LORD YOU NEVER SLUMBER
WORRIED ALL THESE DAYS
GOD SEEMS FAR AWAY
LOOKING FOR HIS PRESENCE
FINDING HIM NOWHERE
YOU THOUGHT THAT HE HAS LEFT YOU
YOU THOUGHT HE DOESN'T CARE
BUT WHEN YOU FELL DOWN ON YOUR KNEES
YOU REALIZED HE'S THERE
ASKING HELP FROM FRIENDS
BUSY AS THEY ARE
WITH NO ONE ELSE TO TURN TO
BUT THE BIBLE BY YOUR SIDE
HE PROMISED NOT TO LEAVE YOU
HE SAID HE'D ALWAYS STAY
NO MATTER WHAT YOU'RE GOING THROUGH
HE WILL ALWAYS CARE
CHORUS;
LORD YOU NEVER SLUMBER
LORD YOU NEVER SLEEP
YOU ARE ALWAYS WITH ME REGARDLESS OF MY NEED
LORD YOU NEVER SLUMBER
LORD YOU NEVER SLEEP
LORD YOU ARE MY PEACE
YOU LIFT YOUR EYES TO THE HILLS
WHERE DOES YOUR HELP COME FROM
HE WON'T LET YOU SLIP
HE'LL WATCH OVER YOU
THE LORD'S YOUR SHADE AT YOUR RIGHT HAND
HE'LL KEEP YOU FROM ALL HARM
HE PROMISED TO WATCH OVER YOUR LIFE
BOTH NOW AND FOREVERMORE
PHILIPPINE
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2021:
RECOVERY PROSPECTS AMIDST RISING CASES
ALVIN ANG, PhD
Director, ACERD and
Professor, Economics Department
March 20, 2021
OUTLINE
¢World
Recovery – an imperative
¢Vaccines and what they can do
¢Industries need to grow
¢Employment will follow
¢Where are the opportunities for growth
¢Estimates
20
05
Q
20 1
05
Q
20 3
06
Q
20 1
06
Q
20 3
07
Q
20 1
07
Q
20 3
08
Q
20 1
08
Q
20 3
09
Q
20 1
09
Q
20 3
10
Q
20 1
10
Q
20 3
11
Q
20 1
11
Q
20 3
12
Q
20 1
12
Q
20 3
13
Q
20 1
13
Q
20 3
14
Q
20 1
14
Q
20 3
15
Q
20 1
15
Q
20 3
16
Q
20 1
16
Q
20 3
17
Q
20 1
17
Q
20 3
18
Q
20 1
18
Q
20 3
19
Q
20 1
19
Q
20 3
20
Q
20 1
20
Q
3
OUR TRADE IS ABOUT 40% OF PH ECONOMY
TOTAL TRADE
45000.0000
40000.0000
70%
GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS
30000.0000
15000.0000
5000.0000
0.0000
TOTAL TRADE
as % of GDP
60%
35000.0000
50%
25000.0000
40%
20000.0000
30%
20%
10000.0000
10%
0%
PERFORMANCE OF KEY GLOBAL CHAIN PARTNERS
As of 4Q2020
US
GDP
YoY
GDP
QoQ
Interest
rate
Inflation
Jobless
rate
Budget
Deficit to
GDP
Debt to
GDP
Current
Account to
GDP
-2.5
4.0
0.25
1.4
6.3
-4.6
105
-2.3
CHINA
6.5
2.6
3.85
-0.3
5.2
-2.8
53
1.0
JAPAN
-1.2
3.0
-0.1
-1.2
2.9
-3.8
237
3.6
GERMANY
-3.9
0.1
0
1.0
4.6
-4.8
60
7.1
INDIA
-7.5
22.0
4.0
4.0
6.5
-9.5
70
-0.9
BRAZIL
-3.9
7.7
2.0
4.6
14.1
-5.9
76
-2.7
S. KOREA
-1.4
1.1
0.5
0.6
5.4
-2.6
38
3.7
INDONESIA
-2.1
-0.4
3.75
1.5
7.1
-2.2
31
-2.7
THAI
-4.2
1.3
0.5
-0.3
1.5
-1.9
41
6.8
PH
-8.3
5.6
2.0
4.2
8.7
-3.5
42
2.2
SG
-2.4
3.8
0.2
0.0
3.2
-0.3
126
15.0
MALAYSIA
-3.4
-0.3
1.75
-1.4
4.8
-3.2
53
1.9
VIETNAM
4.5
6.9
4.0
-1.0
2.4
-4.4
58
5.0
RED – POSITIVE; GREEN - NEGATIVE
SOURCE: https://www.visualcapitalist.com/history-of-pandemics-deadliest/
2 YEARS TO FULLY CO-EXIST
2019
2020
Manufacture of basic pharmaceutical…
Manufacture of wood, bamboo, cane,…
Manufacture of food products
Manufacture of basic pharmaceutical…
Manufacture of chemical and chemical…
Printing and reproduction of recorded…
