Automotive :
A long term perspective
Dr. Johan Van Zyl
President & CEO Toyota Motor Europe
President & CEO, Toyota South Africa Motors
CEO, Europe and Africa Regions
Managing Officer, Toyota Motor Corporation
December 10th, 2015
TOYOTA MOTOR EUROPE
Today
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Smart efficiency dominates the top trends
over the last years
2012
2013
Smart Efficiency/
E-Mobility
2014
Smart Efficiency/
E-Mobility
Connected
Mobility
1
Connected
Mobility
Smart Efficiency/
E-Mobility
Design
2
2015
Smart Efficiency/
E-Mobility
1
Design
Design
Design
Connected
Mobility
Connected
Mobility
Budget Cars
Budget Cars
Quality
Quality
Safety
Quality
Safety
Safety
Quality
Safety
Budget Cars
Budget Cars
Shared Mobility
Shared Mobility
Shared Mobility
Shared Mobility
0%
10%
20%
30%
0%
10%
20%
30%
Source: Prime Research: Most important trends in the automotive industry
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0%
10%
20%
30%
0%
1
10%
20%
30%
Prius concept @ 1995 Tokyo Motorshow
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Hybrid technology evolution
Fuel efficiency
l/100 km
5.1
4.3
First-generation Prius
Second-generation Prius
(3)
3.9
HV system cost
Current Prius
New-generation Prius
Hybrid Vehicles technology significantly evolved
in fuel efficiency with reduced cost
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Hybrid global sales
8 million
Cumulative 8
1.6
Million
Per year
Million
6
1.2
Sales (per year)
5M
Sales (cumulative)
4
0.8
3M
2
0
0.4
1M
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0
January to July
More than 8 million HVs in world wide cumulative sales in 2015
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1 millionth Hybrid in Europe
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Hybrid: Impact on CO2
8 million
8
1.6
6
1.2
Cumulative
Per year
Million
5M
Sales (per year)
0.8
4
Sales (cumulative)
0
3M
0.4
1M
2
0
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
20
Cumulative
Million
0
2015 January to July
0
4
CO2 reduction amount (per year)
40
8
CO2 reduction amount (cumulative)
Million Te
60
Million Te/year
58 million t
12
58 million tonnes of cumulative CO2 reduction compared
to same class gasoline vehicles
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Hybrid: Mid term target
Million 15
2020 TARGET
Cumulative
15 million HVs
8
1
0
1997
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2050
HV target cumulative 15 millions in 2020, to lead next generation vehicles
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Developing Hydrogen FCV for 20 years
FCEV Fuel
H2 Stored in adsorbing alloy
1996
1999
FCHV-4 Fuel
FCHV
FCV-R Fuel
Hydrogen stored in
high-pressure tanks
Toyota-made tanks,
1st FCV homologated
Mirai precursor
2001
2002
2005
2009
2011
2015
FCHV-3 Fuel
FCHV-5 Fuel
FCHV-adv Fuel
Mirai
Hydrogen
(adsorbing alloy)
Hydrogen generated on-board
by reforming on gasoline
New stack,
stainless steel cells
Revolutionary Titanium stack,
3.1 kW/L world record
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H2 helps addressing some key problems
CLIMATE
CHANGE
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AIR
QUALITY
ENERGY
SECURITY
CARRIER (FUEL)
VEHICLE
• Oil
• Gas
• Coal
• Gasoline
• Diesel
• Gas
ICE Vehicle
HV
Nuclear
Conventional
PRIMARY ENERGY
PHV
Bio
Solar
Hydro
Wind
Electricity
EV
Hydrogen
FCV
Geothermal
WHY HYDROGEN?
