i PROJECT REPORT On “FLOOD CONTROL IN NYABIHU DISTRICT: CASE STUDY OF NKURI SUB-CATCHMENT” By NIYIBIZI Jean Paul Reg. No: UG10105724 Under guidance of Eng. Omar MUNYANEZA (MSc, PhD Fellow) Submitted to the DEPARTMENT OF Civil Engineering in the FACULTY OF APPLIED SCIENCES in partial fulfilment of requirement for the award of degree of BACHELOR OF SCIENCE In Civil Engineering NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF RWANDA FACULTY OF APPLIED SCIENCES DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING October, 2011 ii BONAFIDE CERTIFICATE Certified that this project report titled “FLOOD CONTROL IN NYABIHU DISTRICT: CASE STUDY OF NKURI SUBCATCHMENT” is the bonafide work of Mr. NIYIBIZI Jean Paul, who carried out the research under my supervision. Certified further, that to the best of my knowledge the work reported herein does not form part of any other project report or dissertation on the basis of which a degree or award was conferred on an earlier occasion on this or any other candidate. Signature of the Supervisor Signature of the H.O.D Name of the Supervisor Name of the H.O.D Eng. Omar MUNYANEZA Signature of Internal Guide/ Name: Signature of External Guide/ Name: Submitted for University examination held in October, 2011 at National University of Rwanda, University Avenue, Butare, Rwanda. iii DECLALATION I declare that, the project entitled, “FLOOD CONTROL IN NYABIHU DISTRICT: CASE STUDY OF NKURI SUBCATCHMENT” is original work and has never been submitted to any University or other Institutions of Higher Learning. It is my own research whereby other scholar's writings were cited and references provided. I thus declare this work is mine and was completed successfully under the supervisor Eng. Omar MUNYANEZA (MSc, PhD Fellow). Student signature Name: NIYIBIZI Jean Paul iv ABSTRACT The period of heavy rains has particularly been a real threat to flooding in Western province of Rwanda where people displaced from their homes; and crops and fields were damaged. The operation of the surface water system for flood control is very important and crucial to minimizing the impacts of flood during the real-time flood events. This research aims at analyzing the average annual rainfall and runoff of the flood plain of NKURI sub-catchment, and computes a water balance of this place to improve flood control to provide adequate flood risk reduction system and flood control measures that leads to protection of land and various infrastructures. To achieve this goal, different analysis was performed. The catchment related data has been obtained from RS and GIS where a satellite image analysed for extracting useful data such as sub-catchment delineation. Secondary, slope gradient and land cover/use have been determined. Finally, peak runoff and proposed flood mitigation are determined to insure an adequate flood control in Nkuri sub-catchment. The results showed that Nkuri sub-catchment covers an area of 37.3 km2 with the Nkuri river total length of 3.26 km and average slope of 8.3%. The proposed flood mitigation is to make terraces of uphill mountains within Nkuri sub-catchment, to make Nkuri river diversion and levee construction on Kinoni river. This study offers flood causes and consequences within Nkuri sub-catchment, therefore proposes its flood control system in order to reduce human and economical losses caused by the above flood. Keywords: Flood prone area, water balance, rainfall and runoff data, Flood management, Rwanda. v DEDICATION To the Almighty God, To my parents, To my brother and sisters, To my friends and colleagues; To all who helped to complete this work. vi ACKNOWLEDGEMENT For a better completion of this work, I have received assistance from various areas. I would like to give my thanks to all of them briefly. First of all, I thank the Almighty God for having granted me courage and ability to finish this work. I thank my parents, my sisters Rose and Yvonne and my brother Aimable for their everyday support and advices provided to me during my life. I extend my thanks to NYABIHU District employees, Alphonse MUTABAZI of REMA, department of disaster of MIDIMAR, for their support and good collaboration which has enabled me to fulfil this work adequately. From the deepest of my heart, I would like to thank my supervisor Eng. Omar MUNYANEZA, MSc, PhD Fellow, for his assistance and bearing over me the success of this work comes from him. Further, I would like to give thanks all my friends and colleagues, especially BIZUMUREMYI Dieudonné and SIBOMANA Jean Baptiste for their kind support and encouragement throughout my studies. Thank you all. vii TABLES OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT ................................................................................................................................... ix DEDICATION…………..............................................................................................................ix ACKNOWLEDGMENT..............................................................................................................ix LIST OF TABLES………………………………………………………………………………..x LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS...................................................................................................... ..x CHAPTER I. GENERAL INTRODUCTION ................................................................................ 1 1.1 BACKGROUND ...................................................................................................................... 1 1.2. PROBLEM STATEMENT ...................................................................................................... 2 1.3. RESEARCH OBJECTIVE .................................................................................................... 3 1.3.1 Main objective ....................................................................................................................... 3 1.3.2 Specific objective ................................................................................................................... 3 1.4. SCOPE OF THE RESEACH ................................................................................................... 3 1.5 CONTRIBUTION OF THE RESEARCH ................................................................................ 4 1.6 METHODOLOGY ................................................................................................................... 4 1.7 RESEARCH PROJECT STRUCTURE ................................................................................... 5 CHAPTER 2. LITTERATURE REVIEW ...................................................................................... 6 2.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 6 2.2 Catchment delineation .............................................................................................................. 6 2.2.1 GIS technology ...................................................................................................................... 6 2.2.2 Vegetation cover .................................................................................................................... 7 2.2.3 Hydrological soil groups ........................................................................................................ 7 2.2.4 Land use/land cover ............................................................................................................... 8 2.3 Runoff ....................................................................................................................................... 8 This very basic relationship is the basis for most methods used to estimate runoff. ...................... 