permanent basis, arguing that remote work has cost them clients, but Isabella suspects it’s more about ensuring compliance in a heavily regulated industry. There have been attempts to monitor employees, as companies have access to far larger amounts of personal information than ever before, but this has provoked a fierce backlash from employees, who expressed concerns about “big brother” surveillance. Monitoring makes little sense to Isabella, who says we must benchmark employee performance based purely on output and not input in terms of hours worked: “Time spent is not a performance measure.” The design of office space is also going to have to change to accommodate hybrid work. Pre-pandemic, Isabella says the trend was open-plan offices for individual work and meeting rooms for collaboration. That design is likely to reverse as employees use open offices for collaboration and those responsible for individual outputs use private spaces when it’s time for focused work. “If we want people to collaborate with one another, we need to put them near each other,” says Isabella. “So the design of the office is going to have to be taken much more seriously in the future because of the impact it’s going to have on interaction between employees.” The onus will be on managers to make this work. “In a hybrid workforce, leaders become more like coaches and facilitators than command-and-control generals,” she says. “That shift has already started. The focus now is on making sure people feel psychologically safe and that we appreciate all members of the organization, independent of where they come from and where they are.” Isabella believes that leaders will need to define the contours of the new world of work for everyone’s benefit. Lynn A. Isabella FRANK M. SANDS SR. ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION Executive Education Programs: Certificate in Corporate Aviation Management Leading Teams for Growth and Change A C T I N G I N T H E P R E S E N T, S H A P I N G T H E F U T U R E : L E A D E R S I N U N P R E C E D E N T E D T I M E S 14 DARDEN EXECUTIVE EDUCATION & LIFELONG LEARNING DIVERSITY, EQUITY AND INCLUSION W hen a shocking video emerged of the killing of George Floyd, an African American man, at the hands of a white police officer in May 2020, it triggered a racial reckoning. It also led to institutions publicly decrying systemic racism, with many companies issuing messages of solidarity with the subsequent global protests, led and amplified by the Black Lives Matter movement. Not only that, but businesses were forced to confront their own poor records on race, and it became clear that leaders needed to do more to tackle racial disparities in their own companies. They made bold pledges, with corporate America promising to spend $50 billion on racial equity, according to a study by Creative Investment Research. These pledges were to benefit civil rights groups, targeted investment into communities of color, and overhauls of internal recruitment and training programs. Yet only about $250 million has actually been spent or committed to a specific initiative thus far, igniting cynicism about the sincerity of the pledges — especially in the midst of the pandemic, which worsened the financial outlook for many companies. “My sense of it is the jury is still out,” says Martin N. Davidson, Johnson and Higgins Professor of Business Administration at Darden. “Some companies have taken it more seriously than others, but a year to create real change is not a lot of time. Even so, they should at least be laying the groundwork for sustained progress.” Time will ultimately tell whether firms live up to their monetary pledges, and much more needs to change for companies’ rhetoric to become reality. But Floyd’s murder certainly sparked a massive effort on corporate diversity, equity and inclusion. In the whirlwind of attention around racial issues, companies have taken to the public stage. Some use the power of their platforms to spread awareness, and some have even been dragged into political battles — though most prefer to lobby behind the scenes and stick to broad statements of principles in public. Change is afoot in supply chains, too, with companies demanding more responsibility and account- “You want to have the people you bring in thrive and advance, unencumbered by biases and discriminatory policies.” MARTIN N. DAVIDSON, Johnson and Higgins Professor of Business Administration Senior Associate Dean and Global Chief Diversity Officer A C T I N G I N T H E P R E S E N T, S H A P I N G T H E F U T U R E : L E A D E R S I N U N P R E C E D E N T E D T I M E S 15 DARDEN EXECUTIVE EDUCATION & LIFELONG LEARNING “The events of recent years very strongly highlighted the issue of equity and the importance of embracing it because it’s the right thing to do. But that rationale is hard to sustain; there was not enough emphasis on the business case.” MARTIN N. DAVIDSON, Johnson and Higgins Professor of Business Administration Senior Associate Dean and Global Chief Diversity Officer ability from their suppliers and outside service providers, including accountants, law firms and headhunters. Davidson, however, urges business leaders to address inequalities in their own institutions first before straying into public issues. “It doesn’t mean what they have to offer won’t be beneficial to others,” Davidson says. “But I do think they should take care of their own houses first before they start telling other people what to do.” Some of the world’s biggest companies have indeed been quick to set hiring and promotion targets, and they have also been forthcoming with their workforce data, reporting detailed demographic information that has highlighted the lack of diversity among senior officials and managers in the U.S. Yet other companies have resisted such disclosures, raising concerns over their lack of transparency. Regardless, there’s room for improvement for all of the above. “It’s clear now the best thing companies can do is create systems and structures that put in place people and resources to do the work, and also hold people accountable for getting the job done,” says Davidson, noting the ascendency of the chief diversity officer role. “You can also create incentives,” he adds, with some companies