Manufacture of paper and paper products
Manufacture of basic metals
Manufacture of tobacco products
Manufacture of wood, bamboo, cane,…
Manufacture of electrical equipment
Manufacture of computer, electronic…
Manufacture of basic metals
Manufacture of wearing apparel
Printing and reproduction of recorded…
Manufacture of leather and related…
Manufacture of tobacco products
Manufacture of textiles
Manufacture of rubber and plastic…
Manufacture of beverages
Manufacture of machinery and…
Other manufacturing
Manufacture of fabricated metal…
Manufacture of beverages
Manufacture of chemical and chemical…
Manufacture of electrical equipment
Manufacture of other non-metallic…
Manufacture of wearing apparel
Manufacture of rubber and plastic…
Manufacture of furniture
Manufacture of transport equipment
Manufacture of food products
Other manufacturing
Manufacture of other non-metallic…
Manufacture of paper and paper products
Manufacture of fabricated metal…
Manufacture of transport equipment
Manufacture of machinery and…
Manufacture of computer, electronic…
Manufacture of coke and refined…
Manufacture of coke and refined…
Manufacture of leather and related…
Manufacture of textiles
Manufacture of furniture
-30.0
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
MANUFACTURING GROWTH BY SECTOR
-50.0 -40.0 -30.0 -20.0 -10.0
0.0
10.0 20.0
Ju
n1
A 5
ug
-1
5
O
ct
-1
D 5
ec
-1
Fe 5
b1
A 6
pr
-1
Ju 6
n1
A 6
ug
-1
6
O
ct
-1
D 6
ec
-1
Fe 6
b1
A 7
pr
-1
Ju 7
n1
A 7
ug
-1
O 7
ct
-1
D 7
ec
-1
7
Fe
b1
A 8
pr
-1
Ju 8
n1
A 8
ug
-1
8
O
ct
-1
D 8
ec
-1
Fe 8
b1
A 9
pr
-1
Ju 9
n1
A 9
ug
-1
9
O
ct
-1
9
D
ec
-1
Fe 9
b2
A 0
pr
-2
Ju 0
n2
A 0
ug
-2
0
O
ct
-2
D 0
ec
-2
0
Loan Growth
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
Turned Negative
-
(10.0)
A. For Production by Economic Activity
FIRMS DO NOT WANT TO BORROW OR
BANKS ARE NOT LENDING
B. For Consumer Loans 2
AVERAGE CAPACITY
UTILIZATION OF FACTORIES
STILL AT BELOW PRE-COVID
20% OF WORKERS WILL NOT FIND WORK IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT
SECTOR
Agriculture
Industry
Services
JAN 2021
41,247,730
10,044,131
7,601,277
23,602,321
JAN 2020
42,542,940
9,624,898
7,988,853
24,929,191
difference
-1,295,210
419,233
-387,576
-1,326,870
growth
-3%
4%
-5%
-5%
OCCUPATION
Managers
Professionals
Technicians and associate professionals
Clerical support workers
Service and sales workers
Skilled agricultural, forestry, and fishery workers
Craft and related trades workers
Plant and machine operators and assemblers
Elementary occupations
Armed forces occupations
3,423,189
2,368,779
1,568,148
2,629,907
8,163,925
5,460,374
2,970,121
3,298,464
11,276,140
88,683
3,979,553
2,456,980
1,611,329
2,844,930
8,465,191
4,854,681
3,256,120
3,448,481
11,523,296
102,379
-556,364
-88,201
-43,181
-215,023
-301,266
605,693
-285,999
