Siemens Industrial Turbomachinery AB Big Data and Diagnostics Dr. Christer Karlsson, Advisory Expert Remote Diagnostics © Siemens AG 2014. All rights reserved. Tiles of life © Siemens AG 2014. All rights reserved. Page 2 2014-09-18 Dr. Mikhail Roshchin, Senior Key Expert for Diagnostic Analytics Siemens Industrial Turbomachinery AB Siemens is present in the areas: Healthcare, Energy, Infrastructures and Cities, and Industry 340,000 (48,000 R&D) co-workers SIT: 2,800 (500 R&D) + 700 external SIT: 12 000 MSEK turnover SIT: 95% of sales is exported SIT: 16,000 visitors annually Page 3 Copyright © Siemens Industrial Turbomachinery AB 2012. Adaptation to constant change Wikipedia: M.C. Escher, Sky and water, 1938 Restricted © Siemens Industrial Turbomachinery AB 2014. All rights reserved. Page 4 Oil & Gas and Industrial Applications Services Big Data and Diagnostics – SIT perspective Maturity in industry Price of technology Quickly increasing fleet Large amount of data New business model Information hub New tools Page 5 Copyright © Siemens Industrial Turbomachinery AB 2012. Big Data and Diagnostics – SIT perspective 0 Security Breaches ~1500 1660 Investigation Reports Signals 1603 Periodic Reports 7 TeraBytes 850,000 Files Processed 1 Page 6 PetaByte (CERN) 500,000 Automated Tasks Copyright © Siemens Industrial Turbomachinery AB 2012. Moving into the future of gas turbine operation Today Page 7 New Copyright © Siemens Industrial Turbomachinery AB 2012. Pay as you generate! #starts Guarantee limit Peak operation profile box Fee Y*X SEK per MWh in peak area Cap on #starts Contract still valid Predicted operation profile box Payment X SEK / MWh MWh Lower limit >X GWh/yr Operation point <X GWh/yr Upper limit X GWh/yr We are in the same boat, a running engine is a good engine Page 8 Copyright © Siemens Industrial Turbomachinery AB 2012. Lifing predictions Customer operation profile Page 9 Functions for creep, corrosion, etc. Life consumption predictions Copyright © Siemens Industrial Turbomachinery AB 2012. Risk Calculation Model - Cost of Risk Cost of risk for an event caused by a component Page 10 = Probability or Expectation of an event caused by a component * Cost for an event caused by a component Copyright © Siemens Industrial Turbomachinery AB 2012. Scope based on operating conditions Time Page 11 Copyright © Siemens Industrial Turbomachinery AB 2012. Integration of life prognostics and diagnostics for efficient treatment plans Deviation Time Page 12 Copyright © Siemens Industrial Turbomachinery AB 2012. Integration of life prognostics and diagnostics for efficient treatment plans Treatment Time Diagnostics for avoiding trips & forced outages Page 13 Copyright © Siemens Industrial Turbomachinery AB 2012. Remote Diagnostic Service Main tasks Restricted © Siemens Industrial Turbomachinery AB 2014. All rights reserved. Page 14 Oil & Gas and Industrial Applications Services Remote Diagnostic Service MGT Analysis perspective / Failure modes Existing feature Current R&D / Pilot Planned R&D Start-up and roll-out analysis using vibrations Basic Event , Package Analyzer, Start Attempts, ISO normalized values Positioning of Bleed Valve, Variable Guide Vane GT Performance + Performance Degradation: Turbine, Axial Compressor Lube Oil System: Filter, Cooler/Heater Sensor check Sensor Validation Predictive Trender Trip Analysis Vibrations: Gear Box, Couplings, Generator Combustion: Ignitors, Filter Rate of Change ∆P Event analysis of alarms from control system Gas Fuel System Valves Sequence of Events Analysis Combustion: Pulsation, Burners Failure Modes Operational Pattern Analysis & Fault Detection Event analysis - auxiliaries syssurgetectionotection Ventilation System Air intake filter: Clogging Vibrations: Bearings Lube Oil Tank Vibration (asynchronous) Restricted © Siemens Industrial Turbomachinery AB 2014. All rights reserved. Page 15 Oil & Gas and Industrial Applications Services Data analysis tools Specific Rules and Trending Early Warning Event Processing Automated Reasoning Timeseries Data (Analytics, Trending) Knowledge Base (Fingerprints, Models and Rules) Knowledge Base (Patterns and Rules) Knowledge Base (Cases and Rules) Sensor Check Inferred Events Out-of-Range Pattern Detection Sequence of Events Analysis Performance Complex Event Analysis Case-based Reasoning Vibration Sensor Validation Text mining Event Analyzer Predictive Trender Performance Index Auxiliaries Analyzer Bearing Monitor Compressor Monitor Combustion Combustion Pulsation Restricted © Siemens Industrial Turbomachinery AB 2014. All rights reserved. Page 16 Oil & Gas and Industrial Applications Services Question for the future How to efficiently transfer wisdom to systems? Restricted © Siemens Industrial Turbomachinery AB 2014. All rights reserved. Page 17 Oil & Gas and Industrial Applications Services Siemens Industrial Turbomachinery AB Big Data and Diagnostics Dr. Christer Karlsson, Advisory Expert in Remote Diagnostics © Siemens AG 2014. All rights reserved. This document contains forward-looking statements and information – that is, statements related to future, not past, events. These statements may be identified either orally or in writing by words as “expects”, “anticipates”, “intends”, “plans”, “believes”, “seeks”, “estimates”, “will” or words of similar meaning. Such statements are based on our current expectations and certain assumptions, and are, therefore, subject to certain risks and uncertainties. A variety of factors, many of which are beyond Siemens’ control, affect its operations, performance, business strategy and results and could cause the actual results, performance or achievements of Siemens worldwide to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements that may be expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. For us, particular uncertainties arise, among others, from changes in general economic and business conditions, changes in currency exchange rates and interest rates, introduction of competing products or technologies by other companies, lack of acceptance of new products or services by customers targeted by Siemens worldwide, changes in business strategy and various other factors. More detailed information about certain of these factors is contained in Siemens’ filings with the SEC, which are available on the Siemens website, www.siemens.com and on the SEC’s website, www.sec.gov. Should one or more of these risks or uncertainties materialize, or should underlying assumptions prove incorrect, actual results may vary materially from those described in the relevant forward-looking statement as anticipated, believed, estimated, expected, intended, planned or projected. Siemens does not intend or assume any obligation to update or revise these forward-looking statements in light of developments which differ from those anticipated. Trademarks mentioned in this document are the property of Siemens AG, it's affiliates or their respective owners. Page 19 Copyright © Siemens Industrial Turbomachinery AB 2012.