9 2.3.1 Surface runoff ........................................................................................................................ 9 2.3.2 Subsurface runoff ................................................................................................................... 9 2.3.3 Factors affecting runoff.......................................................................................................... 9 2.4. Methods of flood control ....................................................................................................... 13 2.4.1 Flood Control by levees ....................................................................................................... 14 viii 2.5.2 Flood control by channel improvement ............................................................................... 14 2.5.3 Soil conservation measures .................................................................................................. 15 2.5 Estimation of rainfall .............................................................................................................. 15 2.5.1 Arithmetic mean method...................................................................................................... 15 2.6 Estimation of peak-runoff into river discharge ....................................................................... 16 2.7 Rational formula method ........................................................................................................ 16 CHAPTER 3. MATERIALS AND METHODS .......................................................................... 18 3.1 Nkuri catchment study area .................................................................................................... 18 3.1.1 Geographical location of Nkuri subcatchment .................................................................... 18 3.1.2 Climate description of Nkuri sub-catchment ....................................................................... 19 3.2 Data collection and processing techniques ............................................................................. 19 3.2.1 Topographical information .................................................................................................. 20 3.2.2 Land cover/land use in Nkuri sub-catchment ...................................................................... 21 3.2.3 Hydrological soil groups in Nkuri subcatchment ................................................................ 22 3.2.4 Determination of runoff coefficient ..................................................................................... 22 3.2.5 Determination of rainfall intensity ....................................................................................... 23 3.2.6 Determination of peak runoff............................................................................................... 24 3.2.7 Flood vulnerability ............................................................................................................... 24 3.2.8 Summary of Natural Disasters in Rwanda from 1974 to 2008 ............................................ 24 3.2.9 Flood hazard identification and mapping ............................................................................ 26 CHAPTER 4. RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS.......................................................................... 29 4.1. CATCHMENT DELINEATION ........................................................................................... 29 4.2 RESULTS ............................................................................................................................... 31 4.3 RAINFALL INTENSITY AND ESTIMATION .................................................................... 31 4.4 DETERMINATION OF TIME OF CONCENTRATION ..................................................... 32 4.5. PEAK RUNOFF ESTIMATION ........................................................................................... 32 4.6 PROPOSED FLOOD MITIGATION AT NKURI RIVER .................................................... 33 CHAPTER 5. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS ..................................................29 5.1 RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS ………………………………………….…………….…..32 5.2 RECOMMENDATIONS.........................................................................................................29 ix LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Runoff coefficients for urban watersheds ......................................................................11 Table 2: Table 2: Nkuri land cover description ............................................................................21 Table 3: Summary of methodology for runoff coefficient calculation…………………….…….22 Table 4: Summary of Natural Disasters in Rwanda from 1974 to 2008.......................................24 Table 5: Land cover/use within Nkuri Sub-catchment…………………………………………..30 Table 6: Summary of determination of runoff coefficient.............................................................31 x LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1.1: Flowchart summarizing processes of this research ..................................................5 Figure 2.1: Triangular irregular networks (TIN) representation..................................................7 Figure 2.2: Mass rainfall curve ................................................................................................12 Figure 2.3: Thiessen polygons......................................................................................................14 Figure 2.4: Levees along a meandering river...............................................................................15 Figure 2.6.3 : Cut-off in a meandering river........................................................................16 Figure 3.1: Localization of Nkuri sub-catchment map ………………………........................18 Figure 3.2.2 : Topographic map ........................................................................................20 Figure 3.3: Nkuri land cover/use.......................................................................................21 Figure 3.3: Meteorological station within Nkuri subcatchment …………………………...........23 Figure 3.4: Number and percentage of people killed............................................................25 Figure 3.5: Total and percentage of people affected ..........................................................25 Figure 3.6: Pictures taken on the site................................................................................27 Figure 4.1: TIN representation of Nkuri catchment..............................................................28 Figure 4.2: Nkuri sub-catchment slope gradient.................................................................29 Figure 4.3: Nkuri subcatchment hydrological soil groups ...................................................31 Figure 4.4 The equation showing the relationship between Kigali city l and Nkuri sub-catchment rainfall intensity ...........................................................................................................31 Figure 4.5: Nkuri river diversion…………………………………………..............................32 xi ABBREVIATIONS CGIS: Centre for Geographical Information System DEM: Digital Elevation Model GIS: Geographical Information System GPS: Global Positioning System GWP: Global Water Partnership HSG: Hydrological Soil Group MIDIMAR: Ministry of Disaster Management and Refugees NUR: National University of Rwanda REMA: Rwanda Environment Management Authority WMO: World