-150,017
-247,156
-13,696
-14%
-4%
-3%
-8%
-4%
12%
-9%
-4%
-2%
-13%
41,247,729
25,903,530
1,731,906
20,217,432
3,841,099
113,093
11,793,827
1,119,011
2,431,361
42,542,941
27,756,613
1,850,613
21,894,002
3,894,875
117,123
11,134,669
1,002,377
2,649,282
-1,295,212
-1,853,083
-118,707
-1,676,570
-53,776
-4,030
659,158
116,634
-217,921
-3%
-7%
-6%
-8%
-1%
-3%
6%
12%
-8%
CLASS OF WORKER
Wage and salary workers
Worked for private household
Worked for private establishment
Worked for government or government corporation
Worked with pay in own-family operated farm or business
Self-employed without any paid employee
Employer in own family-operated farm or business
Worked without pay in own family-operated farm or business (Unpaid family
worker)
GROWTH IN HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION COMPONENTS
2019
2020
Education
Communication
Miscellaneous goods and
services
Housing, water, electricity, gas
and other fuels
Food and non-alcoholic
beverages
Miscellaneous goods and
services
Recreation and culture
Communication
Housing, water, electricity,
gas and other fuels
Health
Restaurants and hotels
Education
Health
Furnishings, household
equipment…
Clothing and footwear
Food and non-alcoholic
beverages
Alcoholic beverages, tobacco
Transport
Transport
Furnishings, household
equipment…
Restaurants and hotels
Clothing and footwear
0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12
-0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1
0
0.1
GOVERNMENT HAS TO BORROW
Total Debt
Debts as % of GDP
8,000,000
100.0%
90.0%
7,000,000
1. As debt grows to
over P5.4 trillion
6,000,000
80.0%
70.0%
5,000,000
0.60
4. Covid-19: P6.4 trillion
36% Debt-to-GDP ratio
0.50
0.40
60.0%
4,000,000
50.0%
40.0%
3,000,000
30.0%
0.30
2. Debt-to-GDP ratio
declines to 28%
0.20
2,000,000
1,000,000
0.10
10.0%
0.0%
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
0
Domestic Deb t
External Debt
Total debt as % of nominal GDP
3. No need to pay
the debt. Just
outgrow it.
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
20.0%
Domestic Deb t as % of GDP
External Debt as % of GDP
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct 14
Jan 15
Apr 15
Jul 15
Oct 15
Jan 16
Apr 16
Jul 16
Oct 16
Jan 17
Apr 17
Jul 17
Oct 17
Jan 18
Apr 18
Jul 18
Oct 18
Jan 19
Apr 19
Jul 19
Oct 19
Jan 20
Apr 20 r
Jul-20
Oct-20
Money Supply
6,000,000
80.0
5,000,000
70.0
60.0
4,000,000
50.0
3,000,000
40.0
2,000,000
30.0
20.0
1,000,000
10.0
0.0
M3 to GDP 2
Savings Deposits
SAVINGS INCREASING DURING PANDEMIC AS
MONEY SUPPLY REACH 75% OF GDP
Time Deposits
PSEI
PSEI VALUATION NOW IS MORE THAN 20X
PE
Jan-21
Jul-20
Jan-20
Jul-19
Jan-19
Jul-18
Jan-18
Jul-17
Jan-17
Jul-16
Jan-16
Jul-15
Jan-15
Jul-14
Jan-14
Jul-13
Jan-13
Jul-12
Jan-12
Jul-11
Jan-11
Jul-10
Jan-10
Jul-09
Jan-09
Jul-08
Jan-08
Jul-07
Jan-07
Jul-06
Jan-06
Jul-05
Jan-05
Jul-04
Jan-04
Jul-03
Jan-03
Jul-02
Jan-02
Jul-01
Jan-01
Jul-00
Jan-00
Jul-99
Jan-99
Jul-98
Jan-98
Jul-97
Jan-97
Jul-96
Jan-96
Jul-95
Jan-95
Valuation
10000
30.00
9000
8000
25.00
7000
20.00
6000
5000
15.00
4000
3000
10.00
2000
5.00
1000
0
0.00
Liquidity is going
into bonds and IPOs
• Latest RTB-24 (P30Bn)
offering was 6x oversubscribed
• MERRYMART IPO
(P1.6BN)
• Ayala REIT IPO
(P13.6Bn) was 2x
oversubscribed
Private Bonds Raised
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2018
2019
Banks
SOURCE: PDS
Corporates
2020
Growth Rate of Housing Real Estate (YoY)
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
All Types of Housing Unit
Duplex
Condominium Unit
Single Detached/Attached House
Townhouse
REAL ESTATE PRICES FINALLY APPROXIMATING
REALITY
20
3Q
20
2Q
20
1Q
19
4Q
19
3Q
19
2Q
19
1Q
18
4Q
18
3Q
18
2Q
18
1Q
17
4Q
17
3Q
17
2Q
17
1Q
16
4Q
16
16
3Q
-20.0
2Q
1Q
-10.0
16
0.0
INFLATION INFLATED
Food And Non-Alcholic Beverages
Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas And Other Fuels
Restaurant And Miscellaneous Goods And Services
Transport
Health
Education
Furnishings, Household Equipment And Routing Maintenance Of The…
Clothing And Footwear
Communication
Alcoholic Beverages and Tobacco
Recreation And Culture
-2.00
3.00
8.00
13.00
18.00
23.00
28.00
33.00
38.00
(1 .0)
INFLATION WILL HIT A HIGH AVERAGE OF 5.0 THIS YEAR
DUE TO SUPPLY CONSTRAINTS OF AGRICULTURE
PRODUCTS
Nov-21
Sep-21
Jul-21
Ma y-21
Ma r-21
Jan-21
Nov-20
Sep-20
Jul-20
Ma y-20
Ma r-20
Jan-20
Nov-19
Sep-19
Jul-19
Ma y-19
Ma r-19
Jan-19
Nov-18
Sep-18
Jul-18
Ma y-18
Ma r-18
Jan-18
Nov-17
Sep-17
Jul-17
Ma y-17
Ma r-17
Jan-17
Nov-16
Sep-16
Jul-16
Ma y-16
Ma r-16
Jan-16
Nov-15
Sep-15
Jul-15
Ma y-15
Ma r-15
Jan-15
Nov-14
Sep-14
Jul-14
Ma y-14
Ma r-14
Jan-14
Nov-13
Sep-13
Jul-13
Ma y-13
Ma r-13
Jan-13
Monthly vs Annual Inflation
8.0
1.40
7.0
1.20
1.00
6.0
0.80
5.0
0.60
4.0
0.40
3.0
0.20
2.0
-
(0 .20)
1.0
(0 .40)
(0 .60)
(0 .80)
GIR
Import Cover
GROSS INTERNATIONAL RESERVES BREACHES $100BN
Apr-20
Jul-19
Oct-18
Jan-18
Apr-17
Jul-16
Oct-15
Jan-15
Apr-14
Jul-13
Oct-12
Jan-12
Apr-11
Jul-10
Oct-09
Jan-09
Apr-08
Jul-07
Oct-06
Jan-06
Apr-05
Jul-04
Oct-03
Jan-03
Apr-02
Jul-01
Oct-00
Jan-00
Apr-99
Jul-98
Oct-97
Jan-97
Apr-96
Jul-95
100,000.0
Oct-94
Jan-94
120,000.0
14.0
WEAK ECONOMIC ACTIVITY AND TRADE
SOFTENING TRADE DEFICIT
12.0
10.0
80,000.0
8.0
60,000.0
6.0
40,000.0
4.0
20,000.0
2.0
0.0
0.0
10 yr bond gap between US and PH increasing
Interest Differential 10 year bonds
P/$ ratt
Dec-20
Jul-20
Feb-20
Sep-19
Apr-19
Nov-18
Jun-18
Jan-18
Aug-17
Ma r-17
Oct-16
Ma y-16
Dec-15
Jul-15
Feb-15
Sep-14
Apr-14
Nov-13
Jun-13
Jan-13
Aug-12
Ma r-12
Oct-11
Ma y-11
Dec-10
Jul-10
Feb-10
Sep-09
Apr-09
Nov-08
Jun-08
Jan-08
Aug-07
Ma r-07
Oct-06
Ma y-06
Dec-05
Jul-05
Feb-05
Sep-04
Apr-04
Nov-03
Jun-03
Jan-03
Aug-02
Ma r-02