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Electric
RENEWABLE
FOSSIL FUELS
Hydrogen: a broad range of sources
Sales: Mirai sales plan @ 2020 and after
GLOBAL:
More than 30,000/year around 2020 and after
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About 5,680 FCV related Toyota patent
ITEM
FC stack
High-pressure hydrogen tanks
FC system control
Hydrogen station
NUMBER OF PATENTS
TO BE FREE
FREE USE PERIOD
Approx. 1,970
Approx. 290
Until the end
of 2020
Approx. 3,350
Approx. 70
No expiration
Announcement at CES on January 6
by TMS SVP Bob Carter
Toyota share all patents for free to accelerate the spread of FCV
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Looking forward
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Annual greenhouse gas emissions
Baseline scenario
(+3.7~4.8℃)
(RPC8.5)
1,000 Tg CO2 140
Eq./year
120
100
80
60
Below 2℃
scenario
(RPC2.6)
40
20
0
20
2000
2020
2040
2060
Full-scale initiatives to reduce CO2 emissions
2080
2100
Zero or less
Regarding GHG emissions, there is no time to lose
Source: From the IPCC Working Group III 5th Assessment Report (2014)
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New Vehicle
Zero CO2
Emissions Challenge
Challenge of
Minimizing and
Optimizing
Water Usage
Challenge of
Establishing a
Recycling-based
Society and Systems
Life Cycle
Zero CO2
Emissions Challenge
Plant Zero CO2
Emissions Challenge
Challenge of
Establishing a Future
Society in Harmony
with Nature
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CO2 reduction initiatives
Energy saving
Reduced use of fossil fuels
Energy diversity
Renewable energy
CO2 - free hydrogen
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ENGINE
HV
PHV
EV
FCV
CO2
reduction
Hybrid is central
Sustainable Mobility
Energy diversity
CO2 reduction
Air quality
HYBRID
TECHNOLOGY
Gasoline,
diesel
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Gaseous
fuels
Biofuels
Synthetic
fuels
Electricity
Hydrogen
Sustainable mobility roadmap
FCV
HV/PHV
Vehicle size
Route bus
Passenger car
EV
Delivery
vehicle
Full-size truck
HV
Short-distance
commuter vehicle
FCV (BUS)
Home delivery truck
EV
FCV
Personal mobility
PHV
Travel distance
EV: Short-distance
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HV & PHV: Wide- use
FCV: Medium-to-long distance
A smart energy grid with H2
Smart grid concept extended to smart energy grid (Power + HyGrid)
Renewable power is highly intermittent (wind, solar…)
H2 is an effective storage mean for renewable electricity
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Long term trends by engine types
Sales
volume
HV
Conventional
PHV
PHV
FCV
FCV
2010
2020
Accelerate next generation vehicle
development toward 90% CO2 reduction
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EV
EV
2050
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Life cycle Zero CO2
Disposal/recycling
Maintenance
Specific parts
for next generation
vehicles increase
CO2
Driving
Fuel production
Parts/vehicle production
Material production
Gasoline
vehicles
HV
MIRAI
New generation
Vehicles
Zero
In the future
Next generation vehicle approaches zero CO2 during driving
however, steps back in material, parts/vehicle production
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Life cycle Zero CO2
CURRENT LIFE CYCLE CO2
2050 LIFE CYCLE CO2
Maintenance
Parts/
Vehicle
production
Material
production
FUTURE LIFE CYCLE CO2
TO BE ZERO
Disposal
Parts/
Vehicle
production
Driving/
Fuel production
Material
production
Driving/
Fuel production
Continuous challenge toward the future Zero life cycle CO2
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Focus on 2 pillars
Reduced by low
CO2-emitting production
technologies and daily
Kaizen activities
CO2 emissions under BAU
Plant CO2 emissions ➡
Aiming for zero in the long run
2001
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Reduced by using
renewable energy
and hydrogen
2030
2050
Initiatives for reduction by low CO2
production technologies and daily Kaizen activities
Index
100
Reduction of CO2 emissions
per vehicle at a new plant
50
Approx.
1/3
0
2001
Present
2015
2020
2030
Aiming for reduction to approx. 1/2 by 2020, and to approx. 1/3 by 2030
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Global water resource risk
9.1 billion
people
1.5x
40％
The world’s population is
forecast to be approx.
9.1 billion by 2050
The world demand for
water is forecast to
increase by 55% by 2050
40% of the world's
population will be
water-stressed, or facing
water shortages
The risk of water resource shortage is increasing globally
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Specific initiatives @ Toyota Motor
Manufacturing France
REDUCE WATER INTAKE
Reduce the amount of industrial water
use through rainwater storage
EFFICIENT USE (RECYCLING)
Improve water recycling efficiency
with filtration equipment
DRAINAGE RECYCLING
Reuse water by recycling drainage
Recycle
Drainage
Reuse
Filtration
equipment
Reduce water consumption in all processes and
introduce recycling technology
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Use of water at plants
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Recycling initiatives
a. Promotion of iron, resin and aluminum recycle
b. Use of bio resin in vehicles
c. From disposal batteries,
to stationary secondary batteries
d. Cutting-edge recycling technology
for rare metals
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M
a
Toyota
GreenWave
Toyota Today
For Tomorrow
Education For
Sustainable
Development
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Importance of Cooperation of all
stakeholders
Governments
Energy
suppliers
Carbon free
Mobility & Society
Customers
Industry
Zero CO2 Challenge in cooperation with stakeholders
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Thank you
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