Meteorology Organization 1 CHAPTER I. GENERAL INTRODUCTION 1.1 BACKGROUND Flooding has caused the most prevalent and costly natural disasters in the world. Floods often endanger lives and cause financial losses in damage (Kyu-Cheoul Shim, Darrell G. Fontane, Soon-Bo Shim). Floods also cause impacts to society that go beyond cost and facilities; including impacts such as family and community disruptions, dislocation, injuries and unemployment (Mays, 1992). The operation of the surface water system for flood control is very important and crucial to minimizing the impacts of flood during the real-time flood events. Historically, flood plains have been a preferred place for human settlement and socio-economic development because of their proximity to rivers, guaranteeing rich soils, abundant water supplies and means of transport. They replenish wetlands, recharge groundwater and support fisheries and agriculture systems thereby supporting livelihoods. At the same time, floods are also a source of risk when people and their activities are exposed to flooding without factoring their negative impacts. They can produce severe adverse impacts on the economy and people‘s safety. Given their beneficial location, people prefer to stay in flood plains even though they are aware of the flood risks. People in the flood plain have to adapt their life to these conditions. (WMO/GWP, 2007) Surface ―drainage‖ problems occur in nearly flat areas, uneven land surfaces with depression or ridges preventing natural runoff and areas without outlet. Soil with low infiltration rates are susceptible to surface drainage problems. Surface ‖drainage‖ is intended for safe removal of excess water from the land surface through land shaping and channel construction. It uses the head difference that exists due to land elevation to provide necessary hydraulic gradient for the movement of water (Gosh, 1999). Even if, it is a country of great lakes and the headwater of two greatest African rivers: The Nile and Congo, Rwanda is considered as water scarce country (Nahayo, 2007). As Ministry of Agriculture shows, about 80% of the Rwandan population are farmers and cultivators. However, they do not produce enough food to satisfy their needs. This is due to inexperienced persons who must make some improvement on the traditional systems (NIZEYIMANA, 2010). There should be an advanced flood control system to protect cultivated areas, and provide effective use of flood waters. 2 NYABIHU District is situated in western province of Rwanda, and is the place in the whole country that faces most consequences of flooding and erosion in the rainy season; there is a need of a better flood management system. In mid March till April 2010 there has been flood events that caused population to run away from home. On 12th September 2007 flood occurred in Bigogwe sector. More than 10 deaths, 562 displaced families in BIGOGWE and 458 in KANZENZE, thus more than 1000 families were victim of heavy rain (NDAYISABA and MUNYANEZA, 2009). On 9th March 2011 flood destroyed 38 houses, 67 surrounded by flood waters, 3 classes of Nkerima Protestant Primary school, 63 hectares of field completely flooded, etc ( Nyabihu District, 2011). Flood events have been a threat for the human health and socio-economic development; still they result from periodic hydrological process which has to be analyzed. The determination of flood generation requires a perfect hydrological process analysis. Nkuri sub-catchment is surrounded by hills and RURENGELI cell is a flat and lowlying area suitable for human settlement, precisely exposed at high risk of flooding. 1.2. PROBLEM STATEMENT In countries where life of the people is based on the economy of agricultural production, improvement of flood management resources and water conservation may be one of the most important solutions that may lead to increase food security, implies poverty reduction and environmental protection. Majority of Rwandan population, especially in the rural area, depends on agricultural production for their livelihoods. However, there are some places in Rwanda which faced with many problems such as erosion, flooding and poor maintenance of existing irrigation systems. The lack of competent irrigation support services, lack of detailed knowledge about water management in fragile valley agro-ecosystems contribute to flooding. Agricultural Engineers are also facing the problem of knowing the periodical flood occurrences (water balance studies) in order to help them to select the type of crops to cultivate in selected land exposed to flood risk to meet their plan of Land consolidation through STA (Agriculture Transformation Strategies). 3 If those problems are not treated well, they can cause the decreasing of crop production and increase in land degradation in the country. Rwanda government needs to take measures for avoiding those problems in order to get the sufficient crop production. There are many diseases that are transmitted in water flooding may cause diseases, such as bilharziasis and malaria. Urban development can also create obstructions to runoff, such as sanitary landfills, bridges, inadequate drainage, obstructions of runoff and conduits, and clogging (Tucci, 2007). Particularly, on this selected place one may find that the flooding waters are related to ineffective drainage systems, where water is directly conveyed to households and fields. Huge damages happen on this place every year. It is in this regards that we selected this topic as BSc final year research project to answer some of these problems by giving our contribution to flood management system and mitigation measures in one of the most flooded place in Rwanda. 1.3. RESEARCH OBJECTIVE 1.3.1 Main objective The main objective of this research is to establish flood management system in Nyabihu District, case study of NKURI sub-catchment located in Western Province of Rwanda. 1.3.2 Specific objective The specific objectives of the study are: To delineate the flood prone area in Nkuri sub-catchment; Determine the values of runoff coefficient within Nkuri sub-catchment using SCS method and peak runoff; and To provide flood mitigation to reduce flood risk in Nkuri sub-catchment. 1.4. SCOPE OF THE RESEACH The main objective of this research was achieved by determining the total flood prone area in NKURI subcatchment. The flood risk reduction system and flood control measures have been 4 provided. There are obstacles that prevent the effectiveness of this study. Among them we can state insufficient timeframe and budget limitation. 1.5 CONTRIBUTION OF THE RESEARCH The output of this research is to provide an appropriate flood management system. This should be a tool that may prevent and minimize losses caused by flooding in NYABIHU District. It should contribute to the improvement of livelihood of surrounding population, for poverty reduction and sustainable environmental development. Methods and techniques used in this research should be used in other similar flood plains in Rwanda. Shortly, this research should make a crucial contribution allowing early decisions for flood management in Rwanda. 1.6 METHODOLOGY In order to achieve the objective of this research, the following methodology is to be taken into consideration: - Extensive literature review on flood management - Catchment delineation was determined using Digital Elevation Model map by extracting useful data such as slope; sub-catchments identification, soil classes, land use and land cover with satellite image. - Rainfall amount of the catchment is developed using Excel, for calculating the average daily rainfall within catchment and to compute runoff depths in Nkuri sub-catchment. - Catchment data has been computed using computer software Excel and Geographic Information System (GIS) software. - Global Positioning System (GPS) and GIS were used to develop flood mitigation within Nkuri sub-catchment. The methodology for the research work consists of three phases: Data collection, data preprocessing and data analysis. 