Oct-01
Ma y-01
Dec-00
Jul-00
0
60
-2
50
-4
40
-6
-8
30
-10
20
-12
10
-14
-16
0
REMITTANCES WILL BE SLOWER
value
growth
Cumulative
Jan-21
Sep-20
May-20
Jan-20
Sep-19
May-19
Jan-19
Sep-18
May-18
Jan-18
Sep-17
May-17
Jan-17
Sep-16
May-16
Jan-16
Sep-15
May-15
Jan-15
Sep-14
May-14
Jan-14
Sep-13
May-13
Jan-13
Sep-12
May-12
Jan-12
Sep-11
May-11
Jan-11
Sep-10
May-10
Jan-10
Sep-09
May-09
Jan-09
3,500
18.0
13.0
3,000
8.0
2,500
3.0
-2.0
2,000
-7.0
-12.0
1,500
-17.0
1,000
-22.0
-5.0
Q101
Q301
Q102
Q302
Q103
Q303
Q104
Q304
Q105
Q305
Q106
Q306
Q107
Q307
Q108
Q308
Q109
Q309
Q110
Q310
Q111
Q311
Q112
Q312
Q113
Q313
Q114
Q314
Q115
Q315
Q116
Q316
Q117
Q317
Q118
Q318
Q119
Q319
Q120
Q320
Growth Rate of ICT Components
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
-10.0
-15.0
-20.0
-25.0
Information and publishing
Communication
DOMESTIC TOURISM
International Visitors fell by 83.97-percent to 1.32 million
in 2020 from 8.26 million in 2019.
International receipts also fell by 83.12 percent to P81.4
billion from the P482.16 billion recorded in 2019.
1,000,000
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000
Accommodation
Food and
services for
beverage serving
visitors
services
Source: PSA
2012
Transport
services
2013
2014
Travel agencies
and other
reservation
services
2015
2016
Entertainment
and recreation
services
2017
If international travel will be limited, Domestic tourism can
help pull up some activities in the hospitality sector. It is
actually a bigger contributor than international travel
2018
Country-specific
tourism
characteristic
services Shopping
Internal
Inbound
Outbound
Internal
Inbound
Outbound
Internal
Inbound
Outbound
Internal
Inbound
Outbound
Internal
Inbound
Outbound
Internal
Inbound
Outbound
Internal
Inbound
Outbound
0
Miscellaneous
BIGGEST IMPACT – REVIVING AGRICULTURE
Agriculture Share
18.0
16.0
Agriculture production is still prevalent
Across regions as against industries and services
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
NCR
CAR
I
II
III
2009
IVA
2010
2011
IVB
2012
V
2013
VI
2014
VII
2015
VIII
2016
IX
X
2017
2018
XI
XII
XIII
ARMM
WORLD BANK’S 3 FACTS FOR RECOVERY
Public Health
Prioritization
Negative Shock
will linger
Economic Precondition matters
• Economic Activity will remain depressed as long
as the threat of the virus remain
• Government has to boost public health defense
• Global Response is uncoordinated
• Borders will remain restricted
• Economic activity will be volatile
• How big is informality and public services
• How dependent is a country on tourism,
remittances, exports and FDI
CHINA, JAPAN & USA’S V AND SWOOSH
10.0
187.5
177.5
8.0
167.5
6.0
157.5
4.0
147.5
2.0
137.5
127.5
0.0
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
117.5
-2.0
107.5
-4.0
97.5
2016
-6.0
China
Japan
USA
The V of growth and the swoosh of level.
Source of raw outlook: International Monetary Fund, downloaded on 19 January 2021.
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
China
Japan
USA
China w/o COVID
Japan w/o COVID
USA w/o COVID
2024
2025
DANGEROUS DIVERGENCE: K-SHAPED RECOVERY
BUSINESS CYCLE OF INCOME
2020
Q4
Year
GROSS DOMESIC PRODUCT
2020
AGRICULTURE, FISHERY & FORESTRY
COVID hit:
• Accomodat’n INDUSTRY SECTOR
Mining and Quarrying
• Transport
Manufacturing
• Construction
Electricity Gas and Water
Construction
Growth
SERVICE SECTOR
• Finance
Wholesale & retail; repair: vehicles & bikes
• Public Admin Transport and Storage
• BPOs
Accommodation & food service activities
Information and communication
Financial and insurance activities
Real estate and ownership of dwellings
Professional and business services
Pub. admin. & def.; compulsory soc. act.
Education
Human health and social work activities
Other services
-8.27
0.84
-9.93
-14.78
-7.11
1.66
-23.39
-8.39
-3.82
-16.36
-40.58
3.12
8.55
-18.86
-9.94
5.06
-13.09
-2.61
-31.45
-9.33
0.84
-13.09
-18.19
-10.40
0.08
-24.10
-68.66
-5.38
-28.93
-44.64
4.93
6.82
-17.56
-9.02
5.59
-11.20
-4.04
-38.73
Q1
-1.8
1.8
-2.6
-4.5
-1.5
5.5
-9.8
-2.1
5.5
-8.7
-36.8
4.4
8.2
-13.7
-0.6
6.0
-15.6
1.1
-32.1
Q2
3.7
1.9
3.6
-0.6
2.6
6.1
5.9
4.0
7.0
1.6
0.3
4.9
9.0
-6.7
4.3
6.3
-9.5
4.4
-1.0
2021
Q3
4.7
2.0
5.6
0.9
3.7
5.7
11.6
4.8
6.2
4.2
1.3
5.6
9.3
-3.6
6.2
6.6
-5.9
5.0
1.3
Q4
5.1
2.0
5.8
1.3
4.3
5.6
11.5
5.3
5.8
5.7
2.1
5.6
9.3
-1.4
7.2
6.7
-3.8
5.5
2.1
Steady
Year State
2.9
5.9 2021
1.9
2.0 • Recession
3.0
5.8
ending on
-0.9
1.5
Q2.
2.2
5.0
• Better growth
5.7
5.7
beginning Q3.
4.6
8.3
3.0
6.6
6.1
5.9
-0.2
7.6
-13.7
4.9
5.1
5.7
9.0
9.3
-6.7
5.8
4.5
8.8
6.4
6.7
-9.2
3.8
3.9
6.1
-13.0
4.1
BUSINESS CYCLE OF EXPENDITURE
2020
Hardest Hit:
• Investment
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
• Consumption
Q4
2021
Year
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Year
2021
• Investment and
Consumption
5.9
switching from
5.8
negative to positive
on Q2.
