180DC NSUT presents MASTERCLASS 2.0 Spreadsheets of the Uncertains An Ice-Breaker Which political party will win UP Elections 2022? Comment Now! The Problem How many momos plate sold in Delhi ? How many maggies are sold in a week ? Any Guesses? BUT WHAT IS A GUESSTIMATE? UNDERSTANDING WHAT GUESSTIMATE MEANS GUESSTIMATE = GUESS + ESTIMATE It is an estimate made without using adequate or complete information, or in other words, an estimate arrived at by guesswork or conjecture. A guesstimate may be the first rough approximation awaiting a more accurate estimate, or it may be an educated guess at something for which no better information will become available. WHERE CAN IT BE USED PHYSICS Widely use of guesstimation techniques to solve Fermi problems is taught as a useful skill to science students. ECONOMICS ENGINEERING Economic forecasts and statistics are often based on guesstimates. New development of features and release timelines are based on effort guesstimates of tasks. ASTRONOMY The Drake equation is a wellknown guesstimation method. THE FLOW TO SOLVE A GUESSTIMATE Make all the genuine Assumptions and Facts S T A R T Clarifications about the question Estimate each short problem using math and assumptions Break down the problem into smaller problems Consolidate the smaller problems to get the final result F I N I S H LET’S TAKE AN EXAMPLE HOW MANY PLATES OF MOMOS ARE SOLD IN DELHI IN A SINGLE DAY? ESTIMATE NUMBER OF PLATES OF MOMOS SOLD DAILY CLARIFICATIONS BEFORE STARTING Age group of customers Youngsters, 12-30 STATING THE FACTS Population of Delhi ~30 million Ratio of youngsters ~50% ESTIMATE NUMBER OF PLATES OF MOMOS SOLD DAILY MAKING THE ASSUMPTIONS 10% of youngsters prefer eating momos Average person consumes 2 plates in a week i.e. 0.3 plates daily CONSOLIDATE AND CALCULATE! Acknowledging specific cases Combining all the factors and percentages to calculate the estimated number APPLE CASE STUDY HOW MANY APPLE PRODUCTS ARE SOLD NATIONWIDE IN A SINGLE YEAR? ESTIMATE NUMBER OF APPLE PRODUCTS SOLD YEARLY Are we considering internal tradeoffs and second-hand sales? No. What type of customers are we considering? Everyone who holds wealth and can afford. The lifespan of an average product - 5 years Family distribution - 4 persons per household Products we are considering: iPhone, MacBook, iPad, Apple Watch LET’S START SOLVING - FACTS AND ASSUMPTIONS ~1.3 billion population ASSUMPTIONS : ULTRA RICH 50% of all ultra-rich population use an apple product 50% Average 6 products in one household CALCULATIONS : ULTRA RICH Total ultra rich population is 5% of total Indian population = 65mn Assuming 50% of them prefer apple products = 32.5mn Total families = 32.5mn/4 = 8mn families Assuming each family owns 6 products, total products = 8mn x 6 = 48mn products If lifespan is 5 years for a single product Product sold = 48mn/5 years = 9.6mn products/year ASSUMPTIONS : RICH 25% of all rich population use an apple product 25% Average 2 products in one household CALCULATIONS : RICH Total rich population is 15% of total Indian population = 195mn Assuming 25% of them prefer apple products = 48.75mn Total families = 48.75mn/4 = 12.18mn families Assuming each family owns 2 products, total products = 12.18mn x 2 = 24.3mn products If lifespan is 5 years for a single product, Product sold = 24.3mn/5 years = 4.8mn products/year ASSUMPTIONS : MIDDLE CLASS 5% of all middle-class population use an apple product 5% Average 1 products in one household CALCULATIONS : MIDDLE CLASS Total middle class population is 40% of total Indian population = 520mn Assuming 5% of them prefer apple products = 26mn Total families = 26mn/4 = 6.5mn families Assuming each family owns 1 products, total products = 6.5mn x 1 = 6.5mn products If lifespan is 5 years for a single product Product sold = 6.5mn/5 years = 1.3 mn products ASSUMPTIONS : POOR 0% of all poor population use an apple product Average 0 products in one household 0% Total products is also 0 SUM TOTAL 9.6mn + 4.8mn + 1.3mn ~15mn products sold in a single financial year! BREAKING DOWN INTO SOLUTION TREE THANK YOU FOR SHOWING UP!