5 The data collection phase constitutes literature review on water balance both using library and internet, hydrological and meteorological data collection from hydro meteorological stations installed in Nkuri sub-catchment and satellite images retrieval. In the pre-processing phase, minor analysis work such as calculation of average rainfall over Nkuri sub-catchment using arithmetic mean method, flood control and drainage system. The final analysis mainly focuses on achievement of the research objectives. Figure 1.1: Flowchart summarizing the processes of this research 1.7 RESEARCH PROJECT STRUCTURE This research project is containing four chapters: The first chapter fosters on the importance of the selected problem and gives a clear statement of the problem. Moreover, it describes shortly objectives of this research and gives the way to perform them, The second chapter contains reviews, explanations of different expressions used in this research project, The third chapter briefly describes the study area and the methodology in use to achieve the goal of this research project, The fourth chapter presents the obtained results, their analysis and discussion. Eventually, conclusion and recommendations, after gaining results of this research project and make a discussion about them, will be summarised before the end of this project presentation. 6 CHAPTER 2. LITTERATURE REVIEW 2.1 Introduction Flooding is caused by the meteorological and hydrological conditions. Our knowledge of longterm weather patterns is very limited owing to the many factors involved in meteorological phenomena and the interdependence of the physical processes affecting the earth‘s atmosphere. The hydrological conditions leading to flooding may be natural or artificial. The natural conditions are those occurring as a result of the watershed in its natural state. These conditions include: relief, precipitation type, vegetation cover, and drainage capacity (Tucci, 2007). Chapter one offers general overview of hydrologic parameters to be considered in computations to determine volumes and peak rates of stormwater runoff as well as the hydraulic calculations for sizing floods conveyance systems. When analyzing an area for design purposes, urbanization of the full watershed should be considered. Zoning maps, land use plans, and master plans should be used as aids in establishing the anticipated surface character of the ultimate development. The selection of design runoff coefficients and/or percent impervious cover factors are explained in the following discussions. 2.2 Catchment delineation A catchment area (watershed or drainage basin) is a unit of land from which runoff flows to common outlet (Anyemedu, 2008). Accurate delineation of a catchment/watershed plays an extremely important role in the management of the watershed (G.Savant,2002). The main delineated catchment characteristics are land use, land change, soil types, geology and river flows are analyzed from which appropriate conclusions are drawn. 2.2.1 GIS technology A Geographic Information System (GIS) is a computer-based system for capturing and processing spatially distributed data of geographic nature (Mohan, 1991). It is a computer-assisted system for the acquisition, storage, analysis and display of geographic data( topography, climatology, land-use, soil type, etc) (Eastman, 1997). The core of the system is the database, a collection of maps and associated information in digital format. Since the database is concerned with earth‘s surface features, two elements can be distinguished i.e the coordinates and the attribute of each point. GIS is a perfect tool for management of spatially 7 distributed data and the need to solve complex natural resources problems through modelling techniques. TIN (Triangular Irregular Networks) is the modelling made in a three dimension analysis. TINs are a form of vector based digital geographic data and are constructed by triangulating a set of vertices (points). The vertices are connected with a series of edges to form a network of triangles (ArcGIS 9 help). Figure 2.1: Triangular irregular networks (TIN) representation 2.2.2 Vegetation cover Vegetation cover has the effect of intercepting part of the precipitation that can generate runoff and protecting the soil against erosion. Loss of that cover through farming use has led to more frequent flooding owing to precipitation not being intercepted and clogging of the rivers(C.E.M Tucci, 2007). 2.2.3 Hydrological soil groups (-HSG-) reflects the infiltration rate of the soil, the permeability of any restrictive layer(s), and the moisture-holding capacity of the soil profile to a depth of 60 inches. The infiltration rate of the soil affects runoff. Generally, the higher the rate of infiltration, the lower the quantity of stormwater runoff. Fine textured soils such as clay produce a greater rate of runoff than coarsegrained soils such as sand. The hydrologic soils groups are defined as follows (Source: NEH-4) Group A: (Low runoff potential): Soils having a low runoff potential and high infiltration rates even when thoroughly wetted and consisting chiefly of deep, well to excessively drained sands or gravels and having a high rate of water transmission. Group B: Soils having moderate infiltration rates when thoroughly wetted and consisting chiefly of moderately deep to deep, moderately well to well drained soils with moderately fine to moderately coarse textures. These soils have a moderate rate of water transmission. 8 Group C: Soils having slow infiltration rates when thoroughly wetted and consisting chiefly of soils with a layer that impedes downward movement of water, or soils with moderately fine to fine textures. These soils have a slow rate of water transmission. Group D: (High runoff potential): Soils having very slow infiltration rates when thoroughly wetted and consisting chiefly of clay soils with a high swelling potential, soils with a permanent high water table, soils with a clay pan or clay layer at or near the surface, and shallow soils over nearly impervious material. These soils have a very slow rate of water transmission. The best data for identifying the Soil Hydrologic Group are the field-derived sub-soil parameters of texture, structure and colour. The Antecedent Moisture Condition is an index of basin wetness. The rainfall-runoff transformation is a non linear process. The most important cause of non linearity is represented by the effect of antecedent conditions; consequently the runoff coefficient depends on the initial conditions (Musoni, 2009). 2.2.4 Land use/land cover ―Land Use‖ refers to human activities that take place on the earth‘s surface (how the land is being used) such as residential housing or agricultural cropping. ―Land Cover‖ refers to natural or man-made physical properties of the land surface (what the land is covered with) such as coniferous forest or impervious surfaces. Both systems utilize multiple and varying classification schema with distinct overlaps and important differences. 2.3 Runoff When rain falls on the earth‘s surface, some of that rain is intercepted by the surfaces of vegetation located in its path (interception). Depending on soil characteristics and amount of rainfall, some or all of the remaining rainfall will enter the ground through pores in the surface soils (infiltration). As the remaining water, if any, flows overland, irregularities in the surface of the land trap some of this water as depression storage. The portion of this overland flow that reaches the watershed outlet is called direct runoff, or stormwater runoff. This relationship can be expressed as a storm event water balance, by the following equation: Runoff = Precipitation - Interception - Infiltration - Depression Storage (2.1) 9 This very basic relationship is the basis for most methods used to estimate runoff. 2.3.1 Surface runoff Surface runoff or overland runoff is that part of runoff that travels over the surface of the ground to reach a stream channel and through the channel to the basin outlet. Surface runoff includes the precipitation directly falling over the channel reach (Anyemedu, 2008). Storm water runoff can lead to flooding and impacts in urban areas by means of two processes, separately or in combination. Flooding of riverside areas: natural flooding that occurs in the flood plains of rivers owing to temporal and spatial variations in precipitation and runoff in the catchment area; Flooding due to urbanization: flooding from the urban drainage system due to the effect of soil impermeabilization, canalization or obstruction of water flow (Tucci, 2007). 2.3.2 Subsurface runoff Subsurface runoff is that part of the runoff that travels under the ground to reach a stream channel and to the basin outlet. It consists of two parts: one part moves laterally through the upper soil horizons within the unsaturated zone or through the shallow perched saturated zone towards the stream channel. This is known as the subsurface flow, interflow or through flow. Another part infiltrates deeper to the saturated zone to form the groundwater flow. This flow discharges into the stream channel as the base flow (Anyemedu, 2008). In case of lack of adequate drainage, subsurface runoff can be a source of floods. 2.3.3 Factors affecting runoff 2.3.3.1 Soil type Soil is a complex, multi-phase, heterogeneous system of various gases, liquids and solids and as a result, the concept of soil can be interpreted in many different ways. In surface water hydrology analysis, the most important soil properties are the amount and rate of passage of infiltrated rainfall through the surface layers of soil. In particular, the soil storage capacity requires a detailed look at the relationship of water content to the soil void space. As it was said by Baird et al. (1997) the runoff generation in the area is also associated with the porosity of a soil such as the peat soil layering as the deeper layers may be an important overall contributor to runoff. The highest infiltration capacities are observed in loose, sandy soils while 10 heavy clay or loamy soils have considerable smaller infiltration capacities. For example, a change in land use by surface vegetation increases the infiltration capacity and reduces surface runoff (RAGHUNATH, 2006). 2.3.3.2 Runoff Coefficient The runoff coefficient is a function of the ground cover and a host of other hydrologic abstractions. It relates the estimated peak discharge to a theoretical maximum. If the catchment is occupied by varying amounts of different land cover due to land use, a composite coefficient may be used. It is estimated as the ratio between quick flow and rainfall volume. This coefficient varies with: Topography, Land use, Vegetal cover, Soil type, And moisture content of the soil. C RunoffVolume Ra inf allVolume R P (2.2) Table I: Runoff coefficients for urban watersheds (Source: Hagemana, 2006) Runoff coefficient for urban watersheds Type of drainage area Range of Runoff coefficient for urban watersheds runoff Type of drainage area coefficient Business: Range coefficient Residential: -Downtown areas 0.70-0.95 -Single-family areas 0.30-0.50 -Neighbourhood areas 0.30-0.70 -Multi-units, detached 0.40-0.60 -Multi-units, attached 0.60-0.75 -Suburban 0.35-0.40 Industrial: -light areas 0.30-0.80 of runoff 11 -Heavy areas 0.60-0.90 -Apartment dwelling 0.30-0.70 area -Parks, cemeteries 0.10-0.25 Lawns: -Playgrounds 0.30-0.40 -Sandy soil, flat 2% -Railroad yards 0.30-0.40 -Sandy soil, average 0.10-0.15 0.05-0.10 2-7% Unimproved areas: -Sandy soil, steep 7% 0.15-0.20 -Sand or sandy loam 0.15-0.20 -Heavy soil, flat 2% 0.13-0.17 soil, 0-3% -Sand or sandy loam 0.20-0.25 -Heavy soil, average 0.18-0.22 soil, 3-5% 2-7% -Black soil, 0-3% 0.18-0.25 -Heavy soil, steep 7% 0.25-0.35 -Black soil, 3-5% 0.25-0.30 Streets -Black soil, >5% 0.70-0.80 -Asphaltic 0.85-0.95 -Deep sand area 0.05-0.15 -Concrete 0.90-0.95 -Steep grassed slopes 0.70 -Brick 0.70-0.85 -Pastures 0.10-0.60 -Drives and walks 0.75-0.95 -Arable land 0.30-0.80 -Roofs 0.75-0.95 2.3.3.3 Rainfall Intensity A rainfall is a part of precipitation on liquid state; forming drops over 0.5mm to about 6mm diameter. Rain is considered light when rate of fall is less than 2.5mm/hr; moderate 2.5 to 7.5mm/hr and heavy when rate is over 7.5mm/hr (Anyemedu, 2008). The Rainfall measurement is made with an instrument called rain gauge (pluviometer) and the aim of measurement is to intercept precipitation over a known carefully defined area bounded by the rain gauge rim. 12 Rainfall is measured in millimetres forming the vertical depth of water accumulated on level surface during an interval of time, if all the rainfall remained where it fell. One of most convenient method used to estimate the intensity and sequence of rainfall during past storms at several rain gauge stations within a catchment is ―mass rainfall curves‖. A mass rainfall curve is a plot of accumulated total rainfall up to known time intervals against this time interval (Fig. 3)(GOSH, 1999). Figure 2.2 : Mass rainfall curve Generally, there may be several raingauge stations within a catchment. Having obtained directly and by interpolation, the mass rainfall of all raingauge stations available in a catchment, the next step is to determine the influence area of each, that is to say the area over which the mass rainfall curve obtained at a particular station may considered to be applicable. A very good method of doing so is to divide up the area into what are known as Thiessen polygons (Fig. 4). Each polygon represents the influence area of the station which is located within that polygon(GOSH, 1999). Figure 2.3 : Thiessen polygons Bellow is a represented an expression of rainfall intensity. It is expressed in depth per unit time, usually mm per hour. 13 (2.3) Where ∆h: depth of precipitation (mm) ∆t: rainfall duration (h) 2.4. Methods of flood control A flood is an unusual high stage of a river overflowing its banks and inundating the marginal lands. This is due to severe storm of unusual meteorological combination, sometimes combined with melting of accumulated snow on the catchment. This may also be due to shifting of the course of the river, earthquake causing bank erosion, or blocking of river, or breaching of the river flood banks. The damages due to the devastating floods can be minimized by the following flood control measures, singly or in combination. (i) by confining the flow between high banks by constructing levees (flood banks) , dykes, or flood walls. (ii) by channel improvement by cutting, straightening or deepening and following river training works. (iii) by diversion of a portion of the flood through bypasses or flood ways. In some cases a fuse plug levee is provided. It is a low section of levee, which when once over topped, will wash out rapidly and develop full discharge capacity into the flood-way. In other locations, a concrete sill, weir or spillway controlled by stop logs or needles may be provided so that the overflow occurs at a definite river stage. Sometimes dynamiting a section of levee is resorted to bypass the flood. (iv) by providing a temporary storage of the peak floods by constructing upstream reservoirs and retarding basins (detention basins). (v) by adopting soil conservation measures (land management) in the catchment area. (vi) by temporary and permanent evacuation of the flood plain, and flood plain zoning by enacting legislation. (vii) by flood proofing of specific properties by constructing a ring levee or flood wall around the property. (viii) by setting up flood forecasting—short term, long term, rhythm signals and radar, and warning centres at vulnerable areas.