7.8
Steady
State
-8.27 -9.33
-1.8
3.7
4.7
5.1
2.9
-8.72 -8.23
-3.9
0.7
3.7
4.6
1.3
7.47 10.54
7.6
7.5
7.0
7.8
7.5
GROSS CAPITAL FORMATION
-28.95 -35.43 -25.7
0.2
5.8
6.8
-4.9
6.7
Gross fixed capital formation
-28.58 -26.62 -16.6
3.0
11.7
13.2
1.6
9.4
Construction
-17.14 -24.08 -18.1
3.3
14.6
16.7
2.6
8.9
Durable equipment
-19.62 -30.28 -20.2
0.1
8.0
9.1
-2.9
11.2
HH CONS. EXPENDITURE
Closing of world
economies
• Export
• Import
• Net primary
income
2020
GOV’T CONS. EXPENDITURE
Breeding st. & orchard dev’t
0.30
1.5
2.7
3.4
3.9
2.9
3.9
13.29 -6.25
-0.1
11.7
19.3
21.9
14.0
22.3
EXPORT
-10.52 -16.30
-7.1
0.1
5.2
5.9
0.8
7.0
Less: IMPORT
-10.87 -11.90 -13.2
-4.3
2.0
3.9
-3.2
8.2
Intellectual property products
1.72
LOOKS LIKE A SWOOSH!
25,000,000
20,000,000
15,000,000
10,000,000
5,000,000
IT WILL TAKE US at least THREE YEARS TO RECOVER
WHAT WE HAVE LOST IN 2020
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
GDP RECOVERY WILL TAKE TIME…
DOH DATA DROP
MOBILITY REPORT SHOWED CAREFUL CONFIDENCE
Google Philippine Mobility Report
60
40
20
0
2/15/2020
3/15/2020
4/15/2020
5/15/2020
6/15/2020
7/15/2020
8/15/2020
9/15/2020
10/15/2020
11/15/2020
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100
retail_and_recreation_percent_change_from_baseline
grocery_and_pharmacy_percent_change_from_baseline
parks_percent_change_from_baseline
transit_stations_percent_change_from_baseline
workplaces_percent_change_from_baseline
residential_percent_change_from_baseline
12/15/2020
1/15/2021
600,000
Oct/93
May/94
Dec/94
Jul/95
Feb/96
Sep/96
Apr/97
Nov/97
Jun/98
Jan/99
Aug/99
Mar/00
Oct/00
May/01
Dec/01
Jul/02
Feb/03
Sep/03
Apr/04
Nov/04
Jun/05
Jan/06
Aug/06
Mar/07
Oct/07
May/08
Dec/08
Jul/09
Feb/10
Sep/10
Apr/11
Nov/11
Jun/12
Jan/13
Aug/13
Mar/14
Oct/14
May/15
Dec/15
Jul/16
Feb/17
Sep/17
Apr/18
Nov/18
Jun/19
Jan/20
RETURN ON P1,000
1,200,000
ASIAN
FINANCIAL
CRISIS
T-Bills
Stocks
Forex
Hide in Bed
START OF
LOCKDOWNS
1,000,000
800,000
GLOBAL
FINANCIAL
CRISIS
400,000
200,000
-
SUMMARY
¢The
Worst is over, but can turn back
¢Overall confidence is largely dependent on vaccine
rollout, acceptability
¢Consistent fall in daily cases will be the game changer
for confidence to return at full blast
¢Taking advantage of low interest rates which is ending
¢Be wary of overall inflation
¢Slow recovery better than no recovery
CONNECTING THE PERSON TO THE GDP
DO NOT WAIT FOR THINGS TO GET BETTER!
Ecclesiastes 11:4-6 New Living Translation
(NLT)
4 Farmers who wait for perfect weather
never plant. If they watch every cloud,
they never harvest.
5 Just as you cannot understand the path
of the wind or the mystery of a tiny baby
growing in its mother’s womb, so you
cannot understand the activity of God,
who does all things.
6 Plant your seed in the morning and keep
busy all afternoon, for you don’t know if
profit will come from one activity or
another—or maybe both.
GOD IS RESTORING THE REAL NORMAL
GOD
SPOUSE
ORDER OF PRIORITY
CHILDREN,
FAMILY
FRIENDS, RELATIVES
BUSINESS, WORK, PLANS,
MINISTRY
TIME SPENT
THANK YOU VERY MUCH!
KEEP SAFE AND BE BLESSED!
You can watch my YouTube Economics Videos
Your Everyday Economist