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Changing Fundementals 5-21-2021 (NVDA)

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Changing Fundamentals
Yanni
$NVDA
5/21 - 6/7
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TRADE STRATEGY
• Unusually good news
• Opportunity with long term technical
analysis.
• Holding above VWAP
• Gap over 3%
• Elevated RVOL 1.5
• Holding gap
• Buying interest is apparent and early
• Trade 2 hold with a reason 2 exit
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Potential Reason2Sell
•
If my price target is reached
○
Against me :
Intraday
uptrend is
broken
Breaking news
in the stock or the market
Unusual seller
on the tape
Daily
Bollinger
Bands failure
1Hr 50 SMA/
EMA Failure
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TRADING PLAN
•
•
•
•
•
Look to buy the dip on day 1
with a clear level to risk off
Take opening drive plays to add
cash flow to the trade on day 2,
day 3 / important TA levels.
Scale out into strength
Reasons 2 Sell
Follow the trend !!!
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BIGGER PICTURE
U.S. Equity Futures, European Markets
Higher
European PMI Data Above Estimates
Saw a bounce in QQQ
Leaned bullish as we reclaimed the 50
day SMA in tech and important levels on
SPY
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SECTOR STRENGTH
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TECHNICAL ANALYSIS (LONG TERM)
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TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
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TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
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INTRADAY
FUNDAMENTALS
•
•
•
May 21st NVDA Trading Is Expected To Begin On A
Stock-Split Adjusted Basis On July 20, NVDA
Announces 4-For-1 Stock Split, Pending
Stockholder Approval On June 3
STATISTICS:
Average Daily Volume: 8.64M
RVOL: ~2
27th
May
(ER) - Sales in Q1 were up 84% Y/Y to
$5.66B, Adjusted EPS of $3.66 came in a solid
$0.38 ahead of estimates. For Q2, revenue is
expected to be $6.3B, plus or minus 2%,
(consensus: $5.48B), non-GAAP gross margin of
66.5%, plus or minus 50 bps, and adjusted
operating expenses of $1.26B. *Triple beat
ATR: 21.74
Short Float: 1.12%
Shares Float: 597.89 M
Institutional Ownership: 67.70%
June 2nd - Nvidia CEO Optimistic Over Regulatory
Support for Arm Acquisition
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VARIABLE CHECKLIST
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Unusually good news ( Stock split + killer ER) ✓
term technical analysis ✓
Holding above VWAP ✓
Gap over 3% ✓
Elevated RVOL ✓
Holding gap ✓
Buying interest is apparent and early ✓
Trade 2 hold with a reason 2 exit ✓
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•
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Option Flow ✓
Strong SMH ✓
Strong tape ✓
Buying at VWAP ✓
Price Upgrades ✓
Strong trend line ✓
Clean TA levels to risk off ✓
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Option Flow
Scale out in 20% lots when
up move is much steeper
than anticipated.
Put on first lot
when dips under
premarket support
and then strongly
moves back
through it on 13.5
RVol
Double position when
price goes through
opening price showing
relative strength to QQQ
Premarket support level
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TRADE MANAGEMENT
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https://youtu.be/I1Kk_-lhUYY?t=2239
37:19
READING THE
TAPE
608 pre market break on day 2 of split news
(5/24/2021)
https://youtu.be/I1Kk_-lhUYY?t=2717 45:17 profit
taking into hourly bolly.
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TRADE REVIEW
•
•
•
What did you learn from this trade?
–
Scalping the open + trading around a core is a goal I touched upon on other playbook trades and
with this NVDA trade I really hit that goal. That type of nimbleness really fits my style and I feel like I
traded this stock very well. I was confident and there was tons of “see it” moments in this trade.
–
Did very well managing my position pre-earnings and avoided a major IV crush, was very patient
with this idea and waited for good prices to get long and risk off of.
–
Net Return: 8.63 R
How could you have done better?
–
SIZE UP! When I have conviction, this is a trade I can 3x 4x my risk as there were multiple variables
that I knew fit my strengths
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TAKE THAT 2ND DAY EARNINGS SCALP!!!!!!!!! Over 635 had a great area to scalp over and was a
complete disservice to myself missing that. (Took the 636 pull in after I missed a major move the
day before )
How would you trade this differently for the next trade?
Would treat the cash flow trades + swing trade as two different trades with 2 different playbooks
Allow my self to be nimble and let the scalps work but at the same time need to take my hands off the
keyboard and allow the swing to work as well.
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