(RAGHUNATH,2006) 14 2.4.1 Flood Control by levees The design and construction of levees are similar to those of an earth dam. The levees are constructed beyond the meander belt of a river, and they tame a river not to change its course. As far as possible, there should be very few curves in their alignment. They require constant watch and after the floods recede, repairs and restoration of levees should be resorted too. A height is assumed and the discharge through the proper channel is computed for the assumed high water flow, which is the level of the top of bank less the free board. This flow subtracted from the estimated probable maximum flood discharge gives the discharge to be passed over the flood ways between the proper channel and the levees. Area of the flood ways is then obtained by dividing it by the velocity of flow. The spacing of levees thus obtained, should give a minimum value for the cost of levees and the value of the submerged land in the flood way (RAGHUNATH, 2006). The effects of levees on flood flow are: (i) increase in the rate of flood flow (ii) increase in the flood water elevation (iii) increase in the carrying capacity of the channel (iv) increase in the scouring action (v) decrease of surface slope of stream above the leveed section Figure 2.4 : Levees along a meandering river Figure 2.5 : Ring levees to protect the city 2.5.2 Flood control by channel improvement Channel improvement increases the discharging capacity of the stream thereby decreasing the height and duration of the flood. Flood carrying capacity can be increased either by increasing the cross-sectional area or by increasing the velocity along the river. 15 Deepening is preferred to widening since the hydraulic mean radius increases more with depth (for the same increase in the sectional area) thus increasing the velocity. The channel velocity (given by Manning‘s or Chezy‘s formulae) is affected by hydraulic mean radius, slope of river bed and roughness of the bed and sides. Roughness can be reduced by (i) removing sand bars. (ii) prevention of cropping on river beds near banks. (iii) removal of fallen trees and other snags. (iv) elimination of sharp bends of meanders by providing cutoffs (Fig. 7). In a stream, deepening results in the loss of slope as its outlet can not usually be lowered (H.M.RAGHUNATH, 2006). Figure 2.6.3 : Cut-off in a meandering river 2.5.3 Soil conservation measures The best way to prevent silt deposition is to arrest silt at the place of its origin, i.e., by undertaking soil conservation measures in the catchment area. Soil conservation measures for the entire catchment like contour bunds, check dams, terraces, gully plugging, vegetative cover (strip croping), afforestation, land management, stream bank protection, etc. are very necessary to retard the velocity of runoff, to control soil erosion, to absorb more water in the soil and to protect the dams and reservoirs from being silted up (RAGHUNATH,2006). 2.5 Estimation of rainfall 2.5.1 Arithmetic mean method It is a method that consists of computing the arithmetic average of n values of the precipitation for all stations within the area irrespective of the area covered by each rain gauge. It provides 16 results of reasonable range in case when the rain gauges are evenly spaced over the area and the individual gauge value does not vary much from the mean value. (2.4) Where: P= Precipitation in mm n= total number of rain gauges 2.6 Estimation of peak-runoff into river discharge The discharge (flow rate of a river/stream) is a volume of water that passes a section of the river in a unit of time (Encarta, 2009). Despite different methods of measurement in situ that are used to find a hydrograph curve and analyze it to extract baseflow and runoff contribution from stream discharge, other theoretical method has been detailed for peak runoff computation into river discharge.(Ufiteyezu, 2010). 2.7 Rational formula method An important formula for determining the peak runoff rate is the Rational formula. The Irish engineer, Mulvaney (1850), was probably the first to publish the principles on which the method is based on. Valid criticisms have been raised about the adequacy of this formula; however it continues to be used because of its simplicity (Munyaneza, 1010). The Rational Formula reads: (2.5) Where: Qp = Peak runoff rate [m³/sec], C = Runoff coefficient [-], I = Rainfall intensity [mm/hr], A = Drainage area [km²] The Rational Formula follows these assumptions: Consideration of the entire drainage area as a single unit, Estimation of flow at the most downstream point only, Rainfall is uniformly distributed over the drainage area. 17 The predicted peak discharge has the same probability of occurrence (return period) as the used rainfall intensity (I), The runoff coefficient (C) is constant during the rain storm, and The recession time is equal to the time of rise. The maximum runoff rate in a catchment is reached when all parts of the watershed are contributing to the outflow. This happens when the time of concentration, the time after which the runoff rate equals the excess rainfall rate, is reached. In addition, the Kirpich/Ramser formula is mostly used to calculate the time of concentration (Dawod and Koshak, 2011): (2.6) Where: tc = Time of concentration [min], L = Length of main river [m], S = Slope of main stream [m/m] 18 CHAPTER 3. MATERIALS AND METHODS 3.1 Nkuri catchment study area 3.1.1 Geographical location of Nkuri subcatchment Figure 3.1: Localization of Nkuri sub-catchment map (Source: CGIS-NUR) Globally, this study has been focusing on Nkuri catchment located in Western Province of Rwanda in Nyabihu district. It is a district which has recently faced various disasters. Rwanda is a small and mountainous country in Central Africa, bordered by Burundi in the South, Democratic Republic of Congo in the West, Uganda in the North and Tanzania in the East. Its total area is about 26 338 km2 out of which about 24,948 km2 is land and 1,390 km2 is covered 19 by water (5.3%). In 2007 the population of Rwanda was estimated to be 9.3 million (NISR., 2008). This gives an estimated population density of about 342 persons/km2 which is the highest in Africa (NELSAP, 2006). Nkuri catchment is located in southern part of Rwanda, its area is around 38.413039 km2 and its coordinates ranging from 1o23‘ to 1o33‘ latitude South and from 29o43‘ to 29o51‘ longitude East. 3.1.2 Climate description of Nkuri sub-catchment Nkuri catchment is located in Rwanda which has a moderate climate with relatively high rainfall; an annual average temperature of 15oC and an annual cycle of four seasons: A short rainy season, locally known as ―Umuhindo‖ runs from September to November, with November characterized by heavy precipitation; A short dry season, locally known as ―Urugaryi‖ runs from December to February; A long rainy season, locally known as ―Itumba‖ runs from March to May, this bringing about 14 to 61% of the total annual precipitation; and A long dry season, locally known as ―Icyi‖ which runs from June to August. The mean annual rainfall in Rwanda is about 1100 mm and varies from 700 mm in the SouthWest to about 1600 mm/year in the North-West. In Nkuri catchment, the mean annual rainfall and temperature are approximately 1231 mm/a and 15oC, respectively. The annual average of the relative soil moisture, calculated over the 30 years. 3.2 Data collection and processing techniques Data collection has been made in three ways, using Global Positioning System (GPS), meteorological precipitation data from Rwanda Meteorology and various data from NUR_GIS. Today, the Rwanda Meteorological Service doesn't have enough capacity to deliver sufficient data, information and advisories due to the lack of inadequate observing station network and sufficient data processing equipment. Moreover, the role of climate information and products into disaster risk reduction is not very well established in Rwanda. Still, there is a problem of acquiring complete historical meteorological data. 20 3.2.1 Topographical information The topography of Nkuri sub-catchment area represents the configuration of its physical surface, including natural and human-made features. It is an important element of this catchment study; it has been described in terms of slope, aspect, and elevation. These three characteristics affect the movement, storage and quality of water in Nkuri catchment. Figure 3.2 : Topographic map (Source: CGIS_NUR) In this study, Nkuri catchment delineation has been performed by use of GIS tools and DEM map collected from CGIS_NUR. To have an idea of 3D topographic configuration, TIN representation has been designed from contour lines map. 21 3.2.2 Land cover/land use in Nkuri sub-catchment Land cover and land use are sometimes defined as the same. Generally, land cover is presented as vegetation and water body but when these covers are used by the human being in their activities; they are now considered as land use, for instance: agriculture, forest and urban. Vegetation contributes to a healthy catchment by intercepting runoff, allowing some or all of the runoff to filter gradually into soils or return to atmosphere. The Nkuri land cover map used in this study was extracted from Rwanda land cover map. Moreover, it has been georeferenced and digitalized to manipulate it easily by use of GIS technology. In Nkuri catchment, land cover contains different cover types which may be grouped into: Agriculture: small grain, good practice Forest: woodland, mature, good Building: urban areas The figure 3.3 shows Nkuri sub-catchment land cover/use summarized in Table 2. Figure 3.3: Nkuri sub-catchment land cover/use 22 Table 2: Nkuri land cover description (ArcGIS, 2011) Land cover Land cover name ID Land use/ Land cover AG-5 Rain fed Herbaceous Crop-Two crop year AG-8 Tea plantation AG-5/9 Combination of Rain fed Herbaceous Crop-Two crop per year and Small Shrub Plantation AG-4C Isolated Rainfed Herbaceous Crop AG-9/5 Combination of Shrub Plantation and Rain fed Herbaceous Crop- Agriculture: grain, good practice Two crop per year gfhgkjhkh AG-9/5/6 Combination of shrub plantation and Rain fed herbaceous CropTwo crop per year, remaining forest plantation (Eucalyptus Forest: or Pinus and Cypress) AG-5/6 Forest Plantation - (Eucalyptus or Pinus and Cypress) Woodland, mature, good 3.2.3 Hydrological soil groups in Nkuri subcatchment The type of soil in a catchment plays an important role in the catchment‘s hydrology. The composition and texture of the soil determines whether rainfall or irrigation water will be retained in the soil and released gradually, percolating downward to the groundwater, or if these inputs of water instead contribute to surface runoff, leading to increased erosion. The hydrological soil group (HSG) map of the study area was extracted from a map called ‗Soil texture classes of the dominant soil units in Rwanda (Verdoodt A, et al., 2003) by use of GIS technology. The results are shown in the figure 16. 3.2.4 Determination of runoff coefficient The runoff coefficient is defined as either the ratio of total depth of rainfall, or as the ratio of peak rate of runoff to rainfall intensity for the time of concentration (Wanielista and Yousef., 1993). In this study, a runoff coefficient of Nkuri subcatchment have been estimated after making an overlay of land cover map and hydrological soil group map by use of ArcMap processing tools. 23 An average of runoff coefficient have been obtained by making a summation of products of partial areas (Ai) and partial rainfall coefficients (Ci) under total area. The summary of these processes has been represented in an appropriate Table 2. Table 3: Summary of methodology for runoff coefficient calculation Land cover Hydrological soil Area (Ai) group Runoff coefficient (Ai)× (Ci) (Ci) 3.2.5 Determination of rainfall intensity In purpose of gathering meteorological data on Nkuri subcatchment, Rwankeri station records meteorological data (rainfall, temperature, relative humidity, soil moisture, wind speed and direction) in Nkuri subcatchment. Average of rainfall intensity on Nkuri catchment has been determined after calculation of average rainfall collected from Rwankeri meteorological station by use of arithmetic mean method and divide it with duration of that rainfall on the whole catchment. In this research, the rainfall duration was considered as equal to the time of concentration, formula (2.6). Figure 3.4: Meteorological station within Nkuri subcatchment. 24 3.2.6 Determination of peak runoff After getting rainfall intensity on Nkuri subcatchment, information on Nkuri subcatchment describing topographical configuration and runoff coefficient from land cover and HSG; peak surface runoff is calculated by use of Rational formula (2.5). 3.2.7 Flood vulnerability From December 2010-August12,2011, floods have taken life of 14 people, damaged 3 houses and demolished 106 houses and a land area of 162.5 ha in this district (MIDIMAR,2011). In 1974 floods affected 1,900,000 people in Rwanda 1,900,000. It is the most disastrous flood in Rwanda during past 30years (MUTABAZI, 2008). From 1974-2008 floods happened in six events where 34,516 people were affected and 111 people died. 3.2.8 Summary of Natural Disasters in Rwanda from 1974 to 2008 The total number of disasters (Droughts, earthquake, epidemic, flood, landslides), registered since 1974 is 29, they are shown in the table 4. These disasters killed 823 people and affected 6,124,424 people; Epidemics are more frequent with 41% followed by floods: 28%, Drought: 21% and earthquake: 7%. Epidemics kill more people: 39% followed by drought: 29%, floods: 19% and Earthquake 10%; Climate related disasters are almost responsible to affect more people with 68% by Drought and 32% by floods. The following table shows clearly the natural distasters situation within Rwanda. It shows that floods occupy an important role in disasters that Rwanda has faced throughout 34 years. 25 Table 4: Summary of Natural Disasters in Rwanda from 1974 to 2008 People killed Number Disaster Category of Events People affected Av. per Av. Total event Total per event Drought Drought 6 237 39.5 4,156,545 692,757.5 Earthquake Earthquake 2 81 40.5 2,286 1,143 Enteric 7 126 18 6,037 862.4 Meningitis 5 196 39.2 1,362 272.4 Unspecified 6 111 18.5 34,516 5,752.7 Flood 2 48 24 1,921,678 960,839 Landslide 1 24 24 2,000 29 823 Diarrhoeal/ Epidemic Flood Slides Total 2,000 6,124,424 24; 3% 159; 19% 237; 29% Drought Earthquake Epidemic (Diarrhoeal, Enteric and Meningitis) Flood including unspecified Slides 81; 10% 322; 39% Figure 3.5: Number and percentage of people killed 26 Data source: http://www.emdat.be/Database/CountryProfile/countryprofile.php 2000; 0% 1956194; 32% Drought Earthquake Epidemic (Diarrhoeal, Enteric and Meningitis) Flood including unspecified 7399; 0% 2286; 0% Slides 4156545; 68% Figure 3.6: Total and percentage of people affected Data source: http://www.emdat.be/Database/CountryProfile/countryprofile.php 3.2.9 Flood hazard identification and mapping Nkuri subcatchment flood zones have been identified within Nkuri subcatchment using GPS (Global Positioning System), a satellite receiving system which permits to identify position of any point on the earth surface. The GPS used for this study is GPS Map30x model. After getting these points, they have been used to locate the flood zones. The flood map shows zones in which flood waters were still present from April 2011 till August 2011. 3.2.9.1 Flood hazard and explosure analysis: The purpose of flood hazard and explosure analysis is to describe the process for identification of flood-prone areas and to identify the elements that are exposed to flooding. Nkuri settlement is situated in a place where the major national road goes through this settlement. After passing through the culvert of this road this road, water is directly flushed in people‘s homes, water coming from the Nkuri river stagnate in various places and create ponds (Fig. 3.7). Another part of the Nkuri river passes through temporary canals made by local people. These canals do not offer appropriate drainage. Water destroys various structures and fields. 27 Water enters in houses and people are obliged to flee their homes. During this year 2011 from January till August, 89 houses have been affected by recent floods, 10 houses destroyed and 2people dead. In order to fight against flooding damages, local people have tried to take local measures among them we can say: -Creating river drainage -Using sandbags for flood protection. These measures do not offer adequate flood control as can be seen in the Figure 3.7. 1. Nkuri river canal from road culvert. 2. Sandbag usage for routing river water. 3. Sandbag usage for routing flood waters. 4. Nkuri river waters destroying road. 28 5. Waters in buildings and population fields Figure 3.7: Pictures taken on the site in September 2011 by Niyibizi Jean Paul. The exposed buildings are 78 in 260 houses. This proportion represents 29.23% of all buildings in the study area. This proportion is a basic tool for the future flood mitigation measures especially when relocating the concerned population by the Government of Rwanda. However it is not easy to expect that relocation will be economically reasonable regarding compensation, expropriation and infrastructure provision for resettlement. The alternative available is relocating only those buildings that are in floods zones, or making diversion of Nkuri river. 29 CHAPTER 4. RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS 4.1. CATCHMENT DELINEATION The purpose of TIN in this study is to provide basic tool from which topographic data should be extracted. TIN map for 3D configuration (Fig 14) and slope gradient map of Nkuri Subcatchment (Fig 15). Figure 4.1: TIN representation of Nkuri catchment The folowing figure illustrates the Slope gradient in Nkuri Sub-catchment. 30 Figure 4.2: Nkuri sub-catchment slope gradient (in degrees) From GIS technology offers topographic conditions of this site as mountainous with elevation ranging from 2199 at its junction with KINONI river 2278 m at its source.The longitudinal slopes of the valleys varies from 6 to 13% upstream and from 1 to 18% downstream (average slope is between 4 and 6%). The slope of main stream from a profile in the figure 8 is around 8.3% and the total area which is around 37.28km2 has been calculated by use of Arc map geometry analysis of Nkuri polygon boundary. The main stream length is around 3256.79m. The value of Ci was obtained by use of Tables 2 and 3. 31 4.2 Hydrological soil groups of Nkuri sub-catchment Figure 4.3: Nkuri sub-catchment hydrological soil groups 4.3 RAINFALL INTENSITY AND ESTIMATION The rainfall intensity is 94, estimated in litres per second per hectare, It has been found according to the equation described in the following figure, where the rainfall of Nkuri sub-catchment is estimated according to rainfall intensity of Kigali city (72). Figure 4.4 The equation showing the relationship between Kigali city and Nkuri sub-catchment rainfall intensity. 32 4.4 DETERMINATION OF TIME OF CONCENTRATION The Kirpich/Ramser formula (2.3) has been used to calculate the time of concentration: With L=3.257 km and S=12.3% tc=0.0195*3256.791610.77*0.083-0.385=25.76527265minutes The following table shows the determination of runoff coefficient. Table 6: Summary of determination of runoff coefficient Land cover Agriculture: Small grain, good practice Forest: Woodland, mature, good Buildings ∑ Hydrological Area (Ai) Runoff soil group coefficient (Ci) km2 (Ai)× (Ci) A 2.931626823 0.21x1.28=0.2688 0.78802129 Ac 8.37083175 0.21x1.3=0.273 2.285237068 C 6.808089 0.21x1.7=0.357 2.430487773 E 3.84990615 0.21x1.16=0.2436 0.937837138 A 5.863253646 0.1x1.25=0.127 Ac 2.79027725 0.1x1.7=0.17 D 1.274027 1 37.283645 0.744633213 0.474347132 1.274027 8.934590614 4.5. PEAK RUNOFF ESTIMATION Peak runoff of the catchment calculated using the equation (2.5) is the following: Qp=0.28*0.23968335*94*37.28=235.49 l.s ha 33 4.6 PROPOSED FLOOD MITIGATION AT NKURI RIVER Diversion point Figure 4.5: Nkuri river diversion 4.7 DISCUSSION There should be a water diversion for two main purpose: The first one is that water can pass to an alternate path by gravity which can reduce damages caused by the present Nkuri river flow passage. Secondary by meeting the high pick runoff found at Nkuri river 6.32 l/s. The delienation of Nkuri subcatchment has been determined where the subcatchment area of has been calculated using ArcGIS. The proposed mitigation is Nkuri river diversion so that water flow by gravity safely to people. The second is making levee along Kinoni river so that water should not cause flooding into the population fields. The third is establishing terraces on the up hills in order to reduce surface runoff which highly contribute to flood generation in the Rurengeli cell. The calculated peak runoff should be a tool for hydraulic stucture design. 34 CHAPTER 5 CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS 5.1. CONCLUSION The objective of this study has been achieved; because the study shows clearly the flood delieation where the floods surfaces are calculated using ArcGIS. The delienation of Nkuri subcatchment has been determined where the subcatchment area of has been calculated using ArcGIS. The Nkuri Sub-catchment area is 37.28 km2 with the Nkuri river total length of 3256.79161m and average slope of 8.3%. The calculated peak runoff of 6.32 l/s is a value on which hydraulic structures can be design from. It is a great value this shows how much rainfall waters are important on the catchment surface. This is the major cause of erosion and floods within this catchment. The flood are causes by poor drainage system which conveys water to fields and home of the population, river diversion and levee construction have been proposed to meet an adequate flood control within Nkuri Sub-catchment. The proposed flood mitigation also consists of making terraces of uphill mountains within Nkuri sub-catchment, in order to reduce runoff. 5.2. RECOMMENDATIONS Further research in flood management should be promoted. Rwanda as a small country with a high rate of population growth is mostly facing a problem of the lack of land. 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