tying executive pay and bonuses to diversity and inclusion metrics. Davidson, who is not only on the faculty but also senior associate dean and global chief diversity officer at the Darden School, points out that too many companies focus on simply getting diverse talent through the door and not enough on ensuring talent development and career progression, a challenge that compounds the lack of diversity at the top of organizations. “You want to have the people you bring in thrive and advance, unencumbered by biases and discriminatory policies,” he says. Davidson highlights mentorship and sponsorship as potentially effective policies for nurturing diverse talent, along with unconscious-bias training for executives. “You need to create a culture and climate shift by fostering greater collaboration and having those difficult conversations about race, gender and other sensitive differences,” he says. “You also need to coach diverse teams to work well together. These actions, taken in concert with structural changes, can make a notable difference.” For Davidson, finding allies throughout the organization is another key to accelerating progress. “Many people became passionate and outraged by the Floyd murder, and with earnest hearts, they said, ‘I am going to step in and do something,’” he observes. “It’s a very important role, one that is going to help make this work stick.” Yet allies can overstep their mark, and there is little understanding about what makes for good allyship. Davidson offers his insight: “Becoming a great ally means grounding yourself in your identity as someone with privilege. Another essential component comes down to fundamental interpersonal interactions, coaching and support skills. The third piece is the importance of gathering critical information about these issues.” “The events of recent years very strongly highlighted the issue of equity and the importance of embracing it because it’s the right thing to do,” says Davidson. “But that rationale is hard to sustain; there was not enough emphasis on the business case.” It’s important to note that alongside the moral A C T I N G I N T H E P R E S E N T, S H A P I N G T H E F U T U R E : L E A D E R S I N U N P R E C E D E N T E D T I M E S 16 EXECUTIVE EDUCATION & LIFELONG LEARNING DARDEN imperative, the business case for diversity is well-established.1 And diversity in the workplace is hugely beneficial to companies in terms of access to talent, innovation, and creating new business processes and markets, among other factors. Clearly, more needs to change to tackle systemic racism and address racial inequalities in the workforce, and Davidson sees businesses playing an important part on that front. “What matters most is that companies are uniquely positioned to provide scaffolding and support that allows people to keep at it,” he says. “That’s the thing that is going to be most important, because it’s tiring, exhausting work. There are already conversations about ‘diversity fatigue.’” Davidson urges businesses and individuals to stay positive about the future. “There is some backlash and overt racism, but oftentimes that is as much about getting the poison out of the system as it is something that is inherently negative. I’m optimistic that in time we’ll see ongoing, continual change and progress,” he says. “I think equity will be achieved; it’s not an if, it’s a when,” he says. “The momentum for change expands beyond companies and organizations; it’s in the zeitgeist. Martin N. Davidson JOHNSON AND HIGGINS PROFESSOR OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION SENIOR ASSOCIATE DEAN AND GLOBAL CHIEF DIVERSITY OFFICER Executive Education Programs: Managing Individual and Organizational Change The Executive Program Women in Leadership Bank Executive Leadership Program “I think equity will be achieved; it’s not an if, it’s a when. The momentum for change expands beyond companies and organizations; it’s in the zeitgeist.” MARTIN N. DAVIDSON, Johnson and Higgins Professor of Business Administration Senior Associate Dean and Global Chief Diversity Officer 1 S undiatu Dixon-Fyle, Kevin Dolan, Vivian Hunt and Sara Prince, “Diversity Wins: How Inclusion Matters,” report by McKinsey & Co., May 2020, https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/diversity-and-inclusion/diversity-wins-how-inclusion-matters. A C T I N G I N T H E P R E S E N T, S H A P I N G T H E F U T U R E : L E A D E R S I N U N P R E C E D E N T E D T I M E S 17 EXECUTIVE EDUCATION & LIFELONG LEARNING DARDEN RISE TO THE CHALLENGE WITH DARDEN EXECUTIVE EDUCATION & LIFELONG LEARNING A s the world emerges from the COVID crisis, business leaders have the opportunity to shape the recovery in a way that benefits the economy, the environment and society. To direct an organization effectively in these times, leaders need new technological skills and ethical perspectives. Led by world-renowned faculty, Darden Executive Education & Lifelong Learning offers a wide variety of open programs that help leaders rise to the challenge. With programs ranging from digital transformation and data sci- ence to leadership and management, participants can upskill quickly and grow as strategic leaders. The Executive Program is for seasoned leaders with 12 or more years of management experience. A learning opportunity like no other, participants immerse themselves in the principles of leadership with lively case study discussions and workshops with Darden faculty, guest speakers and fellow executives. In-person sessions on Darden’s Charlottesville and D.C. area grounds focus on what drives and inspires leaders to peak performance. Earn alumni status and gain a global network through this unique program. A C T I N G I N T H E P R E S E N T, S H A P I N G T H E F U T U R E : L E A D E R S I N U N P R E C E D E N T E D T I M E S 18 Provided by the University of Virginia Darden School Foundation CONTACT US UVA Darden Executive Education & Lifelong Learning 100 Darden Boulevard Charlottesville, VA 22903 UVA Darden DC Metro 1100 Wilson Boulevard Arlington, VA 22209 Connect with a lifelong learning team member to find the right program to reach the next level in your career. +1-434-924-3000 Darden_Exed@darden.virginia.edu Darden.virginia.edu/